There have been some concerns over Cam Whitmore's medicals, which could cause a few teams to pass in the mid-lottery, per sources. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10080062-brs-final-2023-nba-mock-draft-full-2-round-predictions
My bad on the combine. Amen clearly meet both 1&2 of your statement. No. 3 everybody has questions about. The Rockets would be fools to not take Amen if they hold onto the pick and Scoot and Miller are gone. Scoot is really the only one in this draft, in my opinion, that is a slam dunk for stardom and that includes Wemby.
i'll take whitmore at 10. (trade with dallas). Amen + Whitmore + FA PG + FA Tall Shooter is a nice off-season.
This article covers all of what concerns me about the twins. I may be giving Dean's opinion too much weight, but does this argument not make sense to you? https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/are-the-thompson-twins-going-to-bust I think the top disagreement on the twins is founded in their stats. I find them worthless because of the level of competition. I think they tell us nothing. I don't think Amen and Ausar will be bad. I don't think they'll be all-stars. I just don't know at all because they're so unknown.
Fair enough. I thought it read like a sentence if you ignore the numbers, but I can imagine them also being confusing. The athleticism concern is only that there have been so many workout legends who fail in the NBA. That said, a lot of those busts were big men or had size limitations. Amen and Ausar don't fit that bust profile. So maybe they really are top 5 athletes in the NBA. But I'm not convinced by workouts when I haven't seen the athleticism against real competition. There are some important aspects of athleticism (like "soft athleticism" as discussed by Ben Taylor) that can only be seen in real games. So ultimately it comes down to me only seeing reports of good workouts and two big red flags (age, shooting) and so I'm skeptical about them. You clearly disagree, but does this at least make some sense as a position?
Yup. I only know what scouts have said and what the stats say. There's only one prospect in this draft about whom I have no questions (except injury risk) and we're not getting him. I have big questions about Black; it seems quite possible that he's Lonzo Ball, which would be pretty disappointing as a fourth-overall pick. However, all the statistical models say he's near the top so maybe Lonzo is his floor? Don't know. And didn't know about his shooting regression. I just assume his shot is terrible and hope they can rebuild it—but I don't have an opinion on it yet. Gotta go look at some scouting videos. But at least being one year younger than the twins gives me more hope for his shot than for the twins.
All good and agree with what you're saying, we both got a bit heated on our exchange. It just seemed a bit confusing to me when you're for example touting Black as your favourite prospect, who I think many would say doesn't have a lot of strengths over Amen (especially when you consider how Black regressed all season with his jumper and is shooting worse than in HS too). I get that level of competition is important to a degree, but that doesn't automatically make Black a better prospect when he hasn't shown a lot of stuff that makes him seem more developed than the Thompson twins.
I've been a huge Anthony Black fan for... 48 hours? Duncan thinks he's a wing with limited upside and Hollinger thinks he has Kidd upside. But I don't really have an opinion—which is why I lean on stats. Last year I broke my normal routine and watched scouting videos of our future pick Paolo and got excited. And then... So no disappointment this year. I'm going to watch nothing and then I'll be a big fan of whomever the Rockets pick—yes, certainly Amen if that's how it goes.
He’ll go number 4 to our Rockets. Only way that doesn’t happen is if the medical concerns pop up. That came out of left field but freaks teams out.
He’ll go number 4 to our Rockets. Only way that doesn’t happen is if the medical concerns pop up. That came out of left field but freaks teams out.
