Sweet. We're at that time of the draft season where Houston is connected to every possible scenario possible. You know the end is nigh.
Rockets would never leak how much they love Amen as if it's a lock he's there. It's clear they want one of Scoot or Miller to drop to them,
Rumors are coming out in Portland that if Charlotte draft Scoot, Portland is going to draft Amen because he has higher upside than Brandon Miller……and people are saying Brandon Miller will drop in the draft……we need Amen, Cam might eat his way out of the NBA. If there is no Amen…..
Rumors are coming out from Portland that if Charlotte draft Scoot, Portland is going to draft Amen because he has higher upside than Brandon Miller……and people are saying Brandon Miller will drop in the draft……we need Amen, Cam might eat his way out of the NBA. If there is no Amen…..
I remember you pointing this out before I think. It's certainly a bit odd, but surely you should just chalk it up to people having different body types? Like neck size/etc? Seth Lundy is shorter (6'4.0") with a 6'10.25" wingspan, yet his reach is 8'8" (and you can probably find other oddities like Prosper, Julian Phillips, etc.). If this was a private measurement, I'd maybe buy it. But I'm not sure why the NBA combine folks would fake this. If they're faking this, you might as well not believe any of the numbers. Regardless, I'm not sure the specific numbers matter that much, especially if we're just talking about an inch or so. Amen and Ausar seem pretty good at collecting blocks and steals, and I'm guessing whatever wingspan they have helps with that. That's likely more important than a specific measurement. I'm not sure why his FG should have been much higher? 63% on 2s seems pretty damn good. I guess yeah it would be nice if he was at 70-80%, but that seems a bit unrealistic, especially for a guard. Also, not sure this really matters, but I think the OTE competition was better the 2nd year (I *think* your data set includes all the Euro tour games for the 2nd year too). I'm not sure if this happened in the first OTE year, but teams definitely started sagging off and packing the paint in year 2. Pretty sure Amen was the PG, though they certainly both handled those playmaking duties. I mostly watched the playoffs, but I picked a random regular season game, and Amen seemed to be the one bringing the ball up the court on dead balls (e.g., change of quarters). Ausar was the MVP for both years though, yes. Ausar and Amen didn't play together their first year. I didn't pay super close attention, but I think they were both the primary playmakers for their teams (though there might have been a decent PG or 2 on either team, not sure). I think they put Amen at PG...because he's a better PG than Ausar (and Ausar is a better wing). It is just that simple IMO. Don't have much issue with the rest of what you said or the main point (i.e., Amen is risky). I do think his athleticism is legit, but we'll have to wait and see how he uses it against NBA competition. Maybe it won't translate, especially if he has issues dealing with defensive pressure.
FWIW, I still think some of the biggest FG efficiency problems with Westbrook and even Wall is not so much that they sucked at 3s, but that they took *so* many inefficient mid range shots. Like there was a year that Wall shot 37% from 3 on 4+ a game (note this is a ~55% eFG% if I did the math right), and he was also ~64% at the rim I believe. Yet he had a EFG% of 46.6% overall. Why? Because he took a ton of long distance mid-range shots, and he sucked at them (<30%). Westbrook did/does this too. Maybe Amen will too? Though I'd like to hope that he would just...not take them (especially not at a huge volume). I generally have 30% from 3pt as the minimum target for Amen to not be a huge liability. And he might not even hit that, and that will be *very* bad for him if so. But If teams dare him to take that shot, he's not afraid to take them (ala Simmons), and he can hit them at 30% (~0.9 PPS and eFG% of 45% I guess?), that seems...decent-ish. Especially if treated as a last resort. For reference, a Jimmy Butler mid-range shot in the playoffs this past year was converted at 42.5%. An Amen 3pt would essentially produce more points than a Butler mid-range shot in that scenario, assuming I did the math right. Now maybe Amen is unplayable in that last possession when you're down 2 or something along those lines (this is where FG% matters more than PPS/eFG%), but being playable for 47 minutes a game is better than being playable 0 minutes a game. None of this is ideal, but as I pointed out...somewhere...you *can* build around a player like this, just like you can build around a center who can't protect the rim or switch effectively on defense. The margin for success might be smaller than you'd like (Amen would have to be ELITE at every other aspect of his game *AND* the rest of the team would need to make up for his lack of shooting), but I don't think this type of situation is a deal breaker all by itself. IMO, if you *do* think he's likely to be elite in these other areas, then roll the dice and see what happens. If people want to claim he's a terrible defender, an overrated playmaker, etc., then those are fair arguments too. But I just wanted to push back on the idea that none of that matters if he can't shoot something like 35%+ from 3pt.
