Meyers and Dubon look good. Meyers has had 4 walks in 10 plate appearances. If he develops into a poor man's Bregman, we are pretty much set in regards to position players.
It's absurd, like we didnt just steamroll to a chip less than 18 months ago with this exact same group, and were very close to another title last year. There's reasonable concern and then there's stupidity.
Had both Framber and Javier not fallen off in the 2nd half last year, I would feel a little more confident in going into the season with an aging Verlander at the top of the rotation. Unfortunately, they did fall off though, and in a big way. In my opinion, it’s very fair to express concerns about the top of The Astros’ rotation and to acknowledge that depending on it comes with risk to a franchise that has championship aspirations.
Sure.. but the cost to improve over Framber or Javier was insane early in the off-season. The Astros never had a chance with Yamamoto and even Sonny Gray received 3 years 80 million guaranteed. Aaron Nola also got 7 years 172 million coming off a down year. Did you want to give Eduardo Rodriguez 4 years 80 million? How about Giolito at 2 years 38.5 after an awful season? Are any of those guys even guarantees to be better than Framber or Javier? I don't believe they are. I also have a hard time complaining about not signing Snell or Montgomery when no team has met their asking price yet and the Astros are at a record payroll level. You can't have studs at every position and at this moment the Astros are the favorites to win the AL according to most gambling sites with a couple having the Yankees as favorites but Fangraphs have the Astros projected to be the best team in the AL. We are spoiled.
Pitching is always a risk. Pitchers get hurt. Fact. All a team can do is stock pile talent, implement a system that maximizes that talent while reduces injury/under performance risk, and hope. I am actually more hopeful and optimistic about this pitching staff than I have been in years. 1) Framber reported to camp in better shape after committing to better diet and conditioning. Last year a tweaked ankle in midseason, weight and less than ideal conditioning, and throwing the most innings in the AL in the 2022 regular season and then again in the postseason really effected his 2nd half. 2) JV may be a 140 inning pitcher rather than the 200 inning ace he was 5 years ago, but he works hard, knows his body, and as dependable as they get when he is on the mound. 3) Javier has coasted by on his talent as his innings workload grew and offseasons got shorter 2020-2022. That finally caught up to him as he was out of gas in the 2nd half last year. He had a bit of a longer offseason and committed to diet and working out reporting in great shape. 4) Brown was put in an unfair position last year, to be honest. Pitching in the highest stress level he ever had, he threw 30 more innings than he ever had before in a higher rotation priority spot than he should have been. Because of that (other than McCullers) he is the pitcher I worry about getting hurt more than any other but I'm hopeful he can build on the rookie season and take a step forward. 5) Urquidy was tipping his pitches and injured half the season. These are acknowledged facts. They have also been addressed and are behind him. Because of that I expect 2021-2022 Urquidy, not 2023 Urquidy. 6) McCuller's is a supremely talented pitcher who has performed up to that talent on the mound. He also has an arm of fine China. He injured himself in the 2021 postseason, and should have had surgery. If he had this may be a different conversation. Instead he came back in 2022 without being fully healthy (and contributed to a World Series title) but ended up with setbacks that necessitated that surgery. It's foolish to count on him to stay healthy over a full season, though I am hopeful this was the missing procedure and he is now fixed. However, I absolutely think he can be a good #2-3 starter for half a season and post season. 7) Garcia has been a very solid #4 level starter who is still young, skipped AA and AAA, and likely has not reached his peak. Tommy John Surgery is pretty routine now and it's highly likely that he returns at least as good as he was. Its just not certain that will be in 2024. 8) France was a savior for this team last year. That said, his "stuff" and underlying metrics say he was extremely lucky. He may he slightly better than Bielak but still likely an up and down organizational guy for 5 more years. That is extremely valuable and can absorb innings to getva team through a week or a month if a bad injury happens. 9) Bielak: see France but more experienced with less upside and less time remaining. 10) Arrighetti is the Hunter Brown of 12 months ago. He either starts in AAA or has a very low priority rotation spot with less pressure, or even more likely a combination of those. With the depth the parent club has, there should be much less pressure on him than there was on Hunter last year so hopefully he has a less trying rookie season, whether that is in 2024 or 2025. Blanco and Dubin are also available if a spot start is needed but should never actually be in an MLB rotation.
Its fair... but technically, less questions going into this year vs. going into last year as far as rotation concerns. Verlander is "aging"... but if he's healthy, he's certainly not showing much signs of his stuff being ineffective. Sure, he may not white-wash the league like he did in 2022 coming off TJ surgery... or he's another year beyond that, knows exactly how to optimize his stuff/arm at this age, and will continue to be in the upper echelon of all starting pitchers while the Astros are paying only a fraction of his salary. Framber was the best pitcher in the AL for the first half of last season. Then had the ankle injury and was inconsistent throughout the rest. Did he truly just have a mental breakdown? Or did he finally succumb to some physical ailments that he was able to pitch through (albeit with ups/downs) after he's basically pitched a full season plus playoffs for 3 years straight (showing dominance with the highest of pressure games... not exactly easy for any mentally intact person to get through)? Javier... never projected to be a full season/every 4th day starter... finally has to do that last year due to signing an extension. Unfortunately he doesn't realize the type of shape you need to be in to last an entire year in that role. He also is coming off an extended post-season and off-season throwing. Of course all three could continue to deteriorate and the Astros will be in major trouble next year... or they'll pitch better than the last time we saw them (or close to their career numbers) and the only thing fans need to worry about is health (as is the case with all rotations everywhere).
Now this Best Buy Geek Squad hits a home run. Could have used that against Oklahoma last season, Tucker! :still sharpening dramatic posts for the regular season:
Of pitchers through the order twice, the Astros have 6 starters with an ERA below 3.50 over the last 3 years (min 150 IP, ). LMJ and Garcia are hurt, but France didn't meet the IP qualification. Really interested to see if Espada will manage like most managers today or push his pitchers to pitch one more inning when they've gone through order twice, not giving up many runs, but velo has dropped a lot.
He has a chance to be really good. I could see a Michael Conforto type of player if he hits his ceiling.
