The main reason the Padres should have to include more is Soto’s salary. He will make >$30M in that last arb year, whereas Tucker will make ~$12M in 2024 and assuming he has another good year will make ~$20M in 2025. So Soto projects for $30M/6war, Tucker for $32M/9war. Thats a big difference in value. If the padres wanted to eat a bunch of Soto’s salary then maybe a straight up swap makes sense, but that defeats the purpose for them because the only reason they might make him available is to shed payroll.
Pena had such a WEIRD year. For half of it, he didn't really regress at all - he was the same player he was in '22 - he just wasn't anywhere close to the player he was in the postseason. Then, around July, his plate disciplined finally improved - he got on base *a lot* more - but his power just evaporated, which makes no sense. If Pena can maintain better plate discipline (his OB% was .348 after July, and we would take that all day, every day) and regain a bit of his pop.... He'd be a terrific SS with that glove.
All we had to do is win one home game in the ALCS to repeat. Talk about disappointing. You’ll can just ignore it. It’s everywhere living up here! Wrong thread on top of that! Bloody hell!
It was the power depletion that was the major difference and major regression. He was anemic against fastballs this year... while he was punishing fastballs last year. Again, some point to him adjusting his technique to be more selective against sliders... which slows his swing... and thus he's not doing as much damage on balls in the zone. OBP goes up... SLG goes down... seems like the same player based on OPS... but that's where the advanced metrics truly do paint the picture of how impactful he was at the plate.
Astros currently have 43 players on 40 man roster, including those on 60 day IL who will need to added in today. FA: Maldy, Brantley, Maton, and Stanek will be removed today as well- leaving 39. Neris is 100% going to decline his option and become a free agent, but has until November 6th to make it official - leaving 38. November 14th is date that teams must add any players they want to protect from the rule 5 draft. The Astros have several players that would be at risk if left unprotected including the following players currently on top prospect lists: Mlb pipeline: Barber 8, Corona 11, Dirden 14, Daniels 19, Whitcomb 25, Melendez 27, and Tamarez 30 Fangraphs: Corona 6, Barber 14, Robaina 21, Palma 24 Dirden 26, Daniels 29, Tamarez 33 Baseball America (last list I saw was July so the ranks are off but these are players listed then): Corona, Barber, Dirden, Whitcomb, Apollo: Corona 13, Barber 14, Whitcomb 21, Record 28. Dirden 32 Other guys who have been on 1 or more lists previously: Jayden Murray, Austin Hansen, Jimmy Endersby, Tyler Brown, J.C. Correa, Cristian Gonzalez, Ross Adolph. Maybe more. The Astros have protected pitchers who have not been on rankings lists the last few years. Someone like Ryan Gusto looks to me like maybe a candidate for that. Also: Enoli Paredes, and Maybe Jon Singleton and Forest Whitley who must make 26 man roster or be DFA'd (unless MLB gives the Astros an option year back - they applied but I have not heard the answer) are candidates to he non-tendered in order to make room for more and for FA signings. Will be an eventful 2 weeks.
My guess is Barber, Corona, Whitcomb, and Tamarez added, Kuhnel and Ortega DFA. It would not shock me if Joe Record was added, taking Paredes’ spot. Other DFA candidates: Hensley, Singleton, Sousa, and Gage. Melendez, Gusto, Robaina, Henley, Taveras. Bellozo, Macuare, and De Paula are moderate Rule 5 risks and I’d set the o/u on the number who will be taken at 1.5.
Robaina has to 100% be protected. He figured something out down the stretch and was the most productive pitcher in the organization the last 45 games or do.
I think he is very likely to get picked if not protected. High upside pitchers are the most likely to get picked because it's easy to stash them at the end of the bullpen. I don't know if either would get picked but I think Barber must be a priority over Corona (but both will likely be protected IMO). I actually think if they don't bring in a LH bat (or bat effective vs RHP) then Barber could make this team and platoon w/Meyers, though he may be more suited for LF w/ Chas in CF. Loperfido could be a wildcard, but unlike in the past, I think a RH OF bat like Julks or Leon are very unlikely to make the team out of ST.
Fangraphs updated their depth chart projections to remove free agents. Astros have the 2nd best projection of 50.6 fwar behind the Braves who have 54.3. Positional ranks: C 12th 1B 15th 2B 1st SS 13th 3B 2nd LF 5th CF 5th RF 3rd DH 1st SP 5th (no innings expected from Garcia or McCullers) RP 9th (includes Neris) Based on that, the sole offseason task seems to be finding an excellent hitting backup catcher who can also maybe play 1B and an excellent RP to replace Neris. An offseason haul of Mitch Garver and Josh Hader would probably ensure the Astros enter opening day as one of the top 3 teams in the league in terms of win projections. That also aligns with Dana Brown’s recent comments about their offseason plans. Yasmani Grandal and Salvador Perez seem to be other potential backup C solutions. Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, Hunter Harvey, Scott Barlow, Aaron Bummer, and Matt Moore all seem like good RP options.
Clearly they know more about this stuff than me, but How can they expect the CURRENT Astros to be top 5 in all 3 OF spots and DH? I get Chas, Yordan, and Tucker each making one of those spots top 5. But how can they expect some combination of Meyers, Dubon, Julks, or prospects make the 4th spot top 5? Are they putting Yordan at both LF and DH?
Clearly they know more about this stuff than ke, but How can they expect the CURRENT Astros to be top 5 in all 3 OF spots and DH? I get Chas, Yordan, and Tucker each making one of those spots top 5. But how can they expect some combination of Meyers, Dubon, Julks, or prospects make the 4th spot top 5? Are they putting Yordan at both LF and DH?
Essentially yes, Yordan is valuable enough to push the Astros’ ranking into the top 5 at both LF and DH, giving him 230 pa in LF and 430 in DH. Chas also helps a bit by being split between CF and LF.
