Two stories in one: 1. GWB is overstaing the situation in Iraq. 2. Iraq really will pay for its own reconstruction. Intel Officials Have Bleak View for Iraq Sep 16, 4:04 AM (ET) By KATHERINE PFLEGER SHRADER WASHINGTON (AP) - The National Intelligence Council presented President Bush this summer with several pessimistic scenarios regarding the security situation in Iraq, including the possibility of a civil war there before the end of 2005. In a highly classified National Intelligence Estimate, the council looked at the political, economic and security situation in the war-torn country and determined that - at best - stability in Iraq would be tenuous, a U.S. official said late Wednesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity. At worst, the official said, were "trend lines that would point to a civil war." The official said it "would be fair" to call the document "pessimistic." The intelligence estimate, which was prepared for Bush, considered the window of time between July and the end of 2005. But the official noted that the document draws on intelligence community assessments from January 2003, before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent deteriorating security situation there. This latest assessment was performed by the National Intelligence Council, a group of senior intelligence officials that provides long-term strategic thinking for the entire U.S. intelligence community. Acting CIA Director John McLaughlin and the leaders of the other intelligence agencies approved the intelligence document, which runs about 50 pages. The estimate appears to differ from the public comments of Bush and his senior aides who speak more optimistically about the prospects for a peaceful and free Iraq. "We're making progress on the ground," Bush said at his Texas ranch late last month. A CIA spokesman declined to comment Wednesday night. The document was first reported by The New York Times on its Web site Wednesday night. It is the first formal assessment of Iraq since the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on the threat posed by fallen Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. A scathing review of that estimate released this summer by the Senate Intelligence Committee found widespread intelligence failures that led to faulty assumptions that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Disclosure of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq came the same day that Senate Republicans and Democrats denounced the Bush administration's slow progress in rebuilding Iraq, saying the risks of failure are great if it doesn't act with greater urgency. "It's beyond pitiful, it's beyond embarrassing, it's now in the zone of dangerous," said Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., referring to figures showing only about 6 percent of the reconstruction money approved by Congress last year has been spent. Senate Foreign Relations Committee members vented their frustrations at a hearing during which State Department officials explained the administration's request to divert $3.46 billion in reconstruction funds to security and economic development. The money was part of the $18.4 billion approved by Congress last year, mostly for public works projects. The request comes as heavy fighting continues between U.S.-led forces and Iraqi insurgents, endangering prospects for elections scheduled for January. "We know that the provision of adequate security up front is requisite to rapid progress on all other fronts," Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Ron Schlicher said. White House spokesman Scott McClellan said circumstances in Iraq have changed since last year. "It's important that you have some flexibility." Hagel, Committee Chairman Richard Lugar, R-Ind., and other committee members have long argued - even before the war - that administration plans for rebuilding Iraq were inadequate and based on overly optimistic assumptions that Americans would be greeted as liberators. But the criticism from the panel's top Republicans had an extra sting coming less than seven weeks before the U.S. presidential election in which Bush's handling of the war is a top issue. "Our committee heard blindly optimistic people from the administration prior to the war and people outside the administration - what I call the 'dancing in the street crowd' - that we just simply will be greeted with open arms," Lugar said. "The nonsense of all of that is apparent. The lack of planning is apparent." He said the need to shift the reconstruction funds was clear in July, but the administration was slow to make the request. State Department officials stressed areas of progress in Iraq since the United States turned over political control of Iraq to an interim government on June 28. They cited advances in generating electricity, producing oil and creating jobs.
The original article with more detail can be found in today's NYT. a quote from the article... The committee's ranking Democrat, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, one of the harshest critics of the Iraq policies, was far more outspoken. "The president has frequently described Iraq as, quote, 'the central front of the war on terror,' " Mr. Biden went on. "Well by that definition, success in Iraq is a key standard by which to measure the war on terror. And by that measure, I think the war on terror is in trouble." http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/16/politics/16intel.html?hp
Why do Republicans Senators Richard Lugar and Chuck Hagel hate America? And why couldn't they wait until after GWB is reelected to start their hating? [Edit: Reducing the number of Lugars ]
Between Hurricane Ivan and "Memogate" this story will not get near the attention it deserves. The "liberal" media does it again...
Supposedly the Repbublican spin on this is gonna be that these are the same scenarios that were in the pre-war intelligence report for possible outcomes, and in that report there were worse conclusions so this isn't that bad.
Well I guess Jr had to pull some kind of stunt to counter this report. And here we have it! Allawi to Address Hill, U.N. as White House Defends Policy By Robin Wright and Thomas E. Ricks Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi will address a joint session of Congress and make high-profile appearances in Washington next week, a debut visit to the United States that the Bush administration will make the centerpiece of a vigorous election-year defense of its troubled Iraq policy, according to U.S. officials. The visit by Iraq's charismatic interim leader, who will also speak to the U.N. General Assembly and be part of a sustained media effort, could provide a boost to President Bush's campaign by reframing the controversial U.S. intervention in Iraq in terms of accomplishments rather than problems, U.S. officials said. Allawi is expected to emphasize the transformation of Iraq since the ouster of Saddam Hussein, to thank the United States on behalf of the Iraqi people and to appeal for ongoing support to complete the job, they said. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A24579-2004Sep15.html
The liberal press is forgetting to mention that Allawi is an accomplished state terrorist. Shame on them.
Oh that is just sad. Shouldn't the fact that Bush has to rely on statements from the leader of the doomed US puppet government in Iraq to get "positive" news make one suspicious? That would be like me hiring a guy into a position where I could fire him at any time and then asking him to tell the company if I'm great or not.
You have to give Rove and company credit. They are ahead of every bad (for Bush) news item coming down the pike. They knew this story would break (although Ivan must blow their minds, as far as great political timing), and had Allawi lined up, ready to go, and have every intention of smothering the story with the aforementioned addresses he'll be making. Anyone who thinks this is coincidental is just selling Bush's politico's short. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a timed "preemptive" leak, to head off the story coming out under circumstances that wouldn't favor Bush. Kerry needs to hammer Bush with this and hammer him hard. And he needs to get Edwards off his sunshine ass and have him do what Cheney has been doing. This is a huge story, and they need to make the most of it, politically. In the "real world", it's damned depressing news. I notice that the silence of Bush's supporters is getting a bit deafening.
