His star was during the covid season with no fans. The second he had to pitch in front of fans, against actual MLB competition, he was awful. He's still young enough to latch on somewhere. Hell, Mark Appel eventually made it to the big leagues as a reliever.
Yes I agree, awful is very accurate. He has gradually gotten worse and worse the further his MLB success gets behind him. I'm sure a change if scenery would not hurt him.
If Bregman has a good year and hits free agency he could get a 10 year deal because teams go longer to lower the AAV. We saw that last year with Bogaerts, Turner, and maybe Nimmo. Not sure I expected Nimmo to get an 8 year deal but an AAV of 20 million made it more tolerable for the Mets. I think your 230 million might be in the ballpark but a team might spread it out more. 10 years 250 million would not shock me for Bregman after what we saw last offseason.
I have said for over a year that Kris Bryant's contract of 7yr/ $182 at age 30 was a good comp. Most people here have argued that it was too rich, I think it's floor. I think Bregman wants to stay, and REALLY wants to win, which limits his possible choices. I expect he will take a small ( not big) discount to stay but that contract represents that discount. Free agent all star position players want $8-10M per expected WAR and a contract that goes past the mid-30s ( 7 YRS - age 37 season) He averaged 4.9 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR at ages 28 and 29 the past 2 seasons. Let's say over a 7 year extension, he is expected to average 3 WAR per year (4.5, 4.0, 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.5) that 21.0 WAR $8M, $9M and $10M per WAR is $168M, $189M, and $210M.
Mlbtraderumors is reporting this puts him in line to he a minor league free agent. I don't see him staying in the Astros system. I wish him well.
Hader received a qualifying offer. I never thought it was likely the Astros would go after him but to me that makes it even less likely. I don't see the Astros giving Hader 100 million and giving up a 2nd round pick. With Pierce Johnson and Joe Jimenez signing new deals with the Braves and Chad Greene having his option picked up the reliever market is getting thinner for replacing Neris. Even Blake Treinen had his option picked up after missing all of 2023. The good relievers left are: Josh Hader Jordan Hicks Craig Kimbrell Reynaldo Lopez Hector Neris Adam Ottavino (declined his player option) Robert Stephenson David Robertson Matt Moore
My number for Bregman would be 200M tops- I don't care if you do that over 7 years, 8 years, 10 years whatever. If you gave that to him this year and he didn't have to play another year before he gets it that would be something like a 13% discount between what you are saying market is and what I would pay him this year in a contract extension. That's a completely reasonable discount for bird in hand instead of a year from now and him liking it here and valuing it here. Get er done Crane. 8/200. Retire an astro. Hell- even give him the last 3 voidable in case he's still going really good and wants another bite at it.
Ok so this is funny. Preparing for my POD today and as promised we said we were going to dork out on the math and try to calculate how many wins Dusty cost us last year. I did an hour and a half of spreadsheets and baseball reference and a bunch of other stuff and my number came out to 3.2 Games. I think it's probably higher than that b/c I made no attempt to play guys in more advantageous situations (like Meyers only against LHP, or Diaz never DH'ing), so I'd say the number was probably 4 games he cost us through lineup decisions. Then, to check myself I just played Diaz at catcher 125 games and maldy at Catcher like 40, while also giving Chas back an extra 15 or 20 games Dusty took from him and benching Abreu so Diaz could get 20 games at 1b. Just those 2 simple decisions, pro rated out, added up to 3.1. Then I looked at our Pythag vs our actual record and it was 93 wins v the 90 we actually had. So, with even luck and optimal playing time the answer is 97 wins. This last years astros team, with the players available to it, and average luck should have probably won 97 games. Will be interested in seeing Andrew's math on this. We will be doing a weekly throughout the offseason. 1st offseason one is look back at manager look ahead at managers we like or are looking at. #2 will be highs and lows and favorite parts of the year. After that it will just be whatever makes sense in light of events going on in the offseason- projecting out 2024 and then some talk about baseball movies. I love baseball movies.
I hate that Dusty did this. That said, the team won the division and got the 1st rd bye. Now, considering part of Dusty's job is to give the bench players playing time so they stay sharp in case of being needed, I think none of that mattered. Now I think Dusty was crazy lucky that it didn't matter but, still. . . The regular season results were as good as they needed to be. Speaking of keeping players fresh- where Dusty failed ( within what I pointed out) was not playing Diaz regularly throughout September so that he would be viable in the playoffs. To a lesser extent this could be said about Meyers as well. If he was not iced throughout September (probably) causing his huge slump, he could have helped in the postseason. The Rangers had 5 lefties in the bullpen and 1 lefthanded starter. He should have been a better pinchhitting or pinch running option than Kessinger, allowed Dubon to backup SS, and been the best PH option vs LHP if Chas was starting. Then, of course his post season decisions of letting Maldy start a billion games in a row, and hit for himself in run scoring opportunities when desperately needed screwed the team. That's not even discussing pitching decisions like pulling Brown in game 7 when he was pitching well, and bringing in France to complete the massacre. Anyway. I can't wait for the podcast and let me know if you need ideas or opinions (I have opinions) like you did over all star break.
Some are over-reacting to the CBT. The Astros can go over it by a decent amount and pay a small tax amount, and get back under it next season if need be.
Next year is going to be a big year in charting the future of the franchise. If we win a WS or are not slowing down then it will be a lot easier ask to resign Bregman. As it is - all I have heard is resigning Altuve and then looking at their options at 3rd base. I think they want Bregman back but they will not overpay. Still, 2024 is the last real guaranteed year of high-level competing. So I expect the prospect of the pick they could get for Bregman falling from a #2 to a #4 will not be a major consideration. All I have heard from within the Astros is that the money can be pulled together if it is for the right player.
What a waste of an arm. I am sure he gives it his all, but when he finds the strike zone he is a high leverage reliever of high quality.
No way Bregman gets 10 years. He could hit 50 HRs next and still not get that. He's a 6 year guy (7 max)
I don't think the QO to Hader negatively impacts the Astros at all. This was always going to be about money, and how much Hader could get on the open market. The QO may scare away someone that otherwise would throw a large contract his way. With all of this on Hader - it will come down to how rich the Astros are willing to go. The Astros are considering turning some internal candidates for the rotation into relievers as well. Hicks, Lopez and Stephenson all have the type of stuff that the Astros like in the post season. If I had to guess, the Astros target Lopez and Moore if they decide to abandon their fascination with Hader. There is always the trade market at as well, and some starters that may be on the market that can reemerge as relievers. I am more concerned with the Astros getting one quality arm over depth - because I think we can develop or trade for depth at the deadline - the key is getting a 7-8th inning type guy.
Bad fielder - a lot of swing and miss in his game - doesn't get on base much. I could see someone taking a one-year flier on him at a lot of money.
