Pena is pencilled in as the 37th most valuable trade chip in baseball. He’s more valuable than Cesar by himself. Pena is expected to put up >12 fwar over his remaining control. Meyers projects to put up >8 fwar over his remaining control. Garcia projects for ~5 fwar over his remaining control. So that’s 25 wins they are getting and the bulk of that is coming from players with more upside than downside given their defensive value and offensive upside, and I would argue there’s equal upside in Garcia to downside. Cease projects for ~7 fwar over his remaining control with Robert projecting for about 13 fwar over his remaining control. So the on-paper numbers are Chicago is trading 20 wins (a good portion of which are coming this year when they are worthless to them) for 25 wins (most of which are coming after this season). It may not be enough. It’s a HUGE trade so it’s impossible to know what either team would expect and what other teams would offer. But it’s reasonably fair.
We could do a lot worse than Dubon in our 9th hole and playing SS full time. Only issue is that we would lose our utility guy. We would need someone serviceable across the entire infield. We really don't need Garcia with JP, Urquidy, and potentially McCullers coming back. Finding another inning eater next season shouldn't be hard.
I’m not saying I’d do the deal but I wouldn’t hate it either. That’s potentially an MVP and a Cy young coming back, with 4 years and 3 years respectively. chas won’t be an all star ever in his career, Peña I think is good/not great and not particularly young, garcia could be a 2 or he could be a 4/5 and he’s hurt, if they picked France and Urquidy instead of gardia that's quantity over quality (quantity counts in pitching- there’s a lot of innings in the regular season to soak up) and meyers or Julks is eminently expendable if we have an OF of Tucker, Gilbert and Robert with Yordan rotating in there at times. That leaves really the only hole in the entire lineup at SS and I’m not sure I’d count Dubon hitting 9th as a “hole”. Chicago gets a lot of average to above average guys to chip away at a 162 game season in a shitty division.
I wonder if the Sox would be willing to do as follows? Cease, Robert, Anderson, Graveman and Hendriks For Pena, Garcia, Gilbert, Meyers, Arrighetti, Gordon and both Korey Lee and Milton? It hurts every where but if gets the White Sox going in a different direction. That's 3 bad contracts off there books. They get 5 prospects who are close if not a year away from being in the MLB. And the fact 2 main starters for next year will be fully healthy . They have control of all these guys
Just feel like there’s a lot more upside for the guys we are getting than the ones they are getting. I get that we’d be sending more war out than in, but 3 WAR in a defensive CF is just a lot less than 7 in an mvp type. I’m certainly not saying I’m right and you are wrong. Just my initial reaction was too little when it’s usually too much.
The possibility of having Robert Jr Alvarez Tucker Altuve ….. in your lineup is INSANE to think about. If Peña is the hold up in a trade for Robert Jr and possibly another pitcher, I think you gotta pull the trigger. Maybe Peña’s postseason run wasn’t a fluke… and maybe he figures out how to lay off the slider.. and maybe he figures out how to be more consistent…. But if Chicago wants him and you can get Robert AND Cease then you gotta do it.
Which is cheap for a player as talented as he is. Robert's not being able to stay healthy bothers me.
For this season, yes Gravemen would be more valuable. That's because we really NEED another quality bullpen guy and we have Chas hitting almost 900 OPS for the season. If we want to go all in for this season and the next 2, I say we get all three and trade Pena, Garcia, Meyers, Gilbert and 2 more prospects of their choosing.
I know you have to give up pieces to get that type of talent (Cease, Robert etc) but I'd be very reluctant to part ways with Pena or Diaz. Two important Defensive positions and they're both young and controllable for a good # of yrs. Not trading them and if CWS are demanding they're included (or even just one of them) I walk away and look at other options (a rental). If you're getting Robert then I could see including Chas and Meyers (or Julks). I would have no problem including guys like Gilbert, Lee, Leon, Urquidy, France as well but don't know if that's enough to get it done.
I know you have to give up pieces to get that type of talent (Cease, Robert etc) but I'd be very reluctant to part ways with Pena or Diaz. Two important Defensive positions and they're both young and controllable for a good # of yrs. Not trading them and if CWS are demanding they're included (or even just one of them) I walk away and look at other options (a rental). If you're getting Robert then I could see including Chas and Meyers (or Julks). I would have no problem including guys like Gilbert, Lee, Leon, Urquidy, France as well but don't know if that's enough to get it done.
I find it hard to believe the White Sox move Luis Robert. I also think it is unlikely they move Cease. If they want to compete in 2024, those guys are super valuable and would still be moveable for good packages next year. Giolito, Clevinger, Hendriks, Grandal & Lynn are all decent enough pieces to get something positive in return.
I suspect you’re right, although Schwab usually doesn’t post pure bullshit; he has a legit source and has been first to know on stuff in the past. But it is just hard to see the White Sox trading both Cease and Robert without getting a major overpay that really damages the other franchise. A Pena/Meyers package is a fair start but I think if a trade like that actually happens, it’ll be something that knowledgeable Astros fans really wince at. I am thinking something like Pena, Brown, Meyers, and Gilbert. Or Pena, Diaz, and Meyers. Something that most of us look at and say “that’s an overpay”.
I need to rant. These ridiculous scenarios really get my ire up. Houston is a championship team. You do not disassemble that to wind up with a LH bat and a patch to a temporary hole in the rotation. Adding a couple of rentals gives us the depth to move forward without concern and if we need to make some long term moves they should happen in the off-season when prices are not hyper inflated and there are more options to choose from. The Astros are not a desperate team. They have assembled a great group of players and will go deep into the play-offs as is. We have a top of the league ace and a deep enough staff to run a six man rotation at our weakest. When we get back our injured players there is not enough space on the roster to hold them all. The outfield of Tucker, Alvarez & Chaz can put up more wins than any outfield in the game. There are legitimate concerns in the infield down the road. Abreu, Bregman and Altuve are approaching the end of their careers. Each will need to be addressed but not today. There are legit prospects in the system that can be developed to replace them and there is no hurry. The only area that may need a little nudge is the bullpen. When the play-offs start the rotation gets cut down to four we suddenly will have more pitchers than we have places for in the pen. Calm confidence is what we should be feeling right now.
This is a deal that I would probably do if I don't need Meyers in a bigger deal. While neither Barlow or Hernandez are world beaters, both are actually solid....... I believe Barlow is under contract through 2024 and Hernandez for like 4 more years. The bullpen would have...... Pressly Abreu Neris Hernandez Barlow Maton
I love how you term a guy who will finish top 5 in the MVP voting as “a LH bat” and a guy who finished 2nd in the cy young voting last year as “a temporary patch in the rotation”. Both Robert and Cease are difference-making players who can single-handedly determine the outcome of any game they play in. I’m not weighing in on if giving up key core players like Pena is worth acquiring those guys (or even possible), but to write them off as needless maneuvers is silly.
