For our purposes with Pressly and Abreu for 7th, 8th and 9th innings and others capable of filling in, Hader is a clear choice for me and gets maximum bang for our buck. Will see how 1b Abreu goes this year, hopefully he is healed and gets er going early and often for 2024. I read Bregman is getting in workouts and o how nice if Bregman has the year atp (at the plate) that I want him to have! Powerful offense can be powerful indeed.
I think the Abreu deal gets a bad wrap because of small sample size while an Astro. Bregman has gone through several stretches almost as bad as Abreu, but everyone gave Bregman rope because we've seen what had done as an Astro, so we knew that he would turn it around eventually. Abreu on the other hand did all his damage as a White Sox, so we saw him struggle and assumed that it was a bad deal. When in reality, he was bad for about half a season while he was confirmed injured, and proved his value towards the end of the season and especially the playoffs. If he just continues what he did during the playoffs without any serious injury, the contract will be a bargain for us overall when all is said and done.
I take Hader over Moore/Stephenson because I have no doubt that with this team being properly managed, it will easily be a playoff team And go into a playoff series with Abreu/Pressly/Hader waiting at the end of games is a weapon unlike many ever seen If we had a legit backup 1B i'd probably rather have Hoskins because he likely has more upside at this point, but seeing that we really don't have a backup plan there I think i'd rather have Abreu who I think can give us a solid, if unspectacular, season next year
I do not think it is clear that Abreu was injured or that his back problem was an accumulation of wear and tear resulting from years of athletic competition and was temporarily covered up by medication. I hope for the best but will not be surprised if we see the same problem occurring and reoccurring this season. At the very least, caution is called for and the back up first baseman is an important part of planning for this season. I would have Alvarez working at 1st base now and in the spring. I would give serious consideration to playing Loperfido as my versatile bench bat with an emphasis on playing first base once or twice a week. Abreu could be an asset or an albatross and prudence requires that being prepared for either evetuality.
Back issues can certainly be chronic - and that is the case whether it is from chronic issues or a single trauma. I haven't read or heard anyone with the Astros claim it is from wear and tear, and it really doesn't matter as there are drawback to both causes of back issues. He tried rest to treat his back and it did not do much, as the pain returned. He foolishly did not try an injection until late in the season. The injection he received can "cure" the pain for some people, it usually takes sets of three injections and they are needed again down the road, as what ever structural issue is present isn't fixed by the injection, just the pain is masked. It is possible that he has a disc bulge or herniation with impingement and that is why the injection helped him. It is less likely, but possible that he has spurring or degeneration in the disc, but usually with degeneration he would have had these problems in the last. Last, it is possible but highly unlikely that he has an annular tear, because if he did, he would have had surgery. My understanding is that the Astros had him rest, and then modified his work out routines to include physical therapy and training to strengthen his core and back. There is a good chance that this will be sufficient. If he does have issues return, they will rest him to get the inflammation go down and then do epidural injections - and a last resort would be a discectomy. There are injury and flexibility concerns because of his back - if he doesn't have full range of motion, he will not drive the ball. Overally he is in his upper 30's - so it isn't a surprise he has some issues - but there is as good a chance as not, that he will be healthy and play 135-140 games. The Astros are smart to plan on resting him from time to time like they have discussed. When healthy and with good timing, he is the biggest power threat on the Astros - we saw it in the playoffs where he finally came through.
I think injury is a plausible explanation for Abreu's struggles last season. From 8-23 (when he returned to the lineup after being off since 8-9) through the end of the post-season Abreu posted a .391 xwOBA across 161 AB. For the portion of the season preceding 8-23, Abreu put up a .296 xwOBA across 414 AB. Hard to believe that variance is driving that differential, although it's certainly possible whatever injury relief Abreu received from 8-23 onwards will be temporary.
As I said, prudence requires being prepared for either eventuality. Planning for the season has to include finding the best option to spell or even to replace Abreu for some period of time. Dubon, Kessinger, or Julks are not the best options for these potential scenarios.
......... Jose Abreu brought a sub-650 OPS into September..... when has Alex Bregman ever had a five-month stretch *that* bad? For me (and may more), the issue was the third year. He's going to be 38 next April. It's unwise to pay a 38-year old $20 MM.
Abreu also isn't the type of guy that is going to feel satisfied with mediocrity. He has and will want to work at performance to give his best effort. The end of last season is a prime example . . . . Figuring this stuff out on the road, at home, playing games every other day with out a real backup wasn't super easy - nor was it successful. I think this year, with a newly focused staff, a player that knows a little more about his body, and hopefully some better back up options (still TBD in my understanding) will prove to be a much more successful year at 1st base. Am I excited about the interior defense on the right side? No. But I think the hitting will be better this year.
I was responding to why his deal gets a bad rap - it was stapling that third year onto the deal that made it troublesome. Everything else was wholly justifiable.
There is 0 chance Alvarez starts working at 1B. They have mentioned in the past that they do not feel it would be good for his knees. Knee injuries rarely occur with normal running like you would do going after a fly ball, its the herky jerky movements which you have much more of at 1B. And the stretching for a throw and quick movements on a bad throw and so forth. It's simply not going to happen
This… The type of surgery he had on both of his knees are genetic in nature. He needs to only be a DH.
Teams identify the players they feel are the best fit then find out how to get them. I'm sure the 3rd year was needed to keep him from signing somewhere else, and I think its likely they expected him to "earn" $22M in 2023, $20M in 2024, and $16.5M in 2025. That projection got behind the 8 ball due to injury and how it was handled, but I think if he has 2 more post seasons like 2023 he can be mediocre the next 2 seasons and I'll still be happy.
As far as I'm concerned the Astros won the division and Abreu hit really well in the playoffs and would have been a big reason we won another world series if Tucker and a couple others would have shown up, and/or if Dusty wasn't suffering from early onset alsheimers, or if Framber and JV would have done their freaking jobs and we didn't go 1-3 in games they started against basically spares. I bet he's good the next two years if he doesn't get hurt and we look back more or less fondly on Abreu being an Astro.
What irritated me the most was that Baker insisting he will play himself out of the slump and get rhythm while in reality the opposite was true... meanwhile, Yainer and Chas got excessive rest days to keep them "fresh."
Dana Brown has shown the propensity to lobby for guys to be brought up as soon as he thinks they can play. I will be extremely surprised if Melton is able to be viable in the majors this year, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented. Here’s hoping. My money is still on Whitley and Loperfido being Houston’s 2 significant rookie contributors. Off the cuff estimated % chance of posting >1 fwar in mlb in 2024: Loperfido 25% Wagner 15% Melton 15% Leon 10% Dezenzo 10% Corona 10% Whitcomb 5% Berryhill 5% Stubbs 5% Hamilton 5% Barber 5% Gittens 5% Daniels 1% Dirden 1% Brewer 1% Stevens 1% Palma 1%
If Meyer’s got hurt and Leon was playing full time I suspect he’d have a decent chance at 1 War based upon defense if they played him every day, but I also suspect they’d just move Chas back to CF and make a deal for another LF.
