appreciate it. I realize it’s still early but still interesting to talk about it and maybe have some hope for the future
Warning: long post incoming. I don’t feel like starting a separate thread, but not sure which one to put this in, but figured I’d put it here since it deals largely with the minor leagues. Feeling down after today’s loss, I did a fairly deep dive into comparing the current state of the Astros organization to what it was at this time in 2017. The short takeaway is that my longstanding opinion that this farm is only 2-3 elite prospects away from being on par with the farm systems from 2017-2022 is solid. But here’s a rundown of the details: The Astros farm in 2017: Future stars: Teoscar Hernandez (AAA), Kyle Tucker (AA), Framber Valdez (AA), Yordan Alvarez (High A), Wilyer Abreu? (Rookie league) Future solid MLB players: Max Stassi, Tony Kemp, JD Davis, Ramon Laureano, Jake Rogers, Josh Rojas, Abraham Toro, Chas McCormick, Bryan De La Cruz, Patrick Sandoval, Cristian Javier, Cionel Perez, Ronel Blanco, Bryan Abreu, Luis Garcia Top prospects who busted: AJ Reed, Colin Moran, Derek Fisher, Francis Martes, David Paulino, Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron, Forrest Whitley Comparing that to today, the lower levels seem comparable, especially without the benefit of hindsight; there’s no Forrest Whitley-level pitching prospect (yet), but otherwise it looks similar. Going into 2017 no one knew Yordan would be what he became, or that there were a handful of future quality complementary players down there. In AA, there doesn’t seem to be a Framber Valdez on their current pitching staff or a Kyle Tucker in their lineup, but otherwise the rosters are comparable. In AAA, the current roster doesn’t have nearly the level of hype the 2017 group did, but with the benefit of hindsight most of those guys busted, and Teoscar Hernandez was the only future quality big leaguer. So in summary, if you gave the current farm the 2017 versions of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, and Teoscar Hernandez, you’d be pretty set in terms of long term outlook comparable to what Houston had when their run started. Comparing the big league rosters, the 2017 position player roster featured 4 cheap controllable stars in the lineup (Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Springer) supplemented with a couple aging vets (McCann, Beltran), a couple 2nd tier guys on moderate multiyear deals (Gurriel, Reddick), and the appropriate complements to fill in the holes (Gattis, Marisnick, and Marwin). The current group features 2 stars on long term deals (Yordan and Altuve), several 2nd/3rd tier players with varying years of control (Pena, McCormick, Diaz), a pending free agent star (Bregman), a star with one more year of control (Tucker), several fringey regulars or bench players (Dubon, Meyers, Caratini, Singleton), and a dead contract (Abreu) replaced by a rookie with upside and risk (Loperfido). At a high level, for the 2024 outlook to rival 2017, they’d need to add 2 cheap, controllable stars (replacing stars about to enter free agency), or otherwise make it up in the aggregate with existing players improving (I.e., Pena and/or Diaz making the jump into superstar status). The 2017 pitching staff featured 2 ToR SP under short term control (Keuchel and Morton), 2 3rd tier SP in arbitration (McHugh and Fiers), a controllable MoR SP (McCullers), some young complementary P (Devenski, Peacock and Musgrove), 3 veteran arms on moderate free agent deals (Gregerson, Harris, Sipp), and a closer about to entire arbitration (Giles). Similarly the 2024 staff featured 2 ToR SP under short term control (Verlander and Valdez). It has 3 MoR SP under moderate control, although 2 of them were injured (Garcia, McCullers, Javier). The current roster also has a group of young/controllable complementary arms in Blanco, Brown, Arrighetti, Martinez, Dubin, and Bielak. They have 3 RP on relatively expensive free agent deals in Pressly, Hader, and Montero, and 1 elite RP in arbitration (Abreu). I feel the outlook of their bullpen is on par with 2017, assuming the current woes even out, and were ALL their SP healthy, this group would compare nicely with 2017. Pitching health really is a backbreaker. But in terms of outlook I don’t see a glaring difference between the current pitching staff and the one Houston opened with in 2017. I guess all that is to say that this org is not far from where they were at the start of this magical run, in terms of overall surplus value. And if they don’t get back into contention this season, I think they could net enough young talent by trading Tucker, Valdez, and Verlander to get back even with that outlook starting in 2025.
[as my dad used to day: you know you're retired when you don't know the date...you're really retired when you don't know the day of the week...] I've never got the month mixed up before, that's pretty awesome.
