Abreu's expected numbers mostly tell the same story. He was abysmal the first 2 months, then he started producing well, had a nasty slump right before he went on the DL with the bad back, and started producing well one he came back from the DL. Spoiler Of course no fans want to hear that given they've seen a 20 million dollar player with offensive numbers in Martin Maldonado territory for most of the season. However he has been a productive bat for most of the last 4 months save for the likely outlier slump that was probably related to his back issues.
If Abreu had played with us his whole career, we would cut him a lot more slack like we do Bregman when he has worthless slumps. MVP hitters just don't forget how to hit.
I told y’all in Boston after the injections he was going to be fine. Saw the fast bat turning on the ball and hitting lasers and said that was a different cat than we’d seen all year. It was pretty clear then that he’d been playing with injury most of the year and he should be viewed as an above average hitter heading into the playoffs and not his pretty dreadful stat line for the season. He’s old. Backs are finicky so he might get hurt. But if he stays relatively healthy the next two years we are going to be just fine with having him on the team. He’s like our 6th or 7th best hitter if we are optimizing the lineup. If he’s a 120 OPS+ guy going forward that’s great. He needs to play in 135 games next year and be honest with the training staff if he’s dinged.
The only legit reason for his suckage was injury. Players with a decade of proven track record don't drop 300 points in OPS over the winter without blatant reason.
If Jose continues to be a threat with Alvarez going Babe Ruth at the plate everyone is gonna hate the Astros another full year.
You were adamant about his turnaround on the podcast, starting almost immediately after he got back. Kudos. Let’s hope the 120 is right. If we get that Abreau, no Maldy (even if Dusty is back, Maldy won’t be), and mostly Chas in CF, then next year is historic … esp if they can get one more 110 OPS+ LF/DH type, which is not a big ask.
I'm fine with him as he's already under contract and it would take another contract the size of his to get someone only marginally better. I know this is against everything Dusty stands for, but I would rest him more next season despite Abreu not being in Dusty's doghouse. He's getting older so I don't think health is a good assumption, and I worry Dusty is going to run him into the ground as he isn't going to get the Chas treatment of 11 straight games and then sitting.
Final results: 1st half Abreu: 22 xbh, 45 rbi, .630 ops Yuli: 16 xbh, 18 rbi, .729 ops Bell: 26 xbh, 42 rbi, .701 ops Mancini: 14 xbh, 26 rbi, .652 ops Rizzo: 24 xbh, 39 rbi, .753 ops 2nd half Abreu: 20 xbh, 45 rbi, .760 ops Yuli: 7 xbh, 10 rbi, .552 ops Bell: 24 xbh, 32 rbi, .793 ops Mancini: 2 xbh, 2 rbi, .517 ops Rizzo: 2 xbh, 2 rbi, .457 ops Total Abreu: 42 xbh, 90 rbi, .680 ops Yuli: 23 xbh, 27 rbi, .663 ops Bell: 50 xbh, 74 rbi, .744 ops Mancini: 16 xbh, 28 rbi, .635 ops Rizzo: 26 xbh, 41 rbi, .706 ops Bell had a huge finish to the season after the trade to Miami, but overall very underwhelming 1B FA class.
Abreu had back issues since the end of Spring Training, but they would wax and wain. The power is obviously back - has 20 homers in his last 325 at bats. Still, he needs to get his average and walks up some. Main difference between this season and his best seasons is that he hasn’t gone nuclear for a couple months in the season… in Chicago he would have a couple months of 1.000 OPS sandwiched around a 750 OPS type month.
I don’t know if he can do that man. We shall see and I’m open to the idea but he’s 36. I think it’s likely sort of an either or. He’s got to cheat. He has trouble with a good fast ball. He can’t wait as long and let the ball get as deep and has to be keyed up to swing. He’s old and getting older. It is what it is. I would love to be wrong and hope he has a couple more nuclear months in him but I think it’s a push pull and he’s going to have to cheat to hit with power. That doesn’t mean he can’t still hit 20 or 25 HR with an ops between 750-800.
