This draft has a plethora of gems and is loaded with big men this year. We're in a good position to add some much needed size and bolster our frontcourt which is one of our weaker points.
We already have a plethora of young guys we're developing. Whitmore COULD be a superstar in the making, but unless we see significant changes this offseason he'll still be coming off the bench. Unless a can't miss back-up center is available I think we should cash 'em in. Even if we're trading for future picks.
So we get the 9th pick unless we get lucky with the ping pong balls. Not too bad. Here's hoping the Nets suck even worse next year.
can you just add the 7% with our pick to the 20% chance with the Brooklyn pick? I’m not sure statistics work that way. Could be wrong; didn’t do well with the statistics course. Maybe we can get a NASA rockets fan to weigh in.
A lot of people are saying we need size but is that accurate for next season. Adams will be healthy and he's definitely a solid backup big man. Londale was good down the stretch when he was finally healthy and used correctly. Obviously Sengun will be healthy. Jabari is clearly the starter at 4. Tari will also be back. Not sure we actually need size unless a trade is made
Yes, that is how it works. Make it 100 ping pong balls to make it easier for you to imagine. If you had 20 balls, that would be a 20% chance for your ball being selected. If you added another 7 from that pool of 100, you now have a 27% chance of winning. Not the best draft, so we will probably win it...
If we keep the pick, priority has to be shooting. Now, I think we can be flexible with the position the shooter plays, but ideally a defensive minded PG that can shoot/pass would be 1st target. After that, I'd look for a young big that could also be a rim protector. Adams will be primary backup to Alpi and I could see them playing together some. Jock could be retained or traded. Boban will probably be gone although he showed he still has some juice against the Clippers. Reed Shepard would be an ideal fit, but Dalton Knecht or Ja'Kobe Walter may be best shooters available when we pick.
You are correct. We definitely don't need any more size, we're a pretty huge team. Jabari will be a 6'11 PF with added muscle and more experienced on the interior. If Sengun holds his 3PA constant he will likely improve his % now that shooting is his and coach's focus - that will allow us to play even a triple big frontcourt of Adams/Sengun/Jabari. Amen and Whitmore are elite size in the backcourt. This size thing is just a Texan Rockets fan obsession. Other than a Yao/Mutombo duo, they have never been happy with our height. It's a lot of non sense that has nothing to do with winning championships to be honest. As far as draft goes I hope we're not the only stupid team that drafts for skills or position or height. Just draft the player with the highest ceiling and work ethic. Nurture will take care of the rest.
I don't think you can, my original post didnt really go into that level of detail, because if you do that with Detroit and Washington then the total would be over 104% chance of one of them getting a top 4 pick, which i dont think makes sense. I think for the Rockets case though they have a 20.3% chance w the BKN pick and a 7% chance w their own pick, I think it would be around 27%, but not exactly. You can add the % chance for the #1 pick together for sure, for the top 4 you are likely correct, I don't think you can. So #1 pick odds would be 4.5% +1.5% = 6%.
No way Sheppard drops to #9. Damn. Was hoping for 10 years of Amen-Sheppard lighthearted religious zingers from Ackerman.
I originally posted the 27% as an estimate, just adding BKN and HOU top 4 odds together as a rough number, but I don't think that works out exactly when we are talking about odds of a top 4 pick. It works out if we were just talking about the #1 overall pick, you can take 4.5% (BKN) + 1.5% (HOU) = 6%. I don't think you can just add the % chances when talking about getting a top 4 pick though. If you take Detroit and Washington and add their top 4 pick odds together, it is over 100%, but there is a chance neither of them get a top 4 because Detroit has a 48% chance at #5 and Washington has a 48% chance at 5 or 6.
I don't think we can go into this draft thinking about need - we are basically 2 deep at every position. What we need are difference makers - regardless of position. So I would swing for the fences here. FVV / Amen Green / Whitmore Brooks / Tari Jabari / Green (and/or Tari) Sengun / Adams
