[2023 NFL Draft/1-2] C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Ranking first-round QBs of past five NFL drafts vs. 2024 prospects
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/dr...nfl-draft-first-round-qbs-2019-2024-prospects

To get a sense of the best quarterback prospects of the past five years, we stacked the 16 passers who were taken in Round 1 over 2019-2023. That conversation covers the likes of Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young and Kyler Murray. Then we dropped Williams and Maye -- the only two first-round graded QBs in my evaluations right now -- into the mix and ranked them against those recent Day 1 selections.

We polled NFL scouts, decision-makers and analysts to help build the list, and pre-draft grades were the only consideration here. What each quarterback has done as a pro isn't factored in at all, and over- or underperforming in the NFL relative to draft stock doesn't matter. We're just piling all 18 quarterbacks together as though they were all in the same draft class. So who is No. 1 on the list as the top quarterback prospect going back to 2019? You might be surprised ...

1. Caleb Williams (2024)

Potential is a scary word when it comes to prospects, but USC's Williams is loaded with it. At 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, he has excellent arm strength and ability to create on the move. He's a true playmaker and an artist, throwing for 4,537 yards and accounting for 52 total touchdowns last season, his first with the Trojans after transferring from Oklahoma.

"Every play is successful because he either throws on time or moves and makes it happen. He has that off-script [Patrick] Mahomes factor," one AFC scout said.

Williams is also coming from Lincoln Riley's scheme, which has produced NFL quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. There's a season of college football left for Williams, but right now, his star is shining brighter than any quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck (2012).

An NFL general manager told me, "There's potential and then there's what he's done in a year and a half as a starter. He's not only the best quarterback in college, but he has the best of all the traits needed to be great."

2. Trevor Lawrence (2021) | Drafted: No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence was deemed the next great quarterback prospect before he even took a snap for Clemson, as the replacement for incumbent Kelly Bryant. The consensus five-star prep recruit became a two-and-a-half-year starter for the Tigers, posting a 34-2 record and racking up 90 passing touchdowns before becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Lawrence's combination of arm strength, mobility, creativity and 6-foot-6 size stood out in the lead-up to that draft, and after a rocky rookie year, Lawrence threw 25 touchdown passes in 2022. He has reshaped the culture and expectations in Jacksonville in just two years, leading the team to an AFC South title and its first playoff win since 2017.

"There was Luck, but then there was Lawrence, who was like a better -- faster, bigger, stronger arm -- version. Trevor was 2.0," one NFL GM said.

3. Joe Burrow (2020) | Drafted: No. 1, Cincinnati Bengals
4. Drake Maye (2024)

The reigning ACC Player of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year has already drawn comparisons to Herbert for his size (6-foot-4, 225 pounds), arm strength and power as a runner.

"Maye would be QB1 in most drafts," an AFC area scout said.

In his first season under center for the Tar Heels, he improved the North Carolina offense, throwing for 38 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions while also running for seven more scores. Maye is still an unknown with just 14 games under his belt, but the potential is outstanding. It might seem like the No. 1 spot in 2024 firmly belongs to Williams, but Maye should be a worthy competitor over the next nine months.

"If Caleb Williams weren't in this draft, we'd be talking about Maye as a generational prospect," an AFC executive said. "He still might be one."

5. Tua Tagovailoa (2020) | Drafted: No. 5, Miami Dolphins

"Tank for Tua" was a real thing thanks to the instincts, poise and accuracy that the Alabama passer showed during his time in Tuscaloosa. The comparisons to Drew Brees and Steve Young were real, too. Tagovailoa dominated in college with touch, timing, anticipation and field vision, but he also showed enough mobility to frustrate defenses.

"The only knock on Tua was a lack of size and the injury concerns -- which ended up being pretty significant," an AFC scout said. "But if we're talking about a grade on the film alone, he's one of the best of the last decade, hands down."

Even with a serious hip injury putting his pro prospects in question, the film was good enough for Tagovailoa to be selected at No. 5 overall in a loaded QB class. He got off to a tough start in the NFL but then had a really strong 2022 season, finishing third in Total QBR (68.8) and averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa did miss some time, though, with multiple stints in the concussion protocol over the course of the campaign.

