2024 Astros Minor League Thread

I assumed the point was that teams wanted to develop draftees out of high school without having to worry about competive games getting in the way. Draftees would take it as insult to be at the complex developing and not being in games if games are being played.

 

2024 Most Valuable Prospects
I have been doing these prospect lists for what seems like a long time. I had a heart attack and was spending my days doing rehab and sitting for hours on end in front of a computer at my front window. It seemed like a nice way to use up some time. After a couple of years I began to post them on an Astros fan site that I used at the time. There where some great posters there. One name I remember from those days was Snake Diggity. I thought he was one of the smartest posters around then and still do. He did not think much of my list and still disagrees with the premise it was based upon but if I did it the way everyone else does there would not be much point in doing it. The list seemed well received and I got a lot of help from the posters on that site in the form of suggestions to improve it. Over the years I made more adjustments to my methodology but have not felt the need to make additional changes for a few years now. The original premise was to add positional value to the criteria used to make these evaluations. I published my list as The “Most Valuable Prospects” to differentiate it from top prospect lists at the time. It has always been posted in the form of a table but I have not found a way to make that work here. I can’t find a way to post a table on this site and converting it to a jpeg leaves an item too large to be posted. This year in order to post it here I am trying more of a narrative type of format out to see how it works. I am not really very comfortable with it yet. The format makes looking up a specific piece of information difficult and comparisons almost impossible. Additionally my writing skills leave me unhappy with the way the narrative reads. Once again am looking for help to improve it.

Positional Values Scale
I started out with a 1 to 10 scale and eventually settled on a 20-80 scale that is commonly used by most baseball guys. They seem more comfortable with it though it does not really line up with the scouting scale they are used to.

80 Aces (Potential Cy Young pitchers) or Elite Position Players (Potential MVP’s)
75 #1 starters or Plus Plus Position Players (Potential All Stars)
70 #2 starters or catchers
65 #3 starters or short stops & center fielders
60 #4 starters & closers or 3rd basemen & right fielders
55 #5 starters & 8th inning set up men or 2nd basemen & left fielders
50 #6 & tandem starters or 1st basemen
45 7th inning set up men & high leverage situational relievers or DH’s & versatile utility men
40 multi inning middle relievers or bench catchers
35 middle relievers or bench in/out fielders
30 AAA/MLB shuttle pitchers or pinch runners/hitters & 3rd catchers
25 unestablished or injured prospects (short season and injured prospects have unestablished floors till active in full season ball.)
20 organizational pitchers or position players are non prospects
Base +5 plus pitchers or plus position players

After considering each prospect individually I assign a floor and ceiling with it’s associated score to that prospect. By averaging those scores I arrive at an outcome for each prospect and line them up in the order of the outcomes.
It offers a different perspective on prospect ranking and over the years I have found that it is about as accurate, or inaccurate as any other list.

Averaged Floor & Ceiling Values as Letter Grades
One of the most recent changes I made was to add a letter grade to the numeric values for ease of comparison. I do a full update in February and July and a minor update on some players after spring training and the all star break as needed.

A+ 80.0
A 70.0 – 77.5
A- 67.5
B+ 65.0
B 55.0 – 62.5
B- 52.5
C+ 50.0
C 40.0 – 47.5

List is in the following post as together they contained too many characters to post.

 

2024 MVP’s, February Update

1 Zach Dezenzo Likely starting 3rd baseman if Bregman can’t be re signed. 1st baseman if Bregman stays put.
Acquired in Rd 12 ‘22, Level AAA, ETA 24/5, Age 23, Floor +1st baseman 55, Ceiling ++3rd baseman 75, Outcome 65.0 B+

2 Luis Baez Potential replacement for Tucker in right field.
Acquired as an IFA ‘22, Level A+, ETA 26, Age 20, Floor left fielder 55, Ceiling, ++right fielder 75, Outcome 65.0 B+

3 Jake Bloss May be the smartest Astros pitcher since Greinke. Expect him to surprise you.
Acquired in Rd 3 ‘23, Level AA, ETA 26, Age 22, Floor #5 starter 55, Ceiling #2 starter 70 , Outcome 62.5 B

4 Jacob Melton* Plays in the outfield for now but could also make a good 1st baseman replacing Abreu when needed.
Acquired in Rd 2 ‘22, Level AA, ETA 25, Age 23, Floor +1st Baseman 55, Ceiling +center fielder 70, Outcome 62.5 B

5 Brice Matthews Drafted as a short stop but unlikely to stick there. He is still a high value infielder.
Acquired in Rd 1 ‘23, Level A+, ETA 26, Age 21, Floor 3rd baseman 60, Ceiling +2nd base 60, Outcome 60.0 B