I read it like the others did, though I admit to quickly skimming over it and not really putting much effort into processing it (after all, I didn't even care to respond to the specifics). It seems there was a misunderstanding in the point you were making, but I think has has been clarified. I'm still trying to read everything in this thread, but think I saw that was the case. To be clear, of that original list, I'd assume we'd mostly be debating #3 and #4. Maybe others have already done so. Honestly, I don't really care to, at least in the specific case of Amen (maybe there's an interesting generalized discussion about those points that could be had?). It will likely just become a stat fight, where people argue about what stats are more important, why other players did/didn't have as good stats, how good are guys in OTE vs college, and whether the Adelaide 36ers were actually trying to play hard. I'm not sure it is worth going down that path. What I'd say is that, in the case of Amen, I personally think he's fine with all 4 of those criteria. Sure, I'd like more, but I'd like more from all prospects (i.e., if Scoot at least put up Nix numbers in the G League, we wouldn't have so many people claiming Scoot is worse than Nix). Others can disagree, and that's fine. Though I might add if someone thinks Amen is not a prospect worthy of a high grade, they're probably in the (small?) minority (relative to draft experts and presumably NBA front offices). ...OK now I'll read more of the thread, which might make some of this moot. It is 100% correct that the twins didn't do any public tests/measurements at the NBA combine except for just the measurement stuff (which Scoot, Miller, Lively, etc., didn't even do). They do have some combine-ish numbers from the OTE combines they've done previously. People can tout those numbers or doubt them (haha OTE), but they are there...somewhere. Honestly, I don't really care about any numbers except the measurements, and even those are just somewhat interesting. I saw those combine numbers, and I don't even remember them. OK, so I admit to not really knowing much about this Dean guy. I'm mostly a Vecenie and Spinella guy, though I try to listen to some others too (KOC, Barlowe, No Ceilings, etc.). Maybe he has a good track record with this stuff, and I'm happy to keep his name in my head so I can read/listen to what he has to say. More perspectives are always good, especially if they bring about ideas few others are bringing up. That said: What the hell is this? Is this supposed to make me think highly of this guy? First off, he's wrong. The twins would be college freshmen. Just like Brandon Miller, who is older than them. 2nd...yeah, you should probably watch some tape instead of flatly ignoring it if you want to call yourself an NBA draft analyst or something similar (I assume he claims something of that sort). You can say you *did* watch it it, and it was useless, but to proudly claim you ignored it because...I guess that makes you...cool? That's not a good take in my book. I skimmed through the rest of his article, and I'll admit there are good points he brings up. But these are also points that could be addressed by spending a bit more time to assess exactly what is going on....including maybe watching some tape. I like some of his stat stuff, but think he's likely focusing in on things just to prove some overall conclusion he wants to get to. I think he's vastly overrating the average college basketball team (and thus underrating OTE, which I think has teams roughly on par with the lesser college teams), and due to that, he's letting some of this stuff cloud some overall opinions he wants to make. Maybe he's right. But he does seem to be in the minority here (especially if he's flat out saying do *not* even draft them at all).
That quote honestly disqualifies the guy from ever writing or analysing any athlete again, watching a player will tell you so much even outside of the competition he's playing against. Things like feel for the game or analysing the floor, body movement and how you alter your shots depending on having physical contact against a defender in the air etc translate to every level and tell you a lot about the upside of a player.
OK so this is probably not worth our time, but whatever, I'm honestly just curious about something. I *get* you don't think he has a slow release. That's fine. FWIW, I don't even really have a personal opinion. Largely because I'm not a shooting expert (especially for judging NBA stuff), and largely because...I don't really care if his shot is slow or not slow (especially since he's young enough to work on it). But like...*how*...*how* do you not even *doubt* yourself just a little bit when all these experts are saying the opposite? Like Vecenie wrote a 150 page draft guide on every notable prospect, and it seems The Athletic likes his stuff. Similar things can be said for others. These are guys that probably put 2000+ hours into this stuff every year (and get PAID for it). If you're that confident in your ability to assess this stuff, please start up your own draft analysis company. Or at least do a substack. Quit wasting your time here and get some money. Get the Rockets to hire you (like the current director of scouting). Leak details to our CF insiders. Etc. I'm not even trying to be hostile or anything like that either. I'm just legit curious.
There are no credible experts that have an issue with his shot. In fact his shot is praised widely. Which they should bc the fundamentals and mechanics are all on point. Especially for a 18 year old. Just bc you post random YouTube vids of nobodies doesn’t make them experts.
Sam Vecenie is a nobody? (plus the guys he closely associates with?) I mean...you can think that. But again...stop what you're doing here, and go tell The Athletic to hire you instead. You can do their 2024 draft guide. Or go join a competitor. Seriously.