6. Justin Herbert (2020) | Drafted: No. 6, Los Angeles Chargers
7. Bryce Young (2023) | Drafted: No. 1, Carolina Panthers
8. Zach Wilson (2021) | Drafted: No. 2, New York Jets

It might seem like a distant memory now, but before the 2021 draft, there were some teams that had Wilson rated higher than Lawrence. Wilson played off platform and off schedule, and he dominated defenses with an excellent deep ball and awesome ability to evade pass-rushers. He hit his peak at the right time, coming alive in his junior season and shrugging off injury issues that plagued his first two seasons at BYU.

Early returns on those evaluations haven't been good, as he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in both of his pro campaigns. And now, he's the backup in New York after the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers. But when restacking prospects based on pre-draft scouting reports, Wilson still scores very highly. And at just 23 years old, there is still time for him to regain some of that star power.

9. C.J. Stroud (2023) | Drafted: No. 2, Houston Texans

A 25-game starter at Ohio State, Stroud left college with a fantastic 21-4 record and a wild 85-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio that helped him become the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft. He hit every mark in terms of arm strength, mobility, poise and toughness. Scouts raved about his final performance -- a playoff showdown against Georgia -- and his combine workout, and there were some who preferred the known commodity of Stroud's tape to the question mark of Young's size. Stroud finished last season with an 88.9 Total QBR (second in the nation) and completed 66.3% of his passes.

"Stroud, if he had played at LSU or Clemson or Alabama, would have been the first overall pick. Teams got scared by the helmet and forgot to scout the player," a longtime AFC area scout said, referencing the Buckeyes' QB-friendly scheme and a few recent OSU quarterback prospects who haven't worked out in the NFL.

10. Kyler Murray (2019) | Drafted: No. 1, Arizona Cardinals
11. Trey Lance (2021) | Drafted: No. 3, San Francisco 49ers

The 6-foot-4, 224-pound Lance needed to start just 17 games at FCS-level North Dakota State -- including one single game in his final season -- to convince Niners GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan to trade up the board to select him at No. 3 overall. He wowed scouts with upside that many compared to Mahomes and Josh Allen thanks to Lance's ability to torch defenses with his running and field vision.

Lance's NFL career has yet to get going because of injury and the rise of Brock Purdy, but the story is not completely written on him just yet. At only 23 years old, Lance has a lot of football ahead of him.

12. Anthony Richardson (2023) | Drafted: No. 4, Indianapolis Colts
13. Justin Fields (2021) | Drafted: No. 11, Chicago Bears

When Fields was entering the draft, there were some scouts and evaluators who saw him equal to Lawrence, much like he was when the two were coming out of high school. But others believed Fields was propped up by the scheme and talent around him at Ohio State. That's why the two-time Heisman finalist who went 20-2 and threw for 67 touchdown passes to nine interceptions fell to No. 11 overall in a quarterback-driven league.

"The concerns about Fields coming out were that he couldn't process the entire field fast enough or throw guys open. The jury is out on that part of his game still, but there's no denying he's becoming a much greater running threat than anyone could have imagined," an NFC area scout said.

Fields had a tough rookie year but threw 17 touchdown passes and ran for over 1,000 yards last season. However, he also took 55 sacks in 2022 and has completed just 59.7% of his passes over two years.

14. Mac Jones (2021) | Drafted: No. 15, New England Patriots
15. Daniel Jones (2019) | Drafted: No. 6, New York Giants
16. Dwayne Haskins (2019) | Drafted: No. 15, Washington Commanders

A one-year starter at Ohio State, Haskins won 13 of his 14 starts while accumulating 4,831 passing yards and 50 touchdown throws en route to numerous postseason awards. He was knocked in pre-draft conversations for his lack of experience, though.

"I loved Haskins," one area scout said, "and if he had gone somewhere other than Washington to start out, I think he would have had a better shot at success. There, they needed a savior, and he needed a supporting cast."

Haskins spent two years in Washington and one year in Pittsburgh (12 career TD passes) before he died in April 2022.

17. Jordan Love (2020) | Drafted: No. 26, Green Bay Packers
18. Kenny Pickett (2022) | Drafted: No. 20, Pittsburgh Steelers