There was a time when the Astros went against conventional wisdom and signed a bunch of 18 and 19y/o international free agents. I would just say, given the Astros record I don't think their senior signs are that much less likely to be successful than other team's HS and College Junior picks.
Not really. It's chess not checkers. Teams will usually select their best players in the first 2 rounds, but must be reasonably sure they will sign. After that, signability is much much more important than talent or rankings. It's very common for a guy with top 3 or 4 rd talent to fall to day 3 if there is doubt about his signability or price.
Isn't that entire idea of having a strong scouting and development team? Identifying the players that they can acquire (relatively) easier/cheaper and extracting value out of them. For senior signs, there's no question signability is a primary motivator but there intriguing attributes and just the possibility that the player popped between junior and senior year. For Jake Bloss, the 3rd round pick, apparently his FB velo popped when he transferred to GTN for his last year of eligibility. EDIT* and regarding Loperfido, he's a legit prospect now. He's not top 100 but he was #8 on the Astros Fangraphs list. I don't have exact numbers on success rates, but generally a 24 y/o hitting for a 152 wRC+ in AA is going to make the show.
You are entitled to your opinion, but I think you are totally incorrect. College juniors do not drop from day 2 to day 3 because of signability. It is almost always talent.
Thanks and I agree and acknowledge that you are entitled to your opinion as well. In my opinion, and this may have changed from the way it was recently due to CBA terms, most teams don't want to risk not being able to sign a guy in day 2 or him requiring his slot, or more to sign. There are usually too many high ceiling gambles (including many of those same guys) available in day 3 and the risk of losing that slot money is too great and potentially damaging to an organization. For example, last year if any of the Astros picks in rds 1-10 required over slot money to sign, or if any (besides A.Taylor and Dombroski who signed for slot value not saving any money) did not sign, then they would not have had the money to sign Clifford. I'm sure we can agree that signing Clifford was a huge win for this organization.
This should be the last year it is a major factor, and it’s less of a factor than it was last year, but yes, it is a significant factor shaping the available talent. There are simply more Day2-3 caliber guys available this season than normal, so a lot of guys are seniors that would have been forced to enter the draft last season. That’s probably not having any impact on Day 1 picks, but I do bet it’s having a big impact on Day 2 Juniors and 2nd/3rd tier HS kids. Why draft a jr at slot or a fringey HS kid at slightly above slot when you can get a sr who is just as good (but got pushed a year by prior years COVID delayed talent) and sign them for nothing?
I was a little underwhelmed by day 2, particularly rounds 6-10. The pitchers don't look great statistically, and the infielders don't necessarily look better than round 12-14 infielders they took last year, though its conceivable that they'll sign for considerably less. This draft kind of feels a bit like last year's minus Gilbert and Clifford. I'm hopeful they'll add their Clifford equivalent today, but grabbing a Gilbert every year picking at the back of the first probably isn't a reasonable expectation. I'm looking forward to what they can do today. I think it'll be pretty heavy on pitching, and wonder if the extra pool money might go to multiple prep/juco arms if there's not a top hitter they can lure from college.
I don't know a thing about the draft prospects so I'm not gonna pretend to make some analysis on the players. The majority of every draft class will be forgotten in a few years. However it seems a little absurd to me that college senior=bad and that the Astros don't have reason to think they could develop with their coaching. Calling a draft terrible one day out is stupid. I remember how "terrible" the 21 draft was for similar reasons.
It’s one thing making me bullish on Jaworsky; that pick goes against logic for that spot, so I’m assuming he must have something Brown really liked.
Brice Matthews is getting George Springer comps. The upside is as good or better than Gilbert. If he can keep his K rate in check and stick at SS he's all-star upside. The floor is considerably lower though. I don't expect him to burn through the low minors like Gilbert. Gilbert was just a much more polished player, which as you said is not gonna fall to the end of the first round most year.
Sure, but I'm not sure Jacob Melton doesn't have that same kind of upside, and the Astros got him underslot in the 2nd last year. I looked at it like Matthews ~= Melton, Treadwell ~= Taylor, Bloss ~= Knorr. They might get a Clifford, but there's no Gilbert coming. Maybe the Astros just got extremely lucky last year with how the draft played out. Keep in mind, I'm just an idiot on the internet, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.
Just a thought: we really don't know how last year's draft has played out...may want to wait a couple of years on this one.
The Astros' first pick of Day 3 is... Round 11, Pick 344: Nehomar Ochoa Acosta, OF, Galena Park High School, Galena Park, Texas Ranked by Perfect Game as the top high school OF in Texas for 2023, Ochoa Acosta is commmitted to UH.
Maybe the plan is to stack a shitload of fringey HS kids who could’ve gone on day 2. 5 8th rounders is worth one 2nd rounder? Perfect game has Ochoa ranked 54th overall for Hs prospects and the #3 prospect in Texas. He’s a UH commit. Shows his FB as up to 95 so kids got an arm. Perfect game has Gasparino as the 44th overall prospect, Ochoa isn’t ranked far behind him on their list.
From prospectslive, who ranked him 190th Ochoa Acosta is one of the most physically imposing players in the 2023 class with a muscled-up, grown-man body with projection remaining. He's got tremendous bat speed and very real over-the-fence power right now. Some have compared the physique to Elijah Green, with a little less polish and more length to grow into. Ochoa Acosta has an above average arm in the corner, though he lacks the athleticism to use it on plays on the run. He's an average runner with longer strides, some scouts opining he could hang onto that speed as he ages. The body will be what evaluators watch moving forward. It's hard not to like what he brings to the batters box right now. Big dude hits ball hard, but does he hit ball often?
