The Rockets will have a top 10 defense this season

Not with Sengun at center and Jalen at SG. They're both sieves.

 

The Pelicans went from 20th to 6th in defensive efficiency. If the Rockets improve 14 spots they'd still be 15th.

Also the Pelicans have at least 2 defensive speicalists in Jones and Alvarado and they basically substracted Zion who was a minus defender from their lineup last year.

 

Cavs went from 26th to 14th to 5th from 20-21 thru last year. Sacramento went from 24th to 7th in one year. So there is precedent.

 

Neither of those types of improvements would put the Rockets in the top 10.

 

Presti used to talk about needing 2 years for a 12+ More Wins if you are a Sub 30 Win team before.

It is doable but it takes time, and a lot has to happen before you could make an outlandish improvement.

 

Out of the gate, no way.
These things take time, especially when your trying to change everything (literally) at once.

Perhaps by the time the All-Star break occurs these guys might be playing solid defense.
Even then, the top 10 isnt that easy to crack, especially expecting it from a team that was bottom 5 in almost every category last year.

But even early on, there will be times when we are surprised. Times when we surprise other teams.
Times when everybody seems to get it.
Consistency is what will take time.

 

What will you do when it is the 11th Best or 12th Best....which is probably the same to me. Just not in name.

You need a Top 5-8 ish Defense to win championships.

If you have an elite D and still do not come close to contention, I mean that is literally a waste.

 

Doubt we are in the top 10 in the first half of the season. Will take time to learn the system and more time to gell. Second half should be much better. Probably end up 12-15 overall. Next year, easily top 10.

 

It could happen .... and being in the top 10 really isn't saying much - There's a bigger gap between #1 and #10 than there is in #10 and #20 in defensive rating.

The average defensive rating in the league is ~114 with #10 last season being 113.1. or just 0.9 ppg better than league average and the 20th team was 114.7 or just 0.7 ppg worse than the average.



Being top 10 in a league of 30 doesn't mean a whole lot. The break point is ~top 4-5 where those teams are 4+ points a game better than the average and ~10 points better than the worst teams.

Being 10th doesn't necessarily mean you are good, just means you aren't terrible.

 

agreed. and it's just the start... or we could say -the jump off point

 

"If any team... " is the problem. I don't know of any team that improved as rapidly as would be required to reach top 10 overall.

But since we're just pretending If any team is primed to make a massive leap - look at the 30th best team from last year and then look at who their primary addition is.

 

Actually we're likely to have a pretty damn good offense, running it through Sengun, as well as FVV, and Jalen...and, Amen eventually. I know Ime's a defensive minded coach, but iniitally we're going to give up some points. Big totals for our games. As the season moves on, it will get better, as guys progress...and, mature physcally/mentally. Take Jabari for example...Kid's gonna be the leader on that side. He'll be able to finsh off a lot of those plays that he's been tryng to make. More importantly, the team defense will continue to improve. If we're going to be serious about playing big time D, eventually there has to be a shotblocker/rebounder added to the mix. Sengun will be a good position defender, but we need the fly swatter too.

 

We should make a big leap on defense compared to last year but top 10 seems pretty optimistic. I’d be pretty happy moving out of the bottom 1/3 of the league.

 

Yeah, I too think a jump like that will take a couple of years under the best circumstances. I'll be more than happy if we're in the 15-18 range.

 

The doubters are drastically underrating 3 things:

1) Udoka: he will not allow us to not be a great defensive team. If Sengun or Green are not giving maximum effort, he will bench them. I have absolutely no doubt about that. The difference between 2 idiots giving 100% on defense vs 2 idiots giving 50% on defense is massive. He knows our only path to the playoffs is through top 10 defense because the offense will take time. Look at the players he decided to sign, all of them good defenders. His plan is very clear to me.

2) The difference between a team where the coach is holding people accountable for defense and one that is not. If you take the EXACT same roster as last season, make Stone hold Udoka accountable for wins, and make Udoka hold the players accountable for execution, we would be a far better defensive team than last season even without a single new addition. Hell, even if you kept Silas but the organization started demanding wins and signed cheap FA's accordingly, the defense would improve.

3) Jabari: He's very obviously going to be a beast defensively and the hardest matchup on the wing will be Brooks' responsibility now. He had no chance at looking excellent defensively last season because no wing defender could have done that last season.

Two more examples people are ignoring:

- Thunder were 12th defensively and they didn't have a better defender at C than Sengun. They did have bad defenders starting.
- Chicago were 5th in the league and they started Vucevic, Derozan and Lavine. Vucevic has been one of the worst starting defenders at C in the NBA for 10+ years now. Derozan and Lavine suck too. It's the coach that made that inspired that defensive record.

Not a single player on the roster improved defensively last season and many regressed. That's not a talent issue, it's clearly systemic (and the system is gone). You definitely can have 1-2 bad defenders in a starting lineup and finish top 10. We won't be a top 10 defense to start the season, but we'll finish in the top 10.

 

My concern in being a great defensive team starts at the 5.
Not so much Sengun, we know what we got there.
But when Sengun is resting, who anchors the middle?
Jock? Boban? IDK, but my confidense isnt there for either.
Sure, Bari my play some 5, but he cant be the first and/or only option.
Maybe we play a lot of small ball?

Anyone else have these concerns? Do we need another big?

 

It's just not true anymore that great defensive team starts at the 5. Chicago finished 5th with a horrible defender at C. Most great defensive teams have a great rim protector, but it's not the only way - especially if you can have 4 other athletic hardworking defenders on the floor.

More action is taking place on the perimeter than ever before, so while rim protection is extremely important, preventing the need for rim protection has also become important. More importantly, at any position, you can offset defense with scoring. Think of the opponent's game plan: there are hardly any teams with a C who can punish you with points in the post, excellent playmaking, generating free throws, PnR and probably the ability to make wide open 3's. The opponent may benefit from our diminished rim protection, but it's not a vacuum, they are losing something in order to gain that. We just have to make the mismatch tilt in our favor as MDA used to say.

It would be nice to get a 3rd string C who can protect the rim, but Sengun and Jock will play most of the minutes at C. Jock has an $8m contract, there is no chance we signed him to that to be 3rd string.

 

Yeah, I think this is why the Rockets were looking to bring in Lopez during the offseason.
As it stands, this team has a platoon of good-to-great perimeter defenders, but it doesn't really have the players for consistent interior defense and rim protection.

But as long as the interior D can perform at an average level, I think the Rockets should be competitive defensively in most games.