If you watch the vid from his Portland workout, his form looks different. He's still got an amateurish shoulder drop. But he is lining up straight using one hand and bending his knees before shooting, as opposed to that flat footed chest shot in the earlier videos.
Spoiler https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/in...ions-best-prospects-most-overrated-underrated The 2023 NBA draft class could be a historic set of players, according to ESPN Analytics' NBA draft projections. Nine players have at least a 30% chance to become an All-Star-caliber player, the most since our projections debuted in 2015. The NBA draft model forecasts a range of outcomes for players entering the league. A full breakdown of the methodology can be found at the end of this story. The abridged version is that the model is a combination of five individual ones based on the following: •NCAA production •International production •ESPN draft expert rankings •AAU statistics •NBA combine measurements The overall model can be used to probabilistically determine the future performance of prospects about to enter the NBA. Victor Wembanyama | PF | Metropolitans 92 Wembanyama is the clear No. 1 in this year's draft, with a 55% chance to be an All-Star-caliber player. He has the third-highest odds since 2015, trailing Zion Williamson's (59%) and Cade Cunningham (58%). Wembanyama's average predicted real plus-minus in his fourth season is 1.2, also third since 2015. Despite that, our model may be underrating a prospect who stands at a reported 7-foot-5 with an 8-foot wingspan. He's the No. 1-ranked international prospect in the model's history. Here are a few of his rankings among international prospects since 2015 in opponent-adjusted stats: •No. 10 in 3-point FGs (the next center is No. 68) •No. 2 in block percentage •No. 7 in defensive, No. 10 in offensive and No. 7 in total rebounding percentage •No. 12 in turnover percentage •No. 2 in box plus-minus (a box score-based metric estimating a player's contribution when on the court) The NBA draft model also produces comparisons for each prospect based on their projections, position, height, weight and age. Wembanyama's top three comps: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant and Karl-Anthony Towns. Other top prospects After Wembanyama, the model sees a clear next tier of prospects: G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson, Houston power forward Jarace Walker and Alabama small forward Brandon Miller. Henderson ranks No. 2 in the model's projections with a 40% chance to be an All-Star-caliber player and an average predicted RPM of 0.3. Walker is No. 3 at 39% and 0.2, and Miller is next at 37% and 0.1. Despite landing behind Wembanyama in this year's draft, Henderson's projections put him on the same level as previous No. 1 overall prospects such as Minnesota's Anthony Edwards (41% chance to be an All-Star, 0.3 predicted RPM). In short, the model doesn't think the Hornets should pass on their chance to draft Henderson. Walker, currently No. 5 in Jonathan Givony's latest mock draft, could be a steal at any of his projected landing spots, whether that's the Detroit Pistons at No. 5, Indiana Pacers at No. 7 or even the Utah Jazz at No. 9. Here are some of his rankings: •No. 1 in the AAU-based model •No. 5 in the NCAA-based model •No. 7 in adjusted block percentage •No. 13 in adjusted offensive rebounding (NCAA) He comes out above average in most advanced stats considered by the model, and rates as an elite shot-blocker and rebounder, one of the most stable metrics for projecting NBA prospects. Miller is ranked No. 2 in our scout rankings and is currently projected second in ESPN's latest mock draft but falls to fourth in our model's projections. Miller actually beats out Walker in our NCAA-based model, ranking third overall, but falls short in his AAU production, ranking No. 15. He tends to foul at a high rate and has a below-average steal percentage, but in every other metric, he performs extremely well. He rebounds and blocks at a high level for a wing, and his true shooting percentage and turnover rate are both fantastic, especially when accounting for his high usage rate. The next tier The next five prospects each have a better than 30% chance to be All-Star caliber. Based on their average predicted RPM, the model has them ordered: UCF PF Taylor Hendricks, Overtime Elite guards Ausar Thompson and Amen Thompson, Villanova SF Cam Whitmore (SF, Villanova) and Arkansas SG Anthony Black. Hendricks lands at No. 5 in the model's rankings despite currently going No. 7 in Givony's mock draft. He was the best-performing prospect in our NCAA-based model, which pushes him just ahead of the Thompson twins. He also performed well in his AAU appearances, ranking No. 16 overall in that model's projections. He has a higher chance of being at least a starter-level player than any other prospect except Wembanyama. However, both Thompsons and Whitmore surpass Hendricks when looking at their chances to be an All-Star-caliber player. The model sees Hendricks as a player whose skills are likely to translate but who has a slightly lower upside, while the Thompsons and Whitmore have a higher upside with a lower floor. Amen and Ausar Thompson are in a virtual tie at No. 6 overall. Here are their rankings in the three individual models they have data for, respectively: •Givony's rankings: No. 4 and No. 6 •Combine measurements: No. 27 and No. 34 •AAU-based model: No. 61 and No. 55 Ausar has a slightly better chance at being a starter-level player or better, while Amen has a better shot at being All-Star caliber. Underrated prospects Who could be this draft's Nikola Jokic or Jimmy Butler? The 2022-23 All-NBA teams featured 14 first-round picks, 12 of whom went in the lottery. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Butler were the non-lottery picks, and Jokic was the lone second-rounder. Some candidates who could outperform their selection this year include Alabama PF Noah Clowney and Ohio St. SF Brice Sensabaugh. Clowney is currently No. 21 in ESPN's mock draft but is 10th in our model's projections. His ranking is a product of his performance at Alabama, which pushed him to sixth in our NCAA-based model. He is a high-level rebounder and shot-blocker and would probably be even higher if not for a poor ranking in the AAU-based model, where he's No. 77 out of 81 prospects. Sensabaugh is projected No. 31 in ESPN's mock draft despite ranking No. 14 overall in our model. His No. 7 ranking in our NCAA-based model and his above-average play during the Nike EYBL circuit in 2021 buoyed him up to his current spot. He's second overall in usage percentage among college prospects and ranks No. 32 in the AAU-based model. Also: Michigan SG Jett Howard (18th in the mock draft, 13th in the model), TCU PG Mike Miles Jr. (unselected vs. 41st) Overrated prospects Wembanyama's Metropolitans 92 teammate Bilal Coulibaly has received a huge amount of attention over the past few months and has rocketed up draft boards as scouts have watched him play alongside the projected No. 1 pick. He's currently going No. 16 in our mock draft, but our model ranks him No. 24 based on his production. His projections have a high amount of variance due to the large difference between his rankings from draft experts and his relatively low international production. He ranks just eighth in our international model. This gives him a 17% chance to be an All-Star caliber player (No. 14), but just a 64% chance to be a starter or better (No. 24). Also: Iowa PF Kris Murray (No 24 in the mock, No. 40 in the model), New Zealand Breakers SG Rayan Rupert (No. 23 in the mock, No. 28 in the model). Methodology At ESPN Analytics, we combine our draft experts' scouting grades with four other statistical models to get an average projection for each player over his first contract. We seek to project a predictive version of our RPM metric for each player at the end of his fourth season and obtain a probability that the player will reach the level of play of an All-Star, starter, bench player or non-NBA player in that time period. The five individual models that are aggregated to achieve the final projections are based on NCAA production, AAU stats, international play, combine measurements and scout rankings. Some notes on the information used: • Scout rankings are based on ESPN draft experts' rankings. • The NCAA and AAU models considered opponent-adjusted per-possession box-score statistics and composite statistics, such as individual rating and win shares. • International statistics include similar box-score metrics and adjust for the strength of the league. • The combine model is based on body measurements, such as height, weight, wingspan and body fat percentage relative to position. For each player, all relevant categories are considered if available.
I keep thinking that too…then I look at the Vegas odds for Miller at #4 and see that a bet of $100 pays $1900. So that makes me think no way. Plus the credible Clutchfans insiders are saying no way Miller or Scoot drop. So I’m fairly certain Amen will be there. I really want to trade up for Scoot.
That also means future All Star reserve selections will be more competitive than ever.................I foresee a lot of players who don't make it.
I would be happy with that, but have seen literally nothing to indicate that is a realistic possibility. What have you seen?
A few things... 1) Constant Amen hype. Probably a lot of it coming from the Rockets but athleticism and playmaking always rises in the draft (Paolo last year) 2) Everybody wants to trade into the Top 3 for Scoot but nobody seems to want to trade up for Miller as their target? 3) Assuming Charlotte takes Scoot which is who Portland seems to want, I could see Portland pivoting to a similar player in Amen (athletic playmaking guard) vs. Miller Not a guarantee, I'm just bracing myself for the possibility.
People got burned by Banchero last year, now they’re carrying that over. Everyone talked themselves into PB or were convinced he was going to be a Rocket and then when the Magic took him… They like or are talking themselves into Amen and are now afraid he’ll be gone. “Too good to be true! Someone’s gonna take him!” Don’t see it happening (Scoot or Miller falling) but would Miller really be the worse thing? “I’m bracing myself for Miller” … LOL OK and ? Is that supposed to be a bad thing? Unless you think the guy is going to prison, then OK So we went from a one-player draft(Wemby) to a two-player draft(Wemby/Scoot—“Scoot would go #1 in any other draft.”) to a three-player draft (Miller now on par with Henderson; maybe Henderson falling back to the pack) to talking ourselves into it being a four-player draft. (“Rockets don’t see a big gap between Miller/Henderson and Thompson”; posters now afraid Thompson will be gone.)
I for one never thought it was a one, two, or three player draft, and always liked Amen better than Miller as the third-best in this class. However, I have softened a bit on Miller after spending a little more time studying his game, and I do have him in the same tier as Amen. (Much safer, but less upside.) I won't be upset whichever of the two we end up with, although I will say I'm still not happy about the off-the-court issues with Miller and I see them as yellow flags about his intangibles. I also think Amen is a better fit, which can be a tiebreaker with them being in the same tier. We need a primary ballhandler/playmaker type to tie this roster together. That may end up being Sengun, but having Amen waiting in the wings if that doesn't work out is a good backup plan.
