1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

2024 Rockets First Round Pick To OKC (Top 4 Protected)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BallSoHarden, Feb 20, 2024.

  1. Shark44

    Shark44 71er
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 1999
    Messages:
    4,162
    Likes Received:
    7,524
    Finish strong! We have to play/scrap for every win and let the chips fall where they may. If we end up in the lottery, pray for a Top 4 pick and then we have two trade assets to package (w/ Jalen maybe) to find a better player for Ime's vision. While this draft may not have a "generational" talent, there are shooters/rim protectors we could use. If not we have an asset to use in a trade.
     
    kspires999 and AroundTheWorld like this.
  2. kpdark

    kpdark Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2021
    Messages:
    1,788
    Likes Received:
    4,484
    yep, Risacher looks good too, packs a harder punch offensively than those two--whilst they have the defensive upside.

    my guess is the rankings[top 1-5] heavily depends on the teams selecting, fit could be the criteria--not much on the BPA route--having no clear cut stand outs
     
    Corrosion, OremLK and Hemingway like this.
  3. topfive

    topfive CF OG

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2002
    Messages:
    19,041
    Likes Received:
    37,444
    We don't need to try to lose, we're going to do enough of that anyway.

    In all likelihood, we'll finish in the bottom 8-10 and have to hope the ping pong balls get us in the top 4. If not, we've got cap space and a young team on the way up. That might attract FAs this summer.
     
    ArtV likes this.
  4. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    17,497
    Likes Received:
    13,375
    Perhaps it was inevitable that we have a year like this.
    Short of the play-in but no top pick coming either.
    Not the place one wants to stay.

    But of course the plan is to get better, right?

    Well, were going to have to rely on growth for much of it.
    We don't have big FA money and we don't have valuable guys we are willing to trade.
    I mean sure, when that RIGHT GUY becomes available, nearly every player will be available.
    But short of that, I dont see moving Cam and Amen type players for mere role players.
     
  5. BamBam

    BamBam Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2003
    Messages:
    9,607
    Likes Received:
    9,763
    [​IMG]
    Tank Mode???? Didn't Tilly say that we were past phase1???

    Luuucccyyyyy, you have some splaining to do!!


    .......
    .......
    .......
     
    BallSoHarden and Little Bit like this.
  6. darksoul35

    darksoul35 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2012
    Messages:
    949
    Likes Received:
    358
    I’m down for getting better odds. There are some starts in this draft I just think it’s spread out more. No where near as top heavy as last draft but I’m down to try to get Dillingham or Shepherd and a back up big
     
    Corrosion likes this.
  7. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    17,497
    Likes Received:
    13,375
    What is the point of this thread?
    OKC will get our pick, so we have no pick of our own to talk about.

    So what are we talking about?
     
  8. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2008
    Messages:
    18,380
    Likes Received:
    18,402
    It’s really amazing watching this board cry about how long it would take us to reset Silas-installed bad culture and then when Udoka turns it around miraculously have the board discuss whether we should tank again for half a season.

    If we drafted 9 guys and you didn’t like any of them enough what makes you think you’ll like the 10th?

    The picks are not the problem. You are just incapable of detecting a star before they show star production.
     
    #48 Mathloom, Feb 20, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2024
  9. Bearius Jones

    Bearius Jones Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2011
    Messages:
    443
    Likes Received:
    275
    The Rockets keeping both the Nets pick as well as their pick owed to OKC if not top 4 actually increases the chances the Rockets get a top 4 pick.

    The Rockets just need to be worse than the Hawks, which is feasible as the Hawks will likely try to get in the play-in.

    It would be great if the Nets were worse than the Grizzlies and Raptors. I can see the Nets being worse than the Raptors but skeptical they are worse than the Grizzlies without Morant and Bane. Raptors may "tank" since their pick is top 6 protected as they sit with the 6th worst record so if it is 7th or lower then it goes to the Spurs.

    Rockets worse than Hawks
    Nets worse than Grizzlies and Raptors
    Top 1: From 9.00% to 13.50%
    Top 4: From 36.54% to 49.95%
    Better odds than the 4th worst record

    Rockets worse than Hawks
    Nets worse than just Grizzlies/Raptors
    Top 1: From 9.00% to 12.00%
    Top 4: From 36.54% to 45.8%
    Better odds than the 5th worst record
     
    kspires999 and AroundTheWorld like this.
  10. BallSoHarden

    BallSoHarden Member

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2015
    Messages:
    2,448
    Likes Received:
    3,024
    The pick is top 4 protected as the title and OP states, so the discussion is about whether we tank at some point (and if so when) to improve the odds of keeping the pick or just playing through it and let the chips fall where they may.
     
    Y2JT and BamBam like this.
  11. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    17,497
    Likes Received:
    13,375
    This is like the 3rd time I have said this, but we are not getting to the top 4.
    We would have to lose like 80% of our remaining games, and that may not do it depending on what the other teams down there do.

    Its just not a topic, or rather, a realistic one.

    Now, if we are talking about the Brooklyn pick, then the conversation is a bit different.
     
