A 7 year extension would take Framber thru the same age (buying out 6 free agent years). Hard to see Houston doing that considering how shaky he’s been, but if Framber wants certainty maybe something like $170M/7yrs would work. Frankly I don’t trust Framber to be that good that long that consistently.
I wouldn't even consider an extension until next off-season. No reason to take on the injury risk plus I need to see if he can pitch well without Maldonado.
Everyone sees it as a one year commitment - but the problem is that if he performs poorly or gets hurt, it is a 3 year commitment at a high dollar amount. These "parachute" contract signings everyone raves about are not always great when Boras has multi years and player only opt outs.
Astros almost got him too when he was a free agent years ago. I am always curious about what would have happened had the Astros signed him then. Obviously he has been a great deal so far.
Hard to know. Sometimes he looks really hittable when he doesn't have his command. On the other hard, he does workout very hard, and he takes great care of himself- sees his psychologist weekly and seems to do everything he can do to preserve himself for a long career. Last year, his issues in the second half were certainly in part the foot injury and being worn down. Whenever you sign a starting pitcher there is concern giving a deal over 3-4 years. Look at the Nationals with Strausburg and any number of other contracts given over the years.
Sale is another example. Verlander looked like he was on the downward slope before getting traded to the Astros. Detroit ate a lot of his salary.
Framber's price just went up but Crane has never been afraid of shorter high AAV contracts. He will be a bit older when he is scheduled for FA (32) so maybe mitigate the risk as much as possible by waiting until next off season and offer 4 yrs / $140M through age 35 season. ($35M AAV). If he has another 195+ IP season averaging a K per inning w/ FIP and WHIP numbers in line w/ #1 SPs then he will either get $35M+ per year, or a7+ year guarantee likely both. Either way his price just shot up well over $120M.
Yup - exactly. I get the fear of 7-8 year deals.... but the cost of a 1-3 year deal isn't great when all of the risk is on the team.
A Giants friend of mine remarked on these signings (the Giants seem to do them a lot) as being a worst case scenario - if they perform the way you expect them to, you lose them back to free agency. And if they fail to perform, you're stuck with them.
Especially w/ SP it's becoming a high roller crap's game. The question is how much risk is a team willing to take on and at what price. After 6 control years ( really even last year or 2 of arbitration) the top 50 SP are getting $25M+ and top 20 are getting $35M+ Framber was 13th in fWAR in 2022 and 12th in 2023. There is little doubt he is a top 20 SP. And pitchers all get hurt eventually.
Especially with a guy like Snell who has been so inconsistent throughout his career It’s really funny to me that I read so much on here about sign Snell, sign Snell And also don’t extend Framber cause he is so inconsistent Lol, what?
Framber became a dude in 2020. Maldonado has been his guy since that COVID season. Maldonado caught every inning Framber threw in 2023 and in 2022 Maldonado caught all but 3 innings that Framber threw. You can thank Dusty for that. I never thought they should or would sign Snell. Also, if Framber has a good season they should extend him... next off season. Framber will be 32 the first season he is a free agent. No reason to rush to it now. Why give him an extra year of injury protection? What if he blows his arm out this year like Woodruff? The Astros would be able to not offer arbitration and save 20ish million, or sign him back to a cheap 2 year deal like the Brewers did with Woodruff.
Yeah but it's better to stuck with them for 3 than for whatever the Angels were stuck with Rendon or the Nats were stuck with Strasburg for.
hopefully just precautionary and not foreshadowing of something more sinister . let’s get Snell! Amiright
The MLBTR article related to this mentioned Verlander’s 2025 vesting option was a player option; I had previously thought it was a vesting option that just turned it into a guaranteed year. If it’s truly a player option, I consider it really likely that Verlander is a free agent after this season. He will either not reach the inning threshold (looking like the most likely outcome), or reach it and have pitched well enough to warrant a bigger contract than $35M/1yr. SO many ToR SP hurt and it’s only the first week of March: JV, Sonny Gray, Giolito, Buehler, Kershaw, Gausman, Bradish, Ray, Scherzer, DeGrom, Senga, Marquez…damn
