I'm so tired of ifs. We need a backup plan. We need to draft someone who might be more of a consistently great shooter, passer, blocker, and defensive player than Jalen has been the past 3 years. I'm sick of the rollercoaster performances. Time to draft Sheppard and take a chance.
A good way to show how jump shooting isn't the be all end all of offensive impact: Look at on/off impact on team offense for all players on this roster according to Cleaning the Glass. The top 4 in order are: 1. FVV 2. Jock(small sample size) 3. Jalen 4. Sengun. Bari is actually near the bottom, someone who is considered a "good shooter". https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/11/onoff#tab-team_efficiency You have to pay a subscription for the entire list but you can still confirm the ranking by searching for each individual player on the roster and do the ranking from there. Jalen at the end of the day would be a B for the season not a C. His impact on offense goes far beyond making three pointers. You draft Sheppard because this a weal draft class and this team could use sold shooting from the bench. Ya it's a wast eif a top 3 draft pick but this is the year to waste a top 3 draft pick as the top 10 has no clear separation.
I think the Rockets need a 1 & 5. The 2, 3, & 4 are pretty stocked between Green, Eason, Thompson, Smith and Whitmore. Those guys, to varying degrees of success, seem capable of soaking up the minutes there moving forward. The 5 really just needs to be a a guy who can back up Sengun. Preferably either a strong defender/shot blocker or outside shooter (or both). If Amen takes steps toward being a point guard then the Rockets should be looking at someone like Reed Sheppard. A combo guard whose shot compliments Amen. If Amen isn't looking like the pg of the future I might look at Devin Carter as a piece that would fit nicely with the rest of the core. For now, I want Sheppard and Adem Bona with the Rockets SRP.
Ha, not sure if this is a coincidence, but Hoop Intellect just mocked this exact result: I'd actually be pretty happy with that I think.
I do enjoy his channel but I had not seen that. As far as just picking at 3 and 44 those are my guys. Im also interested in trade down options as I think Sheppard could be available in the 7-10 range given who is picking 1-7. Idk, I'd hate to chance it but I'm always looking for value.
Yeah I figured it was coincidence, just was funny since I saw that video just as it was released, then saw your post. I didn't even think about Bona for the 2nd rd. That would be nice. I go back and forth about trading down. I think in practice you probably won't get that much trading down, and I also think SAS or some of those other teams might also take Reed if he's available.
Jabari and Amen are improving, and we have Adams now to backup Sengun. I'd rather address the biggest issue first, which is our 3 PT shooting proficiency compared to the great teams. I'd prefer another center or wing in later picks or in a trade next year if we can't do with what we've got.
Sengun/Adams Smith/Eason Amen/Brooks Green/Cam FVV/Amen/Reed would be fine with me if we don’t want to chase a star
PG - B Fred/Amen SG - A JG/Cam SF - B Brooks/Tari PF - C Bari/? C - A Sengun/Adams I think we actually have a deep team but we do need a 3pt specialist. Also, I think we need a little more size. Either go get a SG, SF, and PF that can shoot. Because we have Cam and Tari, who can play multiple positions as well as being capable of starting, I think we should find a shooter that has size and can play defense. You have guys out there like: Buddy Hield 3pt specialist Gary Trent Jr 3 and D guy Bol Bol stretch 4/5 for cheap Mo Bamba stretch 4/5 for cheap Malcolm Brogdon playmaker/3 and D guy via trade Marcus Smart defensive specialist/ combo guard via trade Just to name a few. The guards will definitely cost more than the bigs. If we are going off of size, the PF position is the hole. Is there any other PF with size that can shoot the 3 ball?
Our biggest need right now is clearly shooting guard, and it's not even close. If Jalen busts, and he's walking a tightrope, we got nobody. (Maybe Amen could become a Wade-esque SG?) Long-term, it's just the backcourt in general. We're solid 3-5.
I feel good about our frontcourt, especially with bulky Aquaman available. Sengun, Adams, Lansdale, Jabari, Tari, and Uncle Jeff is a pretty good group. A- for depth and talent. The wings are a different story. I don't see Brooks starting this year in front of Amen, but the org may want Amen to focus only on PG. That leaves Brooks, Cam, and Tari as a swing guy between 3 and 4. Not ideal. C+ with marks off for inconsistency. Guard play really depends on Green, and probably more on the defensive end than the offensive (shocker, I know). FVV and Amen could be a solid pair at PG. Pick up Shep and you have some swing options between the four of them. Adding Reed makes us two deep at every position, depending on where you put him and Amen. B given the current results, but could be an A based on potential. Regardless, I'm looking forward to the internal growth. Thinking back on life, it's amazing how much you can mature in just a year or two in your early 20s.
