There's far too much baseball left to write off the season, especially with nobody in the division starting out really hot. But whatever "it" is, this team doesn't look like it has it. But more disturbing than the current play is the long term. Dana Brown hasn't really shown us anything, definitely no appearance of the shrewd, calculated moves like Lunhow or Click made. Feels like Crane got cocky and a little power hungry, like maybe he wants to help steer the ship too much, and now we're feeling it. If it continues to spiral, you probably have to think about dealing at least Tucker to try to expedite a rebuild, right?
This season sucks so far. Real hard to want to do deep dives into what is going on with specific players that aren't as established which I usually like doing. One thing I will say is that I partially understand why Dana Brown was saying they were going to use Singleton to spell Abreu a lot in the offseason. I took it as being way too optimistic in Singleton. Now, I'm thinking they knew Abreu was going to be worse than Singleton without Singleton being drastically better than last season (with an optimistic hope Abreu improves, solves whatever his problems are if they aren't just being old, gets healthy, etc.). Really not liking the front office it if that is the case.
I'm not crazy about what I've seen from Dana Brown when it comes to MLB moves (early farm returns are promising though) However as clearly hands on as Crane has been, it's hard to say what authority Brown has to make actual moves. For all I know he recognized that there was trouble with Abreu, but he wasn't allowed to invest any real resources in a replacement because Crane was committed to Abreu and his huge contract. I felt the same way with how inactive we were with bullpen moves given we had so many question marks. We know Click was stonewalled when he tried to make changes that weren't popular with Crane and his "braintrust". As soon as the Hader move was announced, I wasn't over the moon because I thought all of that money would have been better used to seal potential cracks around the roster instead of one huge luxury purchase, but I'm sure that option wasn't available to Brown.
Astros Temperature Chart (era) Ronel Blanco SP----------1.33 Cristian Javier SP---------1.54 Rafael Montero RP-------1.64 Framber Valdez SP-------2.19 Seth Martinez RP---------2.25 Tayler Scott RP------------2.61 Bryan Abreu RP-----------4.91 Brandon Bielak RP-------5.11 J.P. France SP-------------7.08 Ryan Pressly RP-----------8.31 Josh Hader RP------------8.38 Hunter Brown SP---------9.68 Parker Mushinski RP----11.25 Spencer Arrighetti SP----11.57 Shawn Dubin RP----------12.46 (minimum 2 appearances)
Way too early to tell on Dana Brown. First - Brown inherited a very tight payroll and a situation where the manager was able to do whatever he wanted on the field based on winning the World Series. The Abreu and Montero signings were something that ownership and Click were in agreement on. Brown had nothing to do with Verlander - and the budget was basically set. Brown even had limited interaction on the Verlander trade other than giving his opinions on the prospects and Crane listened to him. This off season Crane wanted Hader - from what I understand Brown liked Hader too - and I think that deal still ends up being good for the Astros. At this point Brown's only real moves have been for the back up catcher - the draft and the manager hire. Crane wanted a big name, but no one ever really materialized.
Sounds about right… and we should all recall the pulse in here when the Abreu announcement was first made. There were very little detractors. But now that its painfully obvious that he’s not simply injured, not simply a slow starter, not simply just in a slump… (as he literally is showing age-related decline in bat speed, barrel rate, and the types of pitches he just can’t square up with meager average fastballs owning him)… this would be the time that any GM, front office exec, analytics nerd, former player who looks only for the eye test would recognize the game has likely past him for good. If they don’t have a contingency plan or timetables in place for J Abreu being formulated… they’re not doing their jobs (regardless of who is in really calling all the shots), and they need to be called out for it.
Hell of a coincidence for so many players to be underachieving all at the same time. Bad luck? Or is something else going on behind the scenes? I don't know, but it's definitely unusual.
Anyone fired yet?? Asking for a friend. He is too busy reading the backs of all of his baseball cards.
