I have been talking Abreu up around here and on my last pod to a lot of doubting people. I get it. He was so bad that it’s hard to get that out of your mind. the guy I’ve seen after coming off the IL is a different dude. His bat speed is back. He’s going to be a 120 or 130 type guy from coming off the IL to the end of the season.
If you were a starting pitcher, how happy would you be if he were catching you? The Cardinals starters had a mutiny until management made Contreras put in the effort - and even after that it didn’t go well. Could it work for 40 starts a year? It’s possible, the Cubs trotted him out there and the Cardinals did too in the second half. I just don’t think it is likely with Diaz catching. They are far more likely to add a veteran glove/game caller to start 40-60 times a year for 3-5 million a year.
Having 8 or 10 War in your catching spot would be a cheat code man. If you gave him one guy to run through so he had it all down maybe it seems workable? 40 games isn’t a lot. It’s basically one pitcher and a couple day games after night games.
That he’s worth about 3 WAR (BR) has a ring as a catcher and that the cards organization is dysfunctional and it’s probably not his fault- their pitchers have more or less sucked equally throwing to 3 different catchers this year.
When I don’t know things definitively I say as much. I save certainty for when I know things are empirically true.
Had to do a super positive, happy and celebratory recap of the most amazing regular season series I can ever remember in such a situation. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4kI7sG1tcapSwq8tCArlSc?si=I4jWmUejTpOuoHCfC7-kQw Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/8...arlington?ref=dm_sh_q0HjFwj0Seizm9m1jpYyimhNu apple- will be up later if that’s your thing.
My favorite thing about the Astros post ASB: Jeremy's strikeouts are down this year on the same amount of at bats. Walks are up. And maybe this man doesn't suck offensively albeit league average on the year. You have to assume the power will come in the next few years. He was a big time part of our future coming in to the year. Lets keep seeing the improvement.
Andrew did a deep dive on that on our Monday pod. The other thing that was different is his launch angle is lower across the board (his bad speed is steady and maintained) meaning maybe he flattened his swing plane a little for more contact? Maybe something else was going on? I don’t know, but him hitting the ball in the air again is a good sign. If that starts happening more regularly then maybe Peña can be considered to have leveled up. Which, I’m in right about Abreu’s being back to more or less his old self means the Astros can play 9 above average bats at their natural defensive positions at the same time. I don’t know if any team ever constructed can say that. It would be incredible.
Why can’t the Astros win at home? Minute Maid Park’s batter’s eye one possibility … The Astros will begin their six-game homestand on Friday night with a 35-34 record at Minute Maid Park. Twelve regular-season games remain there. Even if the Astros win all of them, their .580 winning percentage would be their lowest at Minute Maid Park since 2018. After trouncing the Texas Rangers in a three-game sweep this week at Globe Life Field, Houston is 45-27 on the road. Only the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles have more road wins. “There shouldn’t be any excuse,” veteran catcher Martín Maldonado said. “As a team, we do the same thing at home that we do on the road — preparation is the same. It’s one of those years where we do the same thing on the road that we do at home.” Except, of course, win. Entering Thursday, each of baseball’s six division leaders had played at least 68 home games. Only the Astros have won fewer than 40. Presuming they lose at least once in their final 12 home games, the Astros will finish with their lowest home winning percentage since 2016 — the last year they did not make the playoffs. During the subsequent winter, Minute Maid Park underwent an outfield overhaul. Tal’s Hill came down, the center field fences came in by more than 20 feet and a new, grassy batter’s eye towered above it. This week, multiple players inside Houston’s clubhouse described that batter’s eye as one possible reason for their struggles at home this season, and all of them stressed that it shouldn’t be used as an excuse. Both teams stare at the same backdrop, after all, but at least two Astros agreed the team has had some trouble seeing the baseball at home. “It’s like night and day,” one player said of the difference in hitting at Minute Maid Park and on the road, where Houston has an American League-leading .800 OPS. The Astros have a .734 OPS in 69 games at Minute Maid Park this season. That Jose Altuve has only started 33 of them will dent the numbers, as will José Abreu’s underperformance. Houston signed Abreu this winter in