Amen going top 3 has always been a joke. The odds support that but cf’s go through their mental hoops to act like he’s top 3 with that 4th pick syndrome. None of those 3 teams are taking a broken hitch jump shot before any of those elite 3 prospects
The Rockets have looked into it, but the cost is very high for the #2 pick. Right now I would say that the #2 pick is worth at least twice what the #4 pick is worth, and if you put a gun to my head I would say almost three times as much. Not every team is super high on Henderson, but the teams that are, like the Pelicans, Raptors, Spurs and CAVS, value him very highly. That is why, if Henderson slips to #3, we will likely see the Pelicans or Raptors trade with the Blazers to get him. There are also a handful of teams very high on Thompson, but they are primarily teams without the assets to trade up for him (Warriors, Suns and Chicago). Don't be shocked if OKC finds a way to move up in this draft.
There are a group of teams that are very high on Amen and would take him in the top 3, but I agree with you that it is very unlikely that Amen goes in the top 3. The #1 pick is already a known player, and we know Scoot will go in the top 3. Most likely the #3 pick will be traded and the team getting it, will likely want whoever falls out of Henderson/Miller.
The group of teams that are “high” on him are teams that are in no position to get the top 3. Of course they’re going to convince themselves of that gimmick nonsense. All credible reports have portland don’t trading their pick and all include either taking Miller or scoot. With the 4th pick syndrome, Only random cf’s with their silly theories and sauces try to include amen in their
There's only 2 elite prospects in this draft. Then a role player/fringe all star in Miller and a boom/bust playmaker in Amen Thompson. Anyone that really thinks Brandon Miller is in the same tier as Wemby and Scoot is deluding themselves.
When it’s consistently been reported as a 3 person draft, I’ll take that more into account than random cf’s posters with the 4 pick syndrome. It’s funny cause folks like you try to downplay Miller when he’s more consistently projected going before scoot. More mental hoops. Plus coming from someone who just recently claimed kpj would be jalen Brunson, well that’s pretty much your level of takes
Missed this from last month… Hollinger TIER III: The mystery meat(s) 6. Amen Thompson, 20, 6-7 SF, Overtime Elite Welcome to the hardest evaluation in the draft. Amen Thompson and his twin brother (see below) have spent the least two years at Overtime Elite, a new program that doesn’t provide us with much of a historical gauge for what type of success will translate to the NBA. The Thompsons are also relatively old for one-and-dones; Amen will be 20.5 years old on draft night, while his twin brother will be (checks notes) 20.5 also. Most of the players the Thompsons are competing against are at least a year younger; many are two or even three years younger. That they dominate the games in this program, or played against other major high school teams, doesn’t really say much. (The matchup everyone wants, that will never ever happen, is to have Overtime Elite play against Ignite.) There is a fair argument to be made that they should be dominating more, actually. Overtime Elite played one real game against another professional team, versus the Adelaide 36ers of the Australian NBL in October. They lost, but Amen was the best player on the floor with 17 points, eight rebounds and five assists. Fortunately, the eye test makes it easy to take the plunge here. Amen is 6-7, can handle the ball, jumps out of the gym and sees the floor. This is the exact thing every team in the league is moving heaven and earth to acquire: elite athletes with size who can handle and pass. There are nits to pick with Thompson’s need for two-foot takeoffs, his gambling on defense and his lack of a pull-up game. But the biggest issue, by far, is his shot. It was a question when he get to Overtime, and in two years, it hasn’t really improved much. If you think Henderson is going to get “undered,” wait till you see how teams treat this guy. He could just be a 6-7 Rajon Rondo on offense. The fact that he’s been in this program for two years without material improvement in the shooting is troubling too; there’s a chance he’s just Stacey Augmon. On the other hand, if a team can work with Amen and get his shot anywhere near proficient, he’s the on-ball go-to guy every team craves. At this point in the draft, with no sure things or even quasi-sure things left on the perimeter, it’s worth rolling the dice. 7. Ausar Thompson, 20, 6-7 SF, Overtime Elite A lot of what applies to Amen Thompson also applies to his twin brother, Ausar. Among the two, Ausar is generally considered the less athletic prospect, but we’re splitting hairs. Statistically, it’s hard to tell the two apart in most areas, to the point that you half-wondered if the scorekeepers randomly assigned stats to alternating Thompsons. Their playing styles are similar as well. The one difference is that Ausar played off the ball more at Overtime, but that distinction is likely to disappear when he’s not on the same team as his brother. Unfortunately, the similarities include the shooting part, which is just as big a question for Ausar as it is for Amen. When I went to Overtime Elite pro day this fall, it seemed that Amen was slightly further along, but you’d have a tough time proving that from their in-season percentages. Let’s just say neither of them will have panicked defenders flying into the seats on closeouts. I’ve seen draft boards with several spots separating these two players, but I have a hard time getting there, especially given the gap between here and the next tier. In fact, the sharp move may be to trade down and take Ausar knowing you’re likely getting 99 percent of Amen.
