Very odd draft so far for Houston. I have a lot of faith in this front office in this arena; they have a lot of great knowledge bases to draw from and their track records give them a ton of credibility. But still if they don’t end up taking a guy who was thought of as a top 100 draftee type then these day 2 picks really don’t make sense.
Pecko had a 1.04 ERA in 5 starts in the Northwoods league this summer, with 36 strikeouts to 8 walks. Pretty uninspiring collegiate career before that. He's pretty young for a college player, so that's cool.
But that is not the case. There is a report out from fangraphs that Matthews would not have made it past the comp round and Tredwell was drafted right around where most analysts projected. Bloss as a senior sign does seem like an underslot pick
Matthews may not be a huge under slot signing but he should definitely represent some savings. I agree that Tredwell is probably a slot signing. But the Sr. signs all should sign for near nothing.
So looking back at Braves drafts: 2019: Took several guys after the 10th round at bonuses exceeding the $125K limit. Really spread it around. Vaughn Grissom being the biggest name in the 11th. 2020: Went overslot to get Bryce Elder for $847,500 in the 5th round. Currently in their rotation. 2021: Took Dylan Dodd (their #9 prospect) in the 3rd round below slot, used savings to sign AJ Smith-Shawver (their top prospect currently) in the 7th round for $1M. Dodd & Smith-Shawver are in the majors. Also signed Tyler Collins in the 8th round and Adam Shoemaker in the 11th at overslot deals using other savings. Shoemaker is 26th on their top 30, while Collins does not appear. 2022: Took Adam Maier (#11 prospect) in the 7th round and paid him $1.2M. Only gave $2,500 bonuses to rounds 8-10. In every case they did sign their 1st pick for underslot, but not by crazy amounts.
Will Gasparino would be a Ryan Clifford type pick. Caden Sorrell would be a Tyler Whitaker type. Tanner Witt would be a Bryce Elder type. I like Zion Rose as well at ~$800k.
Based on what fangraphs said they were hearing, Matthews was drafted right around where some teams expected him to go. Maybe the report is accurate, maybe it is not. But if it is, I think you are going to be disappointed with the savings. While some sites had him around pick 60, others had him in the low 30s. At this point it seems the analysts projecting him to go earlier were correct
Sorry, was in a meeting Round 6, Pick 194: Ethan Pecko, RHP, Towson Round 7, Pick 224: Joey Dixon, RHP, Stanford
It’s weird taking guys 1-3 rounds early if there isn’t another reason (like slot savings) for it. Yeah they already have idea about everyone and have talked numbers with lots of those guys, right? With no trading or the like it should be rapid fire for sure.
There are still 17 guys from the top 111 of the mlb.com rankings still available, so Houston should very likely be able to get another good prospect tomorrow.
