Agree with you on Fisher comparison. People forget Fisher had some nasty tools. I asked about that comparison by the way and the Astros scout said Melton > Fisher. Said that Melton had more power, better arm and “isn’t an idiot”. So IDK. I haven’t seen enough of Melton to have a strong opinion. I will say when I heard the Astros player development staff felt he would steal 80 bases in the big leagues if he walks enough, that got my attention…. Been a long time since the Astros had someone that the organization in good faith could steal 80 bases in the big leagues…
Yeah I think that’s probably the main difference between Fisher and Melton is that Fishers weak arm meant he was best suited for LF and that put a lot of pressure on his bat. Meltons arm means he can play RF if CF is blocked or he doesn’t excel there, so there’s a little less pressure on his bat. Still, it’s extremely hard to be a star level player when you k >30% of the time no matter how fast you are or how much power you bring, and for now that looks like it will be a problem for Melton.
I agree, just like Leon it's going to come down to how much contact he makes. But his K rate in Ashville was 21.1% and even when promoted to Corpus to finish the year it was 28.6% in only 56 PAs, but kept it under 30. If he can play AA this year and keep it under 25% he will skyrocket up prospect lists. I am expecting 25% but hoping it's closer to 23%. As for Leon, since I mentioned him, he took a tiny step forward to 28.4% in his 2nd full year at AAA but his BB rate and overall offense took a hit to do it. This is a make or break year for him. He needs to keep cutting his K rate under 28% but get the crest of his game back or else he's done.
https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/forrest-whitley-excited-by-move-to-bullpen What a boon it would be for Whitley to make good. Talk about found money. But a nasty slider and triple digit heat is a recipe for an elite RP.
If Whitley can get 1-2 years of success from the bullpen, the Astros and Whitey can revisit starting, especially since he may be the bullpen's long reliever. Agreed it is found money, if it works. I'm glad that Whitley embraces the move to the bullpen, since is his only way forward with the Astros.
Never any risk on a minor league deal, but as high octane as his stuff seems to be he hasn't fooled anybody in the minors...not even a little.
The Astros appear to be going all in on reproducing the 2022 bull pen in quality with mostly new arms.
AAA pitching coach has his work cut out for him. Definitely a new initiative by this FO to bring in failed fireballers to see if they can be made to bloom late. I suppose if even one of them turns into an elite RP that is a $50M+ boon.
It fits with Dana Brown's high upside > high floor mentality. Puts a lot of stress on the player development team but may as well gamble on one of the Stros' core strengths.
Luis Rives and Anderson Paula, Houston’s 2nd and 3rd highest reported bonus signees for this period, have not been reported as signed on the MLB transactions page; Cesar Hernandez and most of the other reported signees have had their signings show up on the transactions page. Amauri Ramirez and Samuel Brito also have not shown up. I would be surprised if Amauri Ramirez was committing age fraud because he grew up in the US. That would be a big bummer to lose both Rives and Paula. But it would potentially open the door for Houston to have significant pool allotment remaining to be in the mix for any late bloomers. Rives was already reported as 19 so it would be pretty funny if he was really 25 or something. https://www.milb.com/sugar-land/roster/transactions/houston-astros
We will have to wait to see the details. It’s possible their contracts are voided and they’re allowed to renegotiate new contracts (that would come with much lower bonuses). Or they could be suspended and have to wait a year (or more) to sign. I doubt the Astros actually incur penalties (aside from the “penalty” of having prospects they thought were badass 16 year olds turn out to be nothing special 19 year olds or whatever) and will be allowed to reuse those bonus amounts. But we will just have to wait and see how it shakes out.