I know I'm totally nerding out, but for anyone as geeky as me, here's a rough mapping I did of the top ~150 surplus value players in Houston's organization as of 4/1/17 against the closest comparable in a projected list from 4/1/25: Spoiler: 2025 vs 2017 Org Value 2017 : 2025 MLB Postition Players: Alex Bregman : Yainer Diaz* Carlos Correa : Jeremy Pena* George Springer : Kyle Tucker* Jose Altuve : Jose Altuve Yuli Gurriel : Yordan Alvarez Josh Reddick : Joey Loperfido Jake Marisnick : Jake Meyers Marwin Gonzales : Mauricio Dubon Brian McCann : Victor Caratini Evan Gattis : Jon Singleton Juan Centeno : Cesar Salazar Carlos Beltran : Jose Abreu Nori Aoki : Chas McCormick MLB Pitchers: Lance McCullers : Hunter Brown* Dallas Keuchel : Framber Valdez* Joe Musgrove : Spencer Arrighetti Charlie Morton : Lance McCullers Collin McHugh : Cristian Javier Ken Giles : Josh Hader Mike Fiers : Luis Garcia Will Harris : Bryan Abreu Tony Sipp : Jose Urquidy Brad Peacock : Ronel Blanco Chris Devenksi : Seth Martinez Ashur Tolliver : Tayler Scott Luke Gregerson : Rafael Montero Top 30 Prospects (ranked by 2017 MLB.com list): Francis Martes : Miguel Ullola* Kyle Tucker : Zach Cole* David Paulino : AJ Blubaugh Derek Fisher : Jacob Melton Forrest Whitley : 2024 1st round draft pick Franklin Perez : Alonzo Tredwell Teoscar Hernandez : Kenedy Corona Ramon Laureano : Jeron Williams Daz Cameron : Brice Matthews Miguelangel Sierra : 2025 January Int'l signee Garrett Stubbs : Miguel Palma Gilberto Celestino : Cesar Hernandez JD Davis : Zach Dezenzo Yordan Alvarez : Luis Baez Freudis Nova : Chase Jaworsky Cionel Perez : Jake Bloss Anibal Sierra : Pascanel Ferreras Jonathan Arauz : Camilo Diaz Ronnie Dawson : Nehomar Ochoa Jandel Gustave : Jairo Solis Brady Rodgers : Blair Henley Jake Rogers : Kenni Gomez James Hoyt: Shawn Dubin Riley Ferrell : Andrew Taylor Colin Moran : Pedro Leon Brendan McCurry : Jayden Murray Jason Martin : Cam Fisher Stephen Wrenn : Oliver Carrillo Jorge Alcala : Abel Mercedes Framber Valdez : Jose Fleury Other AAA: AJ Reed : Trey Cabbage Tyler White : Will Wagner Tony Kemp : Jacob Amaya Max Stassi : Luke Berryhill Preston Tucker: Zach Daniels Jack Mayfield : Shay Whitcomb Jon Kemmer : Quincy Hamilton Dean Deetz : Aaron Brown Rogelio Armenteros : Julio Robaina Trent Thornton : Colton Gordon Reymin Guduan : Misael Tamarez Mike Hauschild : Ryan Gusto Jordan Jankowski : Rhett Kouba Brian Holmes : Luis Contreras Kevin Comer : Conner Greene Reid Brignac : Jesus Bastidas Eduardo De Oleo : Cooper Hummel David Martinez : Miguel Diaz Dayan Diaz : Wander Suero Other AA: Drew Ferguson : Colin Barber Ryne Birk: Ryan Johnson Mott Hyde : Jeremy Arocho Antonio Nunez : Tommy Sacco Jamie Ritchie : Collin Price Trent Woodward : John Garcia Arturo Michelena : Rolando Espinosa Alejandro Garcia : Jordan Brewer Akeem Bostick : Nolan DeVos Josh James : Alex Santos II Kent Emanuel : Trey Dombroski Cy Sneed : James Hicks Brock Dykxhoorn : Michael Knorr Ryan Thompson : Tyler Guilfoil Kyle Smith : Jaime Melendez Yoanys Quiala : Brayan De Paula Alex Winkelman: Joe Mancini Andrew Thome : Deury Carrasco Jacob Dorris : Alejandro Torres Other High A: Taylor Jones : Juan Santander Myles Straw : 2024 draft pick Alex De Goti: Alejandro Nunez Randy Cesar : Xavier Casserilla Rodrigo Ayarza : Cristian Gonzalez Anthony Hermelyn : Garret Guillemette Spencer Johnson : Austin Deming Dexture McCall : Tyler Whitaker Elieser Hernandez : Alain Pena Ryan Hartman : 2024 draft pick Hector Perez : Abel Mercedes Matt Bower : Derek True Brett Adcock : Ethan Pecko Justin Ferrell : Colby Langford Sebastian Kessay : Kelly Austin Carlos Sierra : Manuel Urias Kevin Hill : 2024 draft