In terms of offense or defense because offensively the sg position is one of the most impactful on/off positions we have offensively with Green. I would say we are locked in at Center and SG as our most certain positions.
I mean, I think there are massive questions right now with Jalen--in terms of his future he's almost still just a promising rookie, since he basically hasn't progressed as a scorer since he got into the league (emphasis on the "scorer" part, he's gotten better in other areas, but the starting point was bad-bad). So going position by position, short-term, we got: Point Guard: 2 players -- FVV, Amen Small Forward: 3-4 players -- Dillon, Tari, Cam, Amen (if he turns out not to be a point guard) Power Forward: 2 players -- Jabari, Tari Center: 3 players, and one of them looks almost guaranteed to make an all-star game in the near future -- Alpi, Adams, Jock Shooting guard: 1 player who is coming off a disappointing season--Jalen (I do not see Cam as a shooting guard. Maybe he could get some minutes there but I see him as a wing who leans heavily toward the SF side of things.) Now, longer-term, after FVV and Dillon leave, I think you can argue point guard and shooting guard might be equally thin--Amen due to uncertainty about whether point guard is truly his position, and Jalen, again, because he just hasn't lived up to expectations as a scorer so far.
As a offensive player he had the third best impact on offense according to cleaning the glass behind FVV and Landale (small sample size). Offense is more than output on paper. It's about how defenses guard you and how much gravity you utilize to generate secondary and tertiary assists. He collapses defenses rather frequently because of how easily he gets by perimeter defenses. That's a trait unique to Green on this team that makes his offensive role important and impactful.
I agree mostly except Green was a big fat F for 3/4 of the season. I agree he was an A+ during his streak which gives me some hope.
Jalen Green was a weak pick-and-roll prospect coming out of the G League. Not only was his handle not refined, his decision-making left much to be desired. His passing skill was rudimentary, as was his real-time processing ability. Fast Forward 3 years..... Houston has prospects behind Green on the totem pole that are flat-out outplaying him. Not only is this a black-eye on the organization for drafting him 2nd in 2021, their pending financial crunch will force the issue. Green will be dealt by the next trade deadline if he doesn’t step up in a major way. That’s how these things typically go. Hell, with how well Eason and Whitmore are playing this year, it will take a monumental stretch of games to fight off obvious internal conversations about Green’s starting spot. As someone who viewed expectations of a “third year leap” for Green to be impractical, we’re kind of well beyond that point. The reality is even if he shouldn’t have been expected to take a leap this year, he kind of has to do that to save his starting spot on this team. The competition coming from behind him is too stiff. Houston has drafted well enough to be able to move forward without him as part of their long-term core. https://www.rednationhoops.com/p/what-is-jalen-greens-best-path-forward If Green doesn't make a gigantic leap to improve his shooting proficiency this year as a starter then signing him long term and not drafting Sheppard could be a huge mistake.
I hope they give Jalen no more than 10 games starting next season to get his **** together. If he does not start off at least 50% of his streak level he should be benched and traded by the deadline. 50% of his streak level should be his absolute floor going forward. I hope we do not waste half a season or more trying to jump start Green like we did last year. Either he finally starts off playing well or goodbye.
I mean you really didn't do any analysis. Green came into the league with tunnel vision and yet would never be able to average more turnovers than assists like Cam because his baseline ball skills were significantly superior to Cam entering the league. There is a baseline level of ball skills that prevents you from averaging more turnovers than assists because then you have the ability to manipulate set half court defenses with a handle to create easy reads for even people with tunnel vision. But if you don't have the ball skills and try to do this you end up with more turnovers than the easy reads you create. Cam and Jalen have the same exact rookie adjusted scoring efficiency with them main difference being that Green had almost double the rate of self creation with the gap in unassisted fgs made being the same gap between the career rate of Kevin Durant and Clint Capella. https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/11/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Green this season had the third best on/off impact in team offensive possessions. Behind only FVV and Landale(small sample size, more prone to noise) The problem with Cam is that he has tunnel vision AND A lack of ball skills to prevent him from worrying more turnovers than assists even in his limited role. Imagine expanding that role. It would be disastrous. And Eason? If you have any hopes of I'm being some on ball creator, you are chasing a folks errand I suggest you actually watch games.