6 Colt Gordon* Probably gets a call up at some point this season but may not stick in the rotation till next season.
Acquired in Rd 8 ‘21, Level AAA, ETA 24/5, Age 24, Floor #5 starter 55, Ceiling #3 starter 65, Outcome 60.0 B

7 Kenni Gomez* He will not be in Houston for a few years but should make a big impact when he gets there.
Acquired as an IFA 22, Level A, ETA 27, Age 18, Floor left fielder 55, Ceiling center fielder 65, Outcome 60.0 B

8 Joey Loperfido* I think he could be a bench player out of spring training and see no reason to hold him back.
Acquired in Rd 7 ‘21, Level AAA, ETA 24, Age 24, Floor +versatile utility man 50, Ceiling center fielder 65, Outcome 57.5 B

9 Trey Dombroski* He reminds me a little of Keuchel sort of unnoticed as a minor leaguer with a better than expected outcome.
Acquired in Rd 4 ‘22, Level A+, ETA 25, Age 22, Floor #6 starter 50, Ceiling #3 starter 65, Outcome 57.5 B

10 Kenedy Corona Seems like I have been watching him forever, he has been consistent all along and still only 23 years old.
Acquired in ‘19 trade, Level AAA, ETA 24, Age 23, Floor versatile bench bat 45, Ceiling center fielder 65, Outcome 55.0 B

11 Alonzo Tredwell The highest ceiling pitcher in the system. He needs to establish a floor this season.
Acquired in Rd 2 ‘23, Level A, ETA 26, Age 21, Floor middle reliever 35, Ceiling #1 starter 75, Outcome 55.0 B

12 Cam Fisher Right now he looks like an all bat player I would like to see him prove it at 3rd, then LF, & then 1st base.
Acquired in Rd 4 ‘23, Level A+, ETA 25, Age 22, Floor +designated hitter 50, Ceiling +1st baseman 55, Outcome 52.5 B-

13 Rhett Kouba A likely relief pitcher with one more season to show why he belongs in a rotation.
Acquired in Rd 12 ‘21, Level AAA, ETA 24, Age 24, Floor situational reliever 45, Ceiling #4 starter 60, Outcome 52.5 B-

14 Andrew Taylor I can’t get used to him starting, he has not been bad at it but he still looks like a closer to me.
Acquired in Rd 2c ‘22, Level A+, ETA 25, Age 22, Floor 7th inning set up 45, Ceiling Closer 60, Outcome 52.5 B-

15 Camilo Diaz A high ceiling international prospect that should get to full season ball this year.
Acquired as an IFA ‘23, Level FCL, ETA 28, Age 18, Floor bench infielder 35, Ceiling +short stop 70, Outcome 52.5 B-

16 Spencer Arrighetti I have always seen him as a high leverage reliever that could move to the pen as early as this Spring.
Acquired in Rd 6 ‘21, Level AAA, ETA 24, Age 23, Floor 7th inning set up 45, Ceiling #5 starter 55, Outcome 50.0 C+

17 Colin Barber* Another prospect that has been around for a long time that must show some dominance this spring.
Acquired in Rd 4 ‘19, Level AA, ETA 24, Age 23, Floor +bench outfielder 40, Ceiling +left fielder 60, Outcome 50.0 C+

18 Zach Cole A solid outfielder who bears watching, he could strengthen his position a lot with a good spring.
Acquired in Rd 10 ‘22, Level AA, ETA 26, Age 23, Floor bench outfielder 35, Ceiling center field 65, Outcome 50.0 C+

19 Michael Knorr Could be a classic workhorse of a starter, good K/BB ratio and stuff I would like to see him working on stamina.
Acquired in Rd 3 ‘22, Level A+, ETA 25, Age 23, Floor middle relief 35, Ceiling #3 starter 65, Outcome 50.0 C+

20 Jose Fleury An IFA who has come along well could eventually start but also is a candidate to start this season in the pen.
Acquired as an IFA ‘21, Level A+, ETA 26, Age 21, Floor middle relief 35, Ceiling #3 starter 65, Outcome 50.0 C+

21 Chase Jaworsky* Is a high floor youngster with a very high ceiling and a chance to stick at short stop all the way to MLB.
Acquired in Rd 5 ‘23, Level A, ETA 28, Age 19, Floor bench infielder 35, Ceiling short stop 65, Outcome 50.0 C+

23 G Guillemette Just one of many lower level catchers in the system but I think he has the best chance to separate himself.
Acquired in Rd 15 ‘23, Level A, ETA 25, Age 21, Floor third catcher 30, Ceiling Catcher 70, Outcome 50.0 C+

