2023 Astros Minor League Thread

70 future hit tool is very generous, that's a .300+ hitter annually. I think Barber is a solid .280ish hitter that hits 20-25 homers and can play solid defense if he stays healthy. Maybe a young Nick Markakis is a good comp. Maybe JD Drew even given the ceiling and injury history although Barber is slightly smaller.

 

IMO Astros AAA is extremely hard for starting pitchers - so I don’t need to see a 2.50 ERA, even a 4 ERA can be sufficient for promotion if the K/BB rate is there and I see some consistency.

Honestly - I defer to the Astros player development people to say when he is ready. I view him as a top 50-75 prospect value wise. If I saw 3-5 strong outings in a row I would think he would be worth a look.

He obviously isn’t a prodigy or he would be up now - but he can be at least an Urquidy/France type player if he is handled properly.

 

This is an example of the problem with fangraphs.

First, this year is the best year of his career at the plate. He is at a higher level, he is more confident and working counts better than he did at any point in the minors at a lower level. His eye has improved and he is working walks well.

His glove is as capable in CF as it was at lower levels. Why is he not playing CF this year? Drew Gilbert is on the team with him, and Kennedy Corona is a elite CFer on the same team as well.

So nothing has really changed. I suppose maybe someone could have expected an explosion when he went to AA - but that doesn’t hit with how he has played. He is someone that has above average power with the potential to maybe add some more as he fills out. He can strikeout- but also can really work counts and walk at a pretty high level. Defensively he is exceptional at a corner spot or adequate in center - but with Drew Gilbert and others also playing center (Astros see Kenni Gomez playing there potentially), Barber was never likely to be the Astros CFer.

Also fangraphs ever having his hit tool at 70 based on his performance was too high. He has the chance to be an overall very good hitter - an ideal type outcome being Bobby Abreu- but he isn’t Wade Boggs or Miguel Cabrera with the stick.

 

Great to hear. Thanks for the clarification Nook. Interesting that kind of info didn't make it out to scouting reports but I'll take it.

 

I have concluded that fangraphs like other commercial scouting services are stretched thin with a few people covering 30 teams and as a result it’s not as detail oriented and assumptions have to be made.

 

Look at how good the pitching development staff has been with the pitching this year. Blanco, France and even Dubin have come up big when the Stros have needed them most. The development staff has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt.

I think he can be a solid SP2 or 3.

 

3 scoreless for Arrighetti in relief to get his ERA looking shiny. I have a hunch we’ll see him at some point soon, there’s a lot of opportunity in the rotation.

 

I think Barber was being too patient the last few years. Or maybe better to say that he was just working on seeing more pitches or the team had him working on this or something. Whatever it was has probably laid the foundation for the breakout we have seen over the last 3 or 4 weeks. He has been more aggressive, striking out less and hitting for much more power.
I like that Nick Markakis comp. Has anyone ever had a quieter 2300 hits in a career than Markakis?
He just sort of up and quit at the age of 36 too while still being a good hitter. Imagine had he tried to hang around for some bad team like the Royals. He'd be knocking on the door to 3,000 perhaps.

 

36% CSW for Arrighetti tonight.

 

Spoiler: Snake's Astros Top 30 Prospects: June Update

Grade 55:
1. OF Drew Gilbert (preseason rank: 2): injury was a bummer because he could be in position to get called up
2. OF Colin Barber (9): keeps walking and hitting for power and now the k rate has come down, stock up

Grade 50:
3. C Korey Lee (6)
4. RHP Spencer Arrighetti (15): looked good in his 2nd AAA appearance. 4 weeks of AAA dominance away from being deep in the mix for a big league callup
5. OF Jacob Melton (5)
6. OF/1B Ryan Clifford (13)

Grade 45+:
7. OF/2B Pedro Leon (4): rebounded in June, k rate is still high and overall value still very much tbd but glad to see signs of life
8. OF Kenedy Corona (HM): still showing really really well in AA, very high ceiling, stock way up
9. OF/2B/1B Joey Loperfido (HM): I'm still very high on him
10. 3B Zach Dezenzo (HM): adjusting well to AA, very healthy k/bb rates; the ceiling is very high
11. RHP Andrew Taylor (10): chugging along fine in A ball, may develop a little more slowly than expected but big ceiling still there
12. RHP Rhett Kouba (HM): ready for AAA
13. LHP Colton Gordon (27): ready for AAA