Who knows what is real and what isn't. But if you follow RocketsWatch and what people have said there...it should be no surprise that the Rockets think very highly of Amen (and this was all said long before we got the lotto results and workouts). I legitimately think they like him more than me, and I'm probably one of the biggest Amen fans on here. I would 100% take Scoot over Amen. I'm not 100% sure the Rockets would agree with me though.
The Rockets really wanted Bancheros last year, and was telling everybody who would listen. They really want Amen but I do not trust Portland they like Amen as well.
I see Brandon Miller falling like Jabari. He also plays like Jabari. rockets forced to draft someone they don’t want once again.
As I was writing a reply a thought came to my head. Evaluating Amen just seems like the equivalent a basketball inkblot test. One of my good friends has the same opinion as you with him and I'm seeing him a totally different way. Either way if we draft him I'll still be rooting for him to improve rapidly.
If we get Amen and neither him or Sengun learns how to reliably hit a jump shot, one of them will end up being moved or leaving.
Amen really does intrigue me . And I wouldn’t be devastated if we took him at 4 I think he’s got to have the most things break his way tho out of his tier (black , Ausar , miller , Walker , Hendricks, whitmore ) most of this players have the age advantage and / or the skills advantage. I’m not so sold on Amens handle and passing skill set as being nba ready … especially and I mean especially without another scoring option besides (get to the rim) I think you have to play him as a primary ball handler . Is he good enough in any other role to be a starting quality player ? can he be a cutting wing ? That really hounds people on defense ? idk if he will be any better than jalen green was off ball … and it’s taken time for green to get where he is , which is nowhere great . amen is older , which means he’s more physically ready for the nba … but also means he’s got less filling out to do . he is a pretty good fit with our current young guys , but I think if they viewed the others as safer bets I’d go with that
Amen really does intrigue me . And I wouldn’t be devastated if we took him at 4 I think he’s got to have the most things break his way tho out of his tier (black , Ausar , miller , Walker , Hendricks, whitmore ) most of this players have the age advantage and / or the skills advantage. I’m not so sold on Amens handle and passing skill set as being nba ready … especially and I mean especially without another scoring option besides (get to the rim) I think you have to play him as a primary ball handler . Is he good enough in any other role to be a starting quality player ? can he be a cutting wing ? That really hounds people on defense ? idk if he will be any better than jalen green was off ball … and it’s taken time for green to get where he is , which is nowhere great . amen is older , which means he’s more physically ready for the nba … but also means he’s got less filling out to do . he is a pretty good fit with our current young guys , but I think if they viewed the others as safer bets I’d go with that
From my perspective there is a real chance that Amen never becomes an average shooter and is a bust… that’s a real possibility. However if he does learn to shoot, he will very likely be a star with a chance at being a superstar. So let’s say there is 1:3 chance he learns to shoot - that is a 1:3 chance of getting a star with the #4 pick. If you take it a step further and look at the history of 4th picks, those odds are not bad. To me as a Rockets fan, I will take those odds because the payoff os huge. I want to compete for championships and not just getting into the playoffs. I agree with Sam Vecenie- if Amen learns to shoot 30% on 3’s or 40% on 12 footers - the Rockets likely have the most explosive and best backcourt in 3 years.
To all those saying "we need shooters", here is your answer: Spoiler James Harden Kristaps Porzingis Fred VanVleet Khris Middleton Jerami Grant Nikola Vucevic Brook Lopez Austin Reaves Cameron Johnson Gary Trent Jr Harrison Barnes Bruce Brown Josh Hart Naz Reid PJ Washington Donte DiVincenzo Gabe Vincent Caris LeVert Max Strus Grant Williams Malik Beasley Lonnie Walker Coby White Seth Curry Alec Burks Georges Niang Josh Richardson Jevon Carter Shake Milton Joe Ingles Damion Lee Troy Brown ...(and more) You don't draft for need or fit, especially in the top 5. The draft isn't for that--at most it's a tiebreaker between two same-tier prospects. You take the best player available. Free agency is for filling needs, and the good news is we have around $60 million in cap space. We can and will go spend it.
So what are the chances he becomes a super athletic role player.......seems he is at either one end of the extremes. A more athletic and better playing Fultz.
