Like everyone, I'm excited. Got me to thinking about what to expect going forward. This may end up being long, but hopefully substantive. Steph Curry was born in 1988 and drafted in 2009. Klay Thompson was born in 1990 and drafted in 2011. Draymond Green was born in 1990 and drafted in 2012. There are a lot more names that have contributed to all of the Warriors' successes, but those are the three man guys who've been there all along. In 2011-2012, Klay's rookie year/the year before Draymond was drafted, the Warriors went 23-43 (was there a strike/lockout that year?). In 2012-2013, Draymond's rookie season, they made a huge leap forward, going 47-35. They won a 1st-rd playoff series, then lost in the Conference Semis. 2013-2014, they went 51-31, but were beaten in the 1st rd. They fired Mark Jackson and hired Rat**** Kerr. 2014-2015, they figured it all out, went 67-15 and won their first Championship. Curry was in his 6th season, Thompson his 4th season, Draymond his 3rd. Curry was age 27, and Thompson and Draymond were 25. Kevin Porter Jr., b. 2000, drafted 2019 Tari Eason, b. 2001, drafted 2022 Alperen Sengun, b. 2002, drafted 2021 Jalen Green, b. 2002, drafted 2021 Jabari Smith Jr., b. 2003, drafted 2022 Amen Thompson, b. 2003, drafted 2023 Cam Whitmore, b. 2004, drafted 2023 So, using the Warriors as an example, we might reasonably expect the Rockets to possibly take a big step forward this season, maybe even win a playoff round (though that will depend a ton on Free Agency and Udoka...the Warriors also had Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut in their ecosystem at varying points in that cycle). KPJ's 6th year would be 2024-25. He would be about 25. Sengun and Green's 6th seasons would be 2026-27. Those would also correspond with their age 25 (roughly) seasons. Tari will be 25 in 2026. Jabari and Amen turn 25 in 2028. Baby Cam won't be 25 until 2029. It is not unreasonable to hope we can take a large step forward this season, especially depending on Udoka being the right fit and Free Agency. The Warriors weren't much better than us in 2011-12. They only won 23 games, but (accounting for shorter season) they did win 34% of their games (about a 29 win pace for a regular season). And I highly doubt they were tanking like we were. Will our path correspond exactly to one of the best dynasties this League has ever seen? Not super likely, but it's helpful to look at a specific example as we try to figure out what to expect going forward. Making the playoffs (even just play-in) would be a huge step forward this season. 2024-25, you'd hope to see at least a Conference Semi appearance, hopefully speaking. Then by 2025-26, you'd like to see this team firmly established as a top 8 team or so in the NBA. That actually all seems frightfully fast when I lay it out like that. But 2026-27 is the season when Sengun and Green would be Steph's age when he won his first title. So... Patience. Kind of. Maybe I'll do the Spurs next. Champions built largely through Free Agency don't really correspond as well.
They made a huge leap in Steph's 4th year (Klay's 2nd, Draymond's 1st). Next they stalled a bit in Steph Year 5. Then exploded and solved/redefined basketball in Steph Year 6.
Tim Duncan was born 1976, drafted 1997. I'm not going to pay much attention to their triple-fake, who gives a **** title* from 1999. It doesn't count, and it isn't as particularly homegrown correlative as their 2000-10s run. Tony Parker was born 1982, drafted 2001. Manu Ginobili was born 1977, drafted 2002. The Spurs are a weirder analog, because they did that weird zombie-stagger where fate and fortune kept gifting them insane talents to build around from separate NBA "generations" (first Robinson, then 10 years later Duncan, then 15 years later Kawhi). Not sure how useful their story is for trying to project ours. But Duncan was about 26 when they won it all in 2003. Parker was only 21. Manu was 25. The Bulls... Michael Jordan was born 1963, drafted 1984. Scottie Pippen was born 1965, drafted 1987. Horace Grant was born 1965, drafted 1987. Bulls won their first title in 1991: Jordan (28), Pippen (26), Grant (26). I'm starting to sense some patterns here. Dudes really dude-ify when they're 25-27 years old. I've watched enough basketball that I should've known that already (and kind of did), but it's really there when you lay it all out and look at it. If this young Rockets core is going to be what we all hope they'll be, the 2025-26/2026-27 seasons are when that explosion should really happen. For grins...In the two years before the Spurs and Bulls won their first championships, they were: Spurs 2000-2001: 58-24, lost Conference Finals Spurs 2001-2002: 58-24, lost Conference Semis (both years to the Kobe/Shaq Lakers) Bulls 1989-1990: 55-27, lost Conference Finals Bulls 1988-1989: 47-35, lost Conference Finals So... This should be the year before the year, by all rights. But we need to see some very substantial growth and steps forward. Stone has a lot riding on his shoulders with how he fills out the rest of this roster with all the money and Vets. And Udoka has a lot of pressure to prove he has the right vision for how to get all these pups to play together and the ability to execute. But with any luck, it won't be long before we're all back to the miserable days of checking to see if Scott Foster and/or Tony Brothers have been sent in by the Narrative Basketball Association to manage results. We have basically one season (this one) to start to figure our **** out, then we need to start winning playoff series.