Grade 45:
14. LHP Julio Robaina (28): solid Bor SP or MR candidate
15. RHP Michael Knorr (HM): very good early returns in High A, big time breakout candidate in AA next season
16. 3B Joe Perez (8): starting to tamp down the strikeouts a bit, also playing all 4 corners; he's still only 23 and missed a lot of time, so there's a good bit of ceiling there
17. OF Kenni Gomez (20): can't wait to see how he does in A ball next year
18. OF Luis Baez (21): can't wait to see how he does in A ball next year
19. RHP Forrest Whitley (7): injury and flat performance, near the end of the line
20. RHP Jaime Melendez (11): injured, looks like it might be a lost season for him
21. RHP Nolan DeVos (HM): some of the best stuff in the system
22. RHP Trey Dombroski (HM): solid left Bor candidate although others think there's potential for more
23. OF Quincy Hamilton (HM): thru 90 pa in AAA he is walking a lot, rarely striking out, and hitting for power; if his babip were higher in Sugar Land he'd probably be getting a lot of hype.
24. IF Shay Whitcomb (HM): 34% k against 3% walks in AAA is a huge red flag but he's had that waving since the beginning; SS who hit for big power get chances in the majors.
25. RHP Jairo Solis (HM)
26. RHP Carlos Espinosa (HM): ready to see how he does in full season ball. 2024 breakout candidate.
27. RHP Angel Macuare (29): got hurt, fine SP5 or MR candidate
28. RHP Ryan Gusto (HM): I was in on him when they drafted him but let the late start and Asheville numbers scare me off; I"m back in on him as a solid Bor/MR guy.
29. C Miguel Palma (HM)
30. RHP Alex Santos II (12): Stock is way down but I'm still hanging on to a sliver of his draft promise

Honorable Mention / Grade 40+:
C: Luke Berryhill
IF: Dauri Lorenzo, Alberto Hernandez, Will Wagner, German Ramirez, Camilo Diaz, , Tim Borden II, Cristian Gonzalez
OF: Esmil Valencia, Tyler Whitaker, Justin Dirden, Zach Daniels, Zach Cole, Jordan Brewer, Eduardo Perez
P: Diosmerky Taveras, Jose Guedez, Jose Fleury, Miguel Ullola, Misael Tamarez, Tyler Guilfoil, AJ Blubaugh, Jayden Murray

Honorable Mention / Grade 40:
C: JC Correa, Collin Price, Ryan Wrobleski, Nerio Rodriguez, Sandro Gaston, Juan Santander, CJ Stubbs
IF: Alejandro Nunez, Chad Stevens, Andrews Sosa, Jancel Villarroel, Marco Marcelino, Darwin De Leon, Sandro Pereira, Tommy Sacco Jr., Ricardo Balogh, Freudis Nova, Narbe Cruz
OF: Luis Colon, Cristopfer Gonzalez, Ariel Lebron, Karniel Pratt, Andy Colon, Rolando Espinosa, Alex McKenna, Matthew Barefoot, Logan Cerny, Ross Adolph, Marty Costes, Roilan Machandy, Daniel Familia
P: all of them

Graduated: Hunter Brown (1), Yainer Diaz (3), Shawn Dubin (14), Corey Julks (18), JP France (25), Grae Kessinger (HM)
Fell off the top 30: Jayden Murray (16), Tyler Whitaker (17), Justin Dirden (19), Cristian Gonzalez (22), Misael Tamarez (23), Miguel Ullola (24), Adrian Chaidez (26), Tyler Brown (30)

My rankings are fluctuating a lot month to month because I feel like prospecting is still recovering from 2020. That won't be the case as we get to the end of this season and beyond, but for now there are a lot of guys who weren't very much on the radar who are now in the org Top10, while some of the top guys are tumbling down the list.

A pretty good month for the system heading toward the deadline. Top tier pitching is a glaring weakness but otherwise the system looks very healthy. Worth noting that so far this year they've graduated 6 guys, 4 of whom have been core contributors, the other 2 have contributing meaninfully to at least 1 win.

 

Surprised to see Fleury so low.

 

I would not argue against him being ranked as high as 19th. He could shoot up, I am just always late on the international arms.

 

Gonzalez hit a double and a triple today. I had similar thoughts on him. He's playing CF and has hit 3 triples on the season, so he must be at least somewhat athletic. At 167, he could probably add 60+ lbs over the next few years. I'm very intrigued.

I'm not sure Luis Baez or Kenni Gomez as individual prospects are better prospects now than Miguelangel Sierra or Gilberto Celestino when they were prospects coming through the complex, but they at least seem comparable. I don't think there's been a group of Astro's hitting prospects to make the jump from DSL to the FCL that's been more interesting than Baez/Gomez/Hernandez/Luciano/Nunez. As bad as Fayetteville's lineup is right now, it could be really fun next year.

 

Those look like middle school kids

 

June ops >900:
AAA: Leon, Singleton, Hamilton
AA: Loperfido, Barber, Stevens, Aviles
High A: Clifford
A: Cole
FCL: Baez, Familia
DSL: Sosa, L Colon, De Leon, Trujillo, Cauro, Pereira, Gonzalez, Villarroel, Valencia, A Colon