  12. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    7,957
    Likes Received:
    2,528
    This is when I remind everyone that tanking is an organizational level decision, not a thing that players or coaches do. To tank you have to sign a roster of mostly inexperienced players and let them learn on the fly.

    The rockets decided not to tank this year when they signed vets like FVV and Brooks. There's really nothing they can reasonably do now to rack up more losses than they otherwise would have.

    Now, what they could have done in the offseason and previous seasons is use that cap space to trade for bad contracts and get picks in exchange instead of signing vets. But that ship has sailed.
     
  13. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Messages:
    89,829
    Likes Received:
    43,267
    Both the Nets and the OKC pick fall into the Top 4 ........haha Imma kidding.

    Take both Sarr and Cody Williams.
     
    kspires999 likes this.
  14. pr0wler

    pr0wler Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2016
    Messages:
    811
    Likes Received:
    1,618
    Rockets have been unlucky this year, they have a positive point differential. I hope they realize this is actually a decent team and keep trying to win games to keep the momentum going.

    Free agents are less likely to come here as well if they see another lackluster season in HOU.
     
  15. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    72,932
    Likes Received:
    111,122
    reported
     
  16. BallSoHarden

    BallSoHarden Member

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2015
    Messages:
    2,448
    Likes Received:
    3,024
    Not saying tanking is the right choice at this point, but if you want to i think you can just do what the Rockets and Spurs have done to tank, by starting someone at point guard that has no business being point guard. The Spurs are intentionally doing this, the Rockets I assume were doing the same. If you watch Spurs games, you can see that Wemby is very advanced for a Rookie and Vassell is a solid young player and Pop should be able to get more out of them, there is no reason they should have lost THIS many games, there is also no reason they should have their Forward be their PG. You can have a slightly below avg team be horrendous if you don't have a PG be a PG. If they wanted, they could just shut down FVV and say hes injured, he is being paid enough to do what is asked. i don't think we do this, because it also means we would have to have Amen play a different role, and it is too important to develop him the right way. The below feels intentional for a franchise that is supposedly full of very competent people.

    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38935442/jeremy-sochan-point-guard-spurs-making-one

    "Jeremy Sochan, the second-year San Antonio Spurs power forward-turned-point guard, gathers the ball with a 1-point lead and 2:30 left in the second quarter of a Nov. 14 road game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

    As Sochan rushes up the court, he doesn't look over at Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, who is trying to call a specific play. While the Spurs' offense is in action, Popovich implores Sochan to look at him next time.

    The Spurs possession ends in a missed 7-foot jumper by Malaki Branham, and Josh Giddey corrals the rebound and quickly drives down the court, blowing past Sochan for a transition layup to give the Thunder a lead they would never relinquish in what turns into a 123-87 rout."
     
  17. BallSoHarden

    BallSoHarden Member

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2015
    Messages:
    2,448
    Likes Received:
    3,024
    This is not an accurate statement, doesn't matter how many times you say it, it is factually and mathematically incorrect. You have a 3%,3.3%,3.6%, and 4% chance as 10th worst record to get a 1,2,3,4th pick respectively. If you drop to 8th worst, your chances nearly double for each spot for a 26.3% chance at a top 4 pick. There is a 3 game difference between us and the 8th worst record now.

    We are 10th worst now, and only a couple games from being 8th worst. So a few games away from doubling your chances at a top 4 pick. You also have to keep in mind that if you are the 8th worst, there is a 0% chance at 5th, 6th, 7th, pick and it skips to 8th, 9th, 10th, you risk giving OKC a pick that is two spots higher at 8 or 9 vs 10+, but you double your odds of keeping the pick all together and getting a top 4 in this process. it seems like you do not have a grasp of how the draft lotto works.

    The odds are not in our favor, but to act like moving from 10th to 8th worst which we are a few games away from doing is not a discussion that should be had when it doubles your odds of keeping the pick, is just ignorant.

    Those who are afraid to give OKC a better pick, the odds are that if we move to 8th worse they can MAYBE get a pick that is 1-2 spots higher, and if they find a generational player in that 2 spot difference from 8th to 10th you have to just chalk it up to them having a good front office and understand that we didn't really gift them much in a weak draft.
     
    #57 BallSoHarden, Feb 22, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2024
    Y2JT likes this.
  18. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    17,497
    Likes Received:
    13,375
    Yes, I know that. I meant we wouldn't get a bottom 4 record.
     
  19. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    7,957
    Likes Received:
    2,528
    Sure, as I was saying, you can play an inexperienced person in the position and lose more but that would have to be an organizational decision.

    FVV won't shut himself down to lose more games. Udoka won't decide to shut good players down. It will come from higher up in the organization. But, typically those decisions are made early on if you truly want to tank the season.

    If you're just talking about "tanking" from the 10th lottery position to the 8th lottery position sure that can happen from a few guys taking longer to recover from injuries.
     
  20. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2016
    Messages:
    6,122
    Likes Received:
    8,126
    They don’t have to shut down FVV to get more minutes for Amen. He can easily get 30 mins a game playing 1-3. You can do pg like things from any position (see Sengun). FVV should be averaging 30 mins o less the rest of the season. Amen will contribute to winning not tanking.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now