But even if the Rockets didn't win a Championship until 2028-29...Al and Jalen would be the same ages Steph was when he won his first. So 2025-26 would be the very early horizon of contention, and I'd say if they aren't seriously knocking on the door by '28-'29, then this whole thing didn't really go the way we all hoped. So we've got the next 6 years to really find out.
The more I think about this, the more my FA wish list would be… 1) Draymond Green - Can’t think of any Veteran better equipped to teach winning, ball movement, defense, lifestyle and have less of a **** to give about 20yo’s swaggy NBA rock star’s sensibilities 2) Fred Van Vleet/Patrick Beverly - We need a PG/playmaker, then most of Draymond would bring 3) Brook Lopez - Winner/Vet, size/shooting; 4) One of Austin Reaves/Cam Johnson - Less “veteran” and more talent/role-wise This would be the order I’d prioritize them. What this team needs most now is experience, coaching, guidance and development. A locker room mentality overhaul. No more blind (young) leading the blind (young).
Houston fans need to be patient. Recognize each phase takes a few years. Let's build this thing right.
In a way our 2017-2018 swag championships were also home grown, while we didn't draft Harden he pretty much became the super star in Houston. Three years after he was traded here, Harden was leading us to being swag champs and I'm still very proud.
And that was Harden’s age 28 season, his ninth year in the NBA. And of course, he was battling against those damned Warriors all during his 6th/7th/8th, ages 25/26/27 years.
It will be kind of fascinating to track how many of these names are still on the backs of Rockets jerseys when they are 25-28 years old… Porter Jr. Eason Green Sengun Smith Jr. Thompson Whitmore I don’t even know if these names will be to start the 23-24 season… Garuba Christopher Washington Martin Jr. Tate Out of those first seven, where would you set the Over/Under? 4.5? 3.5?
I think the problem is we don't have the ultra-high end talent -- superstar talent -- that a championship caliber team requires. We don't have the Steph Curry or Tim Duncan or Michael Jordan pieces using the OP's examples. In the NBA, an abundance of B+ level players (when they develop) does not make up for the absence of an A+ level player.
Did you know Steph Curry would be that in his sophomore season? Hell did you know MJ would be that when he was 19-20 years old in UNC? We don't have a Luka or Lebron level talent because at that level of talent, they produce at 19-21 so we would know by now. But do we have Tatum and Booker level potential talent on this team? Absolutely.
Well, as you're looking at the Rockets talent you also have to look at the following teams and their trajectories: OKC Detroit Orlando San Antonio All 5 are going through a complete rebuild process. San Antonio may have the biggest head start with the Wemby pick. Still don't know what will come from Chet but OKC looks even better on paper than last year. Detroit got more talent and I like their core of Cunningham, Ivey and Duren to now pair with Thompson. What I think would be cool is if all 5 teams built from the draft and competed long term and built real rivalries where the teams knew each other so well that the games were ultra intense like back in the 90's.
Rebuilds don’t happen in a few years. If things go well and our guys turn into good-great players we’ll need to hit around their prime ages to be contending. Ideally Sengun and JG will be around age 26-27. There’s also the potential issue of us having so much youth on the roster as we can only retain so many.
Imagine Phi Slamma Jamma at the Pro level. Your new Houston Rockets! They may not make a shot farther than ten feet, but they will be running up and down the floor like track stars.
Especially because based on the past 3 seasons it seems like the front office looks at clutchfans and makes decisions based on it.