pick Ralph Garza : 2024 draft pick Nick Hernandez : Jose Guedez Other A ball: Josh Rojas : German Ramirez Abraham Toro : Waner Luciano Chas McCormick : Luis Rives Chuckie Robinson : 2024 draft pick Wander Franco : Alberto Hernandez JJ Matijevic : 2024 draft pick Troy Sieber : Anthony Huezo Osvaldo Duarte : 2024 draft pick Raymond Henderson : Fernando Caldera Carmen Benedetti : Esmil Valencia Patrick Sandoval : 2024 draft pick Enoli Paredes : Raimy Rodriguez Cristian Javier : Sandy Mejia Michael Feliz : Wilmy Sanchez Ronel Blanco : Alimber Santa Yohan Ramirez : Yeriel Santos Carson LaRue : Jackson Nezuh Dustin Hunt : 2024 draft pick Carlos Sanabria, Abdiel Saldana, Gabriel Valdez : TBD FCL arms Other notable complex league: Nathan Perry : 2024 draft pick Enmanuel Valdez : Sandro Pereira Yorbin Cueta : 2025 January Int'l signee Wilyer Abreu : Anderson Paula Bryan De La Cruz : Eduardo Perez Ronny Rafael : 2025 January Int'l signee Bryan Abreu, Luis Garcia, Angel Macuare, Elian Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Jairo Solis, Humberto Castellanos, Nivaldo Rodriguez : TBD DSL arms I asterisked the players I felt represented meaningful aggregate differences in value between 2025 and 2017. It boils down to a handful of very valuable players: 4 controllable stars, an ace pitcher with another year of control, and 2 elite (MLB Top 20 level) prospects.
Pescanel Ferreras and Collin Price were promoted to AA today; big opportunity for both those guys. Brice Matthews was placed on the injured list for Asheville.
Tyler Whitaker hit his 2nd home run of the season in Asheville's 6-5 win in Winston-Salem earlier today. Edinson Batista threw six innings in relief and allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits (two solo homers), walked one, and struck out three.
Luis Rives is making his debut in the FCL today. Rives, an outfielder from Cuba who was one of the big signings in January, is DHing and is currently 1-3.
OF Esmil Valencia, IF German Ramirez, IF Camilo Diaz, and OF Luis Rives all were big bonus international signees. Diaz is on most Astros Top 30 prospects lists, but I am a big fan of Valencia; he can really hit. OF Karniel Pratt, C Carlos Cauro, C Kedaur Trujillo, and 1B Jancel Villarroel all hit really well in the DSL but those numbers are always to be taken lightly. OF Anthony Huezo was an overslot HS signee from last years draft and has big tools. The position player roster is very very deep and talented. I don’t know anything about any of the pitchers.
Diaz, Ramirez, and Valencia all have 2 RBI today. Ramirez is working on a 4-hit game, while Pratt (who hit his first home run of the season) and Valencia both have three hits. Pratt is somewhat interesting for me... he took a big step forward in his second year in the DSL and he was still at an age-appropriate level. He's a longshot looking to become the first MLB player from Sint Maarten, which is the Dutch portion of the island of St. Martin (the other half is French). It'd be nice to have a look at the rosters, but MLB (and MiLB) doesn't think that's worth sharing since it's the lowest level of minor league baseball. Anthony Cruz pitched four innings and the only hit he allowed was a solo homer. Cruz also walked one and struck out eight. He's another pitcher who signed late and he's pretty ancient by complex-league standards as he will turn 22 in August.
The roster is kept updated here: https://www.milb.com/florida-complex/roster/1998 It does suck they don’t have a link to it on the main milb teams by org page.
Much appreciated. DSL Blue: https://www.milb.com/dominican-summer/roster/601 DSL Orange: https://www.milb.com/dominican-summer/roster/5005