24 Will Wagner* This feels low for Wagner but I can’t seem to find a fit for him if he does not reach his ceiling.
Acquired in Rd 18, ‘21 Level AA, ETA 25, Age 24, Floor pinch runner/hitter 30, Ceiling +2nd baseman 65, Outcome 47.5 C

25 AJ Blubaugh An unexpectedly fast moving pitching prospect with a chance to get to AAA in his 2nd full season.
Acquired in Rd 7 ‘22, Level AA, ETA 25, Age 23, Floor middle relief 35, Ceiling #4 starter 60, Outcome 47.5 C

26 Anthony Huezo A very young player to be on this list but I think he will prove to be a relatively fast mover and a fine prospect.
Acquired in Rd 12 ‘23, Level FCL, ETA 26, Age 17, Floor Unestablished 25, Ceiling +center field 70, Outcome 47.5 C

27 Cesar Hernandez. Highest value the Astros picked up in this seasons international free agent class.
Acquired as an IFA ‘24, Level FCL, ETA 27, Age 20, Floor Unestablished 25, Ceiling +center field 70, Outcome 47.5 C

28 Nehomar Ochoa The 11th rounder has traditionally been my sleeper pick and Ochoa looks like he will be a good one.
Acquired in Rd 11 ‘23, Level A, ETA 26, Age 17, Floor Unestablished 25, Ceiling +right fielder 65, Outcome 45.0 C

29 Waner Luciano A favorite international free agent of mine with nice tools and plenty of time to establish himself.
Acquired as an IFA ‘22, Level FCL, ETA 26, Age 18, Floor Unestablished 25, Ceiling OF/3rd base 65, Outcome 45.0 C

30 Ethan Pecko I expect Pecko to start this season making up for the time lost in school & setting up for a late season breakout.
Acquired in Rd 6 ‘23, Level A, ETA 26, Age 21, Floor Unestablished 25, Ceiling #4 starter 65, Outcome 45.0 C

Levels are my expected 2024 levels. They may be off depending on how the rosters fill out. This year AAA is full of spring training assignees that may or may not be retained after spring training throwing all the pitchers levels off for a time.

 

Love the list and the fact that you specifically work it from a different prospective. Bravo.

 

I assume that the Astros and Nationals will have daily intra-squad games, after the Complex Leagues are officially done.

BTW there is a almost zero chance that a HS pitcher knows anything about hot to pitch, especially since I suspect that organizations consider HS pitchers as a blank slate.

HS hitters/fielders may be better off.

 

I would be thankful for any criticism you guys can come up with. Either with the format or with the selection and placement of the prospects. As I said I am looking for some help with this.

 

Other than simply having a different opinion than you I don't have much to add.

Example: I think Baez has a DH floor. I have heard he could grow into a below average runner and the glove isn't special even if the arm is.

I like the format and everything is well explained.

Sorry that's not much help.

 

I am always happy to see anyone as interested in Astros prospects as I am and that can help generate conversation, so I’m sorry if I was harsh on you in the past.

My main thought when reading your list is that it is hard to understand your methodology. Awhile back you had Hector Nieves ranked very highly on your list; this wildly bucked consensus so I asked you about it, and your answer was pretty vague. Are you basing your rankings on statistics? Other prospects lists and online chatter? Your own eyes after watching them? Gut feel or something else? Without knowing where you’re coming from in your analysis it’s hard to give credence to your rankings. So my main suggestion would be to give some insight into how you evaluate prospects. You seem way high on Bloss and way low on Arrighetti, Whitley, and Leon so I’d be interested in understanding why.

But really, if you enjoy reading and writing about this stuff then just do it for the love of it and try not to let outside opinions (mine included) take the fun out of it. Go ‘stros!

 

Interesting…

 

Sounds like a total lottery ticket. Inquiring minds wonder why a 20 y/o who put up a 181 wRC+ in the DSL played another season there.

 

https://www.eastvillagetimes.com/padres-sign-mexican-of-oliver-carrillo/

Interesting background. Odd that he never got stateside. Looks limited defensively and has been old for his level. Reminds me of when Luhnow traded for Rainer Rivas. But you never know.

 

Assigned to DSL blue, full to the gills with outfielders. Perhaps some Spring cuts are anticipated there.

 

Maybe he has a visa issue preventing him from playing in the US.