Brown was responsible for bringing in Caratini, Taylor Scott, and several guys who haven't panned out (yet?) like Cabbage, Coleman, and a ton of relievers. They still have time. By all early reviews his draft has a chance to be good. Considering the position he started in and limitations, I have no issues with him so far. The 2024 team is broken without legitimate explanation. It's only been 23 games and the division is still within reach, so panic its not panic time but eyes must be wide open. This has to turn around very quickly now or else a major change or changes must be made. Playoff odds are down to 23.1% according to Baseball Reference and 53.2% per Fangraphs. If they both get below 20% I think trading Bregman must be considered. Make him a 6 yr / $150M offer and trade him if he doesn't want it. This team still has the mix of talent, experience, and players in their primes to compete again in 2025. By adding players the caliber that Bregman would bring increases that and opens the window a bit more. At that point, its a better option than the QO compensation.
Here’s who I would assign to each executive: Crane: Verlander, Hader, J Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, McCullers, Montero; I also think Crane was integral to extending Pressly. Luhnow: Framber, Brown, Javier, France, Bielak, Dubin, Martinez, Pressly, B Abreu, Henley, Mushinski, Whitley, Garcia, Urquidy, Pena, Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Kessinger, Julks, Hensley, Salazar Click: Arrighetti, Diaz, Dubon D Brown: Scott, Blanco, Kuhnel, Coleman, Caratini, Singleton, Ortega, Sousa, Murfee, Graveman, Cabbage, Amaya; Brown gets partial credit for extending Javier. You are correct in that it is really hard to judge Brown because he has had no capital (payroll, prospects) to work with. Based on early returns I do hope he is allowed to oversee 3-4 more drafts since he seems to be good at that. It is very hard to judge how he’s been on trades. Ironically if Houston falls out of contention then the deadline will play more to his strengths of scouting prospects rather than trading away prospects for proven players. I think it’s very notable that Crane had a heavy hand in 5/6 of the bad contracts on Houston’s books.
@Nook - what is the mood like within the Astros club house and front office ? Are people panicking or do players and FO think they’ll rebound ? Any discussion at all about firing Espada or is that all just fan bluster ? Thanks for any insights !
For the most part, this is right on, IMO. Seth Martinez was a rule 5 pick by Click in 2020. Other than that only opinion. I think Click probably needs some credit/blame for the Pressly extension. Luhnow must get some credit for Blanco for originally signing him even if Brown identified and chose to make him a starter. If you go down that road, then you have to start looking at players brought in by one GM but developing and "arriving" under another and then must give partial credit on several.
The Jose Abreu of 2022 was a perfect fit for the Astros in 2023 and 2024. The problem is that isn't who they got - now last season, after rest for awhile on his back, they got him back - and they did post injection as well - but this season he has been horrendously bad.... and either his back is so wrecked that he is done, or his back is bad and his skills have diminished to the point that he isn't even a AA level player. For the first time - this weekend Brown was willing to discuss taking playing time away from Abreu, and him not playing anymore - he couched it in terms of "if he doesn't get hot", but it was clear that Brown knows there is a legitimate problem. Playing Dubon at first everyday or Carintini isn't a real answer either - they need a player not on their current big league team. That can be Loperfido or that can be a trade for a player outside the organization. With the number of close games they are losing because of the pen - and injuries to the staff - they really cannot afford to lose games because of Abreu. Hindsight is always 20/20 - they could have had Justin Turner as their 1st baseman, they could try trading for someone like a Brent Rooker or Alex Kirilloff or Eloy Jimenez... or Garrett Cooper.... but good luck pulling off a deal this early.
Honestly all of the free agents signed that are not for the minimum and all of the extensions (good and bad) have Crane's hands on them. In many cases the GM at the time also supported the signings and extensions. For example, Crane worked hard on the Altuve and Alvarez signings - he spoke to the players personally and their agents and was involved in the negotiating. He did the same with McCullers and Bregman. He dodged some bullets with Correa and Springer - but it was only a matter of time before some of the signings were not great. Abreu was bad but that had the blessing of the GM (Click) and was mapped out before Click left. The Montero signing was the same, and he is better this season but it is still questionable. The Hader signing is still up in the air at this point. Pressly? We got years of use from him for undervalue, Also - I am not so sure Pressly is done. He has a high strikeout rate and his FIP is in the 3's.
