Unless Crane has suddenly had a change of heart, it isn’t happening. The Astros would be hamstrung the next couple of seasons. Crane went to his limit this last off season on Verlander. The third year player option is why he ended up in NY and not Houston or Toronto. If the Mets are willing to eat a lot of money, like they did on Scherzer (35 million), it is very possible the Astros agree to trade someone like Gilbert. That would likely involve the Mets taking Montero and sending cash. Crane has said he would go over the luxury tax, but as far as I am aware he has never said he would for 2-3 years straight. So the chances of the Astros not taking money back from the Mets is low. Also, Brown is going to want some payroll flexibility to make moves over the next couple seasons - be that signing relievers, etc. The most likely scenario would be the Mets identifying the prospect they want and then agreeing to a financial number where the Astros feel justified and making the deal. Verlander is owed 14 mil this season, 43 mil next season and then a likely player option. The Mets would likely offer at least 35 million in cash. The issue would be the last year - The Astros would likely rather have the Mets take Montero and give money. With the Astros needs - the Mets taking Montero and/or sending back money makes a huge difference - I think enough for them to offer Gilbert and another good prospect the Mets want.
Great from an Astros perspective But the Mets ain’t lookin to cut costs, they only move JV if they get the right player or players back
As much as I like Gilbert as a prospect, I think if Brown can get the Mets to take Montero and pay for that much of JV's salary, I'd be willing to part with him. I'm by no means an expert in the Astros farm system, scouting or the minor leagues. But it seems like the one area they have depth in the minors right now is the outfield. That paired with the recent performance by Chas and Tucker's dominance has me less worried about outfield production in the immediate future. Meanwhile, outside of France, the Astros starters have been wildly inconsistent the last month or two. If Framber and Javier can't find their dominant forms over the next two months, who is the Astros ace? They don't just need an innings eater. They need someone they can trust toward the top of the rotation. Brown needs to make this deal or something like it.
Maybe I'm reading baseball savant incorrectly but it looks to me that JV is slightly worse this year vs last year in almost every category.
Sure but last year he won a cy young. Slightly worse than Cy Young is still really good. It’s a manageable decline that’s still super valuable. And it includes his first month or so back which wasn’t great, and he’s been better now.
Spoiler Want to put the Mets’ payment of approximately $36 million to the Rangers in the Max Scherzer trade in perspective? The Mets included that amount along with Scherzer to acquire infield prospect Luisangel Acuña, who could turn out to be another Ozzie Albies. The Braves gave the actual Albies less than that when they signed him to a seven-year, $35 million contract in 2019. Scherzer is owed nearly $15 million for the rest of the season. The Rangers, according to sources briefed on the deal’s financial breakdown, are covering about $6 million of that amount. Next season, Scherzer is owed $43.33 million, and the Rangers will pay roughly $16.5 million of that. Using those approximate numbers, the Mets will save about $9 million in salary and $8 million in luxury tax this season as they pay a 90 percent penalty for every dollar they spend over the highest threshold. Next season, with the roughly $16.5 million savings in Scherzer’s salary and the highest penalty rate rising to 110 percent, they would avoid more than $18 million in tax. This all assumes the Mets again will be over the highest threshold, but with Cohen that’s a good assumption, even if the Mets continue on this path and trade Justin Verlander, too. Every dollar they would include in that trade, just like every dollar they included in the Scherzer deal, would count against their luxury-tax payroll. A trade of Verlander would raise the question of who will pitch for the Mets next week, much less next season, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Whatever Cohen does next, he can rebuild his rotation by plowing into free agency all over again this offseason, be it for Julio Urías, Aaron Nola or, ahem, Shohei Ohtani. The David Robertson deal also saved the Mets money, about $3.5 million in salary and $3.2 million in tax, while netting two additional high-ceiling prospects from the Marlins. Even for billionaires, every dollar counts, right? And it seems a reasonable bet Cohen will be reinvesting every one of those dollars and millions more into the 2024 roster. It’s the all-time money whip, but it has yet to get the Mets anywhere near the World Series title Cohen said he wanted within three to five years when he took control of the team in Jan. 2021. And while the Mets are effectively buying prospects to accelerate the restoration of their farm system, there is no guarantee these kids will turn out as good as club officials project. How much did it actually cost the Mets to get Acuña? Difficult to say, because the Rangers are not just getting money in the trade, they’re also getting Scherzer. And calculating what Scherzer will be worth to the Rangers is all but impossible. No one knows if he will stay healthy. No one knows how he will perform. Scherzer’s ERA+ this season is just above league average. He has produced 0.9 fWAR, putting him on track to finish with about 1.4. Fangraphs estimates 1 WAR to be worth about $8 million in free agency, but some analysts believe the number is closer to $9 million or $10 million. So Scherzer thus far projects to be a $12 million to $14 million pitcher in 2023. If he finishes strong, maybe $15 million or more. At his best, Scherzer is worth considerably more than that, if not $43.33 million. But he has had side and back issues this season, and he had oblique issues last season. The Rangers, who presumably will want him to start Game 1 of a playoff series, evidently overlooked how he wore down the last two Octobers. However you calculate it, Scherzer’s value to the Rangers is not $0, so Acuña is not valued at $36 million. But the price of a top 100 prospect — Acuña was No. 87 in Baseball America’s in-season update, and No. 58 in the ranking by The Athletic’s Keith Law — might indeed be in the tens of millions. Cohen was willing to pay such a price for Acuña. He might be willing to pay it again in a comparable return for Verlander. But the Astros, Verlander’s previous club and perhaps the one for which he is most willing to waive his no-trade clause, did not place a single player in BA’s latest top 100. So unless Verlander is willing to go elsewhere, maybe a deal doesn’t happen and he remains with the Mets next season. For $43.33 million at age 41. It’s only money. Spend some, save some, spend some more.
Cohen likes to make the big headlining splash. If he’s trading Verlander, it’s because they are going all in on Shohei Ohtani this off-season. So, do the Astros have enough to beat the Dodgers or Yankees if Verlander wants to go to those teams? Or Maybe the Yankees, Dodgers want Shohei Ohtani next year and pass on Verlander.
Thinking the Mets want pitching and OF in return for JV. Not sure we have what they want if they’re going to eat the majority of his contract. Brown and France would do but that an obvious hard no from the Astros
Cohen basically buying top prospects and there’s no limit. This really begs for a salary cap. Then again with all their spending the Mets (and Padres) can’t win
The Mets will take any high upside prospect (pitching or hitting)…. Or they’ll stand pat. They can always go out and get any proven pitcher they feel will help them. Right now, they’re tapping into a market of plus prospects that they otherwise wouldn’t have access to.
Tell that to the teams that take the Mets luxury tax payouts… and don’t actually spend it on the team. That’s a bigger problem as some of those teams, with just a little bit more spending, would have a real shot.
Seems like there’s enough being leaked that at least one side does want to see something happen for sure. As we saw yesterday, those option negotiations don’t seem to be a significant enough hurdle if one team really wants something. Also one second Max’s option was being left open… and the next second it was fully covered and opted into.
I agree they want plus prospects. I think if the Mets are going to eat a lot of his contract, they’ll want a top prospect plus a MLB ready arm to eat up innings after losing 2 starters. France or Brown cover both, but obviously those 2 aren’t available.
I would think anyone trading for Verlander would want it done today fairly early so that he doesn't pitch and he's got an early afternoon game.