hopes he would seize advantage of the Crawford Boxes and offer more slug in its right-handed heavy lineup. Abreu has responded with a .617 OPS in 233 plate appearances at Minute Maid Park. Just four of his 14 home runs have come at home. Couple that with Maldonado’s nonexistent offense, Jeremy Peña’s sophomore slump and higher road splits from Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker and a blueprint for the struggles starts to unfold. “I think I see the ball all right there,” said outfielder Chas McCormick, who boasts a .948 OPS at home and .854 clip on the road. “There are times where I’m like ‘Whoa, I didn’t see that one,’ but I hear some guys talk about that. It’s kind of hard to see, but I don’t know.” Minute Maid Park’s batter’s eye has been in place since 2017. Houston’s home OPS numbers have declined in each 162-game season since 2019 — .848 (2019), .783 (2021) and .743 (2022). This season, opponents are slashing .254/.325/.417 for a .742 OPS at Minute Maid Park. Houston’s starting pitchers have a 4.14 home ERA and the team’s 3.97 ERA is its highest at home since a 3.80 mark in 2021. Five of Houston’s eight extra-inning losses have occurred at Minute Maid Park, too. One player described the batter’s eye as “not high enough” with “too much stuff behind it.” A Budweiser sign and some television screens on the right side create problems, too, the player said. Left-handed pitchers are particularly difficult to see against the batter’s eye, according to two players, but the team does have an .832 OPS and .475 slugging percentage against southpaws at Minute Maid Park this season. Right-handers are holding Houston to a .241/.313/.383 slash line at home. Only the Tigers, White Sox, Giants and A’s have a lower OPS against right-handed pitching at home. In 2018, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris analyzed how differently Minute Maid Park played without Tal’s Hill. Former designated hitter Evan Gattis told Sarris “there’s **** going on in center field” (Major League Baseball did conclude that Houston electronically stole signs at home during parts of the season). “I don’t know if that’s it, or what,” Gattis continued, referring to the so-called s— in center field. “I try my best to put it out of my mind and not think about it, but it’s hard to hit here, especially right-handed hitters.” More recently, Sarris studied a recent change at San Diego’s Petco Park, which in 2022 went from an all-black batter’s eye to ivy, giving it a look similar to that of Minute Maid Park since 2017. Perhaps fittingly, Houston will welcome the Padres to Minute Maid Park for Friday’s homestand opener in one of their final chances to correct a season of poor home play. “I have no clue (why), I just know we’ve executed better and played better on the road,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “No idea. We need to clean that up and be better at home.”
Was thinking ahead and looking at some major decisions they have coming. Specifically Altuve and Bregman being FA after next year and Tucker and Framber after the '25 season. Curious what it will take to resign Altuve? He'll be 35 when he's a FA. The way he's playing (and if he can have another productive year next season) even though he'll be 35 he sure isn't going to come cheap. Same with Bregman (he'll be 31 when he's a FA). I know Dana Brown was saying he feels confident that Tucker will be resigned. I just don't see it unless Crane has a change of philosophy on how they've stayed away from long contracts. So four key cogs in this unbelievable machine are hitting FA and obviously they're not going to be able to resign all four. Thoughts on what it might take to get Altuve and Bregman signed? Would 3 yr/75 get it done for Altuve? Does some team give Bregman a multi-year deal (6-8 yrs)? Would a 5 yr/125 be enough to get Bregman resigned? Thoughts?
I've heard other team's players complain about our field batter's eye, but I haven't heard of our players complain before. I had always assumed that they were used to it by now. Out of curiosity I went back and looked at team OPS home/away all the way back to 2017 (skipping the shortened 2020 season): 2023 (to date): Home .734, Away .801 (difference of .067) 2022: Home .779, Away .711 (difference of -.068) 2021: Home .787, Away .780 (difference of -.007) 2019: Home .878, Away .819 (difference of -.059--- damn that's was a hell of an offense) 2018: Home .731, Away .777 (difference of .046) 2017: Home .812, Away .834 (difference of .022) My takeaway from that is they are kind of all over the place, but they've been better at home than on the road about as often as the reverse. I don't think it is a batter's eye that is suddenly affecting their ability to hit at home. Their pitching has been worse at home as well.
Jose Abreu has a .467 xwOBA over the past two weeks....is he fixed? Maybe he should have gotten that injection back in June or something.