 

A few guys I really like in the format of the original post

Breakout Position Player: Chase Jaworsky. Don't see him on many lists right now but I think he is a top 15 if not top 10 guy by mid season. Good defender at SS, not a lot of power but seems to have a great approach at the plate and an underrated hit tool

Breakout Pitcher: Alonzo Tredwell. If there is an Ace in our system it is likely Tredwell. Another guy without a lot of hype in the Framber/Javier mode, but the stuff is legit. I see his floor as a high leverage pen arm

Make or Break: Has to be Pedro Leon. Yes there are others as there are always a decent sized group of make or break types in any system. But Leon was a highly ranked guy for us who was supposed to already be making an impact at the MLB level, and truthfully hasn't come close. Some guys develop late. It isn't like the physical tools aren't there cause they are. He needs to at the very least make them say "damn, should this guy be on the club" leaving ST

Sleeper Position Player: Nehomar Ochoa. High upside zero floor guy. Huge power to all fields. Very questionable hit tool. Also a good athlete, good runner. Has all the tools, but will he learn to barrel baseballs? I like him as the sleeper even though he is high risk, because outside of Matthews, he likely has the highest upside in the system in my opinion

Sleeper Pitcher: Alimber Santa. Another huge upside low floor type but on the mound. It's all about command, which is something our organization has a history of developing. Santa has the raw stuff to pitch towards the front of a rotation. One of the few guys in our system who has the ability to go from someone rarely even mentioned to a potential top 100 type in a years time. His stuff is that good

On another note, I think our organization is definitely moving towards a model of taking higher upside lower floor types under Dana. Some won't like it but I do for this reason. If you have an organization that produces a good number of league average players, there is definitely value in that. Especially when you are already one of the top teams in baseball. But as time goes on and you lose some of your studs, it's extremely costly to go out and buy frontline starters, dominant closers and all star hitters. If we can just hit on one upside guy every other year, you can afford to go out and get those league average guys to fill in your roster.

I like the direction Dana seems to want to go, this year will be very interesting not just watching these handful of guys I like, but most of his draft class from last year to see if there is one or two guys who separate themselves

 

Great post. I agree that now that it’s established that Crane is willing to stretch and consistently maintain a top 5-7 payroll, it makes more sense to swing for the fences in prospect acquisition and development. It looks like they’ll always be able to find the money to fill in the gaps around the stars; it’s the guys who cost $200M+ to replace that they have to be able to fill from the farm.

Another aspect of the riskier approach is that it’s possible those high ceiling guys have more trade value while in the lower levels, so a contending team can get more out of them that way as well.

 

Prospects I think have legitimate star ceiling (ignoring bust risk):

C: none (although I am interested in seeing what CJ Stubbs and Will Bush do this season)

IF: Dezenzo, Matthews, Luciano, Diaz, Jaworsky

OF: Cabbage, Loperfido, Leon, Melton, Corona, Daniels, Barber, Brewer, Whitaker, Cole, Fisher, Cerny, Baez, Gomez, Hernandez,,Valencia, Huezo, Ochoa, Rives, Perez

P: Whitley, Arrighetti, Solis, Tamarez, Fleury, Taylor, Knorr, DeVos, Dombroski, Ullola, Tredwell, Bloss, Pecko, Guedes, Santa, Mejia, Rodriguez

 

Didn't think about that last part but it is definitely true. Most of the guys who become average mlb players don't have a ton of value while in the lower levels, but the guys with loud tools certainly do.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hows-my-driving/

Interesting retrospective from Eric Longenhagen, the Fangraphs head prospects guy. He looks back at the Fangraphs 2017 top 100 list and goes over his rankings, for better and worse. Why some guys outplayed their ranking (e.g Judge) and why others busted besides injury. Pretty insightful into his prior and current analysis process.

Several Astros related prospects have blurbs: Francis Martes, Teoscar, Derek Fisher, Franklin Perez.

Kyle Tucker interestingly didn't, but what's there to say about a top draft pick/top prospect who goes on to be an all-star.

 

Interesting read, and shows how difficult it is to predict how prospects will pan out, even for people who do it professionally. One takeaway I got from that is that a lot of the players who dramatically exceeded their rating (Chapman, Teoscar, Olson, etc.) had power discounted by strikeout problems. I think that bodes well for Houston’s farm given how many prospects they have that fit that profile.

 

Yea they're definitely going to have to start gambling more on those types. The Luhnow era/type, contact-first guys like Altuve, Bregman, Yuli, Brantley, Yordan and Tucker don't have immediate replacements in the system.

Guys like Teo are imperfect but you get enough high-upside versions of imperfect and maybe you get a few 2020 and 2021 Teo seasons where he hit .289 one year and .296 the next season with ~140 wRC+.