Rockets Preview of this Season...

I apologize if this has been posted already. I thought it was a pretty good summary of last year, this offseason and the upcoming season.

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http://www.fanball.com/ph/article.cfm/ID.2778

Training Camp Preview: Houston Rockets

By Rick Kamla, Senior Editor
September 1, 2004 4:00 PM ET

2003-04 Recap: Year one of the post-Rudy Tomjanovich era (as coach) was a rousing success, as former-Knicks coach Jeff Van Gundy got the Rockets back to the playoffs. After finishing seventh in the West with a 45-37 record, the Rockets lost to the Lakers in five games, but gained valuable playoff experience for Yao Ming. In his second season, Ming blossomed into a legitimate All-Star, averaging 17.5 points, nine rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 82 games. But while Van Gundy's dump-it-down philosophy was great for Yao, it caused the worst shooting season of Steve Francis' career. In averaging a career-low 16.6 points, he shot just 40.3 percent from the field. Francis is a scoring point who likes to have the ball in his hand, so constantly dumping it down to Yao drove him nuts and drove down his shooting stats. Ironically, Francis made his first trip to the playoffs in his worst year as a pro. Speaking of pros, the Rockets signed small forward Jim Jackson shortly before the season and he ranked seventh in three-pointers made (162) and 12th in minutes (39.0). The team also received a nice boost from Maurice Taylor, who was a sixth man contender with 11.5 points and 5.1 rebounds in 27.7 minutes off the bench.

Offseason Overview: If the Heat's trade for Shaquille O'Neal was the biggest move of the summer, then the Rockets trade for Tracy McGrady ranks a very close second. When Tracy said he wanted out of Orlando and that Houston was his chosen destination, the Rockets wasted little time in offering the Magic Francis, Cuttino Mobley, and Kelvin Cato for McGrady, Juwan Howard, Tyronn Lue, and Reece Gaines. The Magic took its sweet time in getting back to the Rockets, but the deal eventually went through and now the league is staring at Yao and Tracy on the same team. Scary. Feeling they needed more ammunition at the point, the Rockets also signed ex-Hawk Bob Sura and ex-Spur Charlie Ward.

2004-05 Outlook: Now that Shaq and Kobe are no longer together, you gotta believe the best one-two punch in the league resides in Houston. T-Mac didn't move to Houston because of the weather or the nightlife. He moved to Houston to play with Yao, which means he'll be cool with passing the ball to the 7-6 miracle. Tracy is going to get his, but he understands that it all starts in the paint. Francis never bought into that philosophy, which is why he's in Orlando. I'd like to see the Rockets trade for a backup center, such as Dikembe Mutombo, and settle on a point guard. Regardless, this team finishes second in the Southwest and earns the fourth seed in the Western Conference playoffs. (By the way, moving to a playoff team brings T-Mac back into the MVP race.)

Rotation Analysis: The weirdness at the one will force T-Mac to play right around 40 minutes a night, so let's hope that back holds up. Yao saw his minutes increase from 29.0 as a rookie to 32.8 a year ago, and he'll probably nudge closer to 35 this year. The steady Jackson will average close to his 39 minutes from a year ago, leaving little time for Bostjan Nachbar. It gets dicey at the point, where three of four players could conceivably start, and at power forward, where Howard's burn could get curbed by Taylor. Juwan will average right around 30 minutes, and Taylor figures to split roughly 25 minutes between the four and five.

Player(s) to watch: Get ready for a 20-10-2 season from Yao, who will be the starting center for your Western Conference All-Stars for a third straight year. Last season he improved in every key stat, going from 13.5 to 17.5 in points, 8.2 to 9.0 in rebounds, and 1.8 to 1.9 in blocks. With the slight increase in playing time and the additional confidence gained from dominating the Olympics, China's greatest export makes the leap from All-Star to superstar.

Player(s) to fear: I fear the point guards because all four may end up losing the numbers game. I could see Sura starting and playing 25 minutes a night, but you know Van Gundy is going to play Ward after spending seven seasons with him in New York. Some say Ward has the inside track on the starting job, but they didn't see Sura tear it up late last year. Then you have Lue, who has averaged 23.2 minutes over his six-year career. In case you're wondering, the answer is no, Gaines won't see the court after warm-ups. What you also won't see is a Rocket point guard tearing it up in fantasy leagues—that is, unless Van Gundy makes a commitment to Sura, who has by far the most upside.

The Stat: Francis and Mobley each averaged exactly 40.4 minutes a year ago.

Bold Prediction: Yao passes Shaq as fantasy basketball's top center.

 

I thought his prediction of where the Rox will fall in the standings was pretty good. 2nd in the division and 4th in the conference is VERY doable for this team yet not overly expectatious (is that a word?).