I could be betting that neither Dillingham nor Sheppard has anything to do with Iverson, Ky and Steph. Got your point though.
Let's add that Sengun is of the Jokic mode. Jabari is of the Garnett mode. Jalen is of the Kobe mode.
Steve Nash? One of the greatest ever in terms of point guard skills? I don't see that at all on Reed's tape. He's really more of a combo guard, his ballhandling is nowhere remotely close to Nash's level, and his passing isn't that spectacular either. Maybe he can become something like Kyle Lowry or Mike Conley if he develops his point guard skills. My comps for Risacher, by the way: Floor: Nicolas Batum Ceiling: Khris Middleton
We need size all around. We have plenty of talented athletes but they're thin. Adams will help, absolutely, we need his bruising but he's missed a BUNCH of games in his last 5 seasons so I question his availability. Especially if we are trying to make a playoff push late in the season.
We need shooting A LOT more than we need size...I mean we start two 6'11 players already and have 2 7 footers at backup C spots.
It is a crazy ceiling that is super unlikely to happen (like 1% outcome), but I don't think it is crazy. Reed threw it out as a comp (what he aspires to be I guess), and I'm pretty sure Sam Vecenie threw it out as a super high ceiling for him if everything hits. I personally would probably go with that too vs someone like Curry I think. Of course, to repeat again, neither is likely to happen (similar to Sengun being Jokic, Jalen being MJ, Jabari being KD, etc). I am probably higher on his passing than you though. If you're not that high on that, then I could see what you're saying.
Ah, well when I talk about ceiling I usually think of a top 10% outcome not like a crazy 1% best case scenario. Maybe that's just me though.
It is interesting that in this 2024 Draft, anyone coming close to AI, Steph or Kyrie would be considered catching lightning in a bottle.
Oh for sure. I'd never willingly throw out those Nash, Curry, etc. comps. Anything like that is setting yourself up for failure. I suppose it will happen 1% of the time, but there's no point in making those predictions now. I think floor, median, and high median (10-25% likely) outcomes are the most useful at this point. If Reed puts up 16 ppg/8 apg on 50/40/90% splits, then we can start talking Steve Nash comps. Full disclosure, I did exaggerate what Sam said based on my memory. Looked it up, and he said something like "somewhere in the ballpark of....not Steve Nash, lower than that...but high." Can watch that here (tried to timestamp it around 44:23, though general Reed talk starts a bit before that): On a general note, the point Sam makes about high skill guys (at a young age) having really high ceilings is something I think people don't fully realize. I don't view a guy like Reed as low upside (relative to someone like Castle, Risacher, etc.) even though his floor should be fairly high.
I’m taking Edey at 3 and betting on him. Size, Hands nice touch and more athleticism than folks thought. We can make other moves to get more shooting.
Definitively differentiating a guy’s p90 vs p95 vs p99 outcome is a fool’s errand I agree. But there is something meaningful to the these kind of comps IMO. Curry, Nash, Stockton, and CP3 are 4 of the best 40 players ever, all at Reed’s size or smaller. Does Reed have a 1% chance or a 5% chance of being them? IDK. But, analytically at least, there hasn’t been any player in the last 15 years who at 19 had a better chance of becoming one of them. The only competition model-wise are Kyrie, who was better but a different sort of player, and Trae, similarly different style but grades out similar to Reed analytically. This means something I think.
Been quite a few honestly. But if that’s all Sheppard was, was a shooter I wouldn’t want him. Dude is an elite defender, really good playmaker and an elite shooter. And has good NBA athleticism
Agreed. I don't like these super high end comps, but I definitely think it's worth looking at guys who put up similar stats in similar situations. And when that list of names is mostly/entirely made up of all-stars, then I'd feel pretty good about rolling with that guy more often than not. Good question. On a completely unrelated note, Jalen Brunson sure is having a good year, isn't he?
