The Denver Nuggets rebuild model…

Another non LTS team wins the title. shocking

 

Lesson learned! I hope.

 

The model has been readily apparent for a decade.

 

There is no model.

What about the “Heat model”? A top 20 player with a bunch of undrafted guys? Obviously haven’t won it yet but 2 Finals appearances in the last 4 years.

Or the “Bucks model”? This is where @hakeem94 tells us Giannis was the 15th pick and we don’t need to tank/a top pick.

Or the “Warriors model”? Just assemble two of the best shooters and slip the refs some side money so you can get away with illegal screens (for said shooters), eye gouges, nut kicks and dirty plays!

Or the “Raptors model”? Rent-a-star for one season, win a championship!

Nuggets model?
From the guy who may or may not be chasing Kyrie Irving and James Harden?
From the guy who said “My basketball ops got weak and I said we’re doing this deal. You always keep it exciting.”
Probably would’ve kept Nurkic over Jokic and traded Murray when he got hurt. “Worst contract I’ve ever seen!”

 

I said he played at a near superstar level. Go look up any of his numbers. His efficiency was elite.

 

That’s rookie vs sophomore. I said 2nd year jokic when he put up a 26 per and a 116 TS+. Those are superstar numbers. Nearly 10 win shares, over a 7 bpm. Sengun 2nd year was 3% above league average compared to jokic 16%

 

What?

 

Inside the seven-year journey to construct the 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets

AFTER AN EARLY November 2017 home game -- with the revamped Denver Nuggets hovering at .500 -- I sat down for food and drinks with several members of the team's brain trust.

Calvin Booth, then the team's assistant general manager and the newest member of Denver's front office, posed a question: If you could have one for the next decade, who would you pick among Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis?

Jokic by that point had finished third in Rookie of the Year (behind Towns and Porzingis) and started more than 100 games -- dozens of which came alongside fellow center Jusuf Nurkic before Jokic once and for all won the starting spot solo on Dec. 15, 2016, a day now known within the team and around the city as "Jokmas."

Less than two months after Jokmas, the Nuggets traded Nurkic and a first-round pick to the Portland Trail Blazers for Mason Plumlee. In a critical late March game that season with the No. 8 seed potentially at stake, Nurkic lit up the Nuggets with 33 points and 16 rebounds -- and crowed afterward. "They know definitely what they're missing," Nurkic told reporters. "I wish those guys a happy summer."

The Nuggets missed the playoffs, and for some in the organization, it was the first moment they began to wonder if Tim Connelly, then the team's head of basketball operations, would move on from his fiery head coach Michael Malone. Connelly stuck by Malone, trusting Malone's feel for how hard he could coach the team and its young star -- and in Malone's commitment to building a defense that would one day be good enough to win the title.

That offseason, the Nuggets snared Paul Millsap away from the Atlanta Hawks in free agency, selling Millsap on his importance as a centerpiece in that defensive reconstruction.

Ten games into that 2017-18 season, as Booth posed his question, the defense was better but the offense was clunky as the Nuggets incorporated Millsap. Malone that week had threatened to kick Jokic out of a practice after Jokic was slow getting back in transition defense. "I jumped him very vocally," Malone told ESPN then.

Jamal Murray, the team's second-year starting point guard, was in a slump -- skittish, uncertain, passing up open jumpers, scattershot in learning point guard reads after splitting the position the year before with Jameer Nelson. (The Nuggets wanted Murray at No. 7 in the 2016 draft, but had to sweat out the Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings picking in the slots ahead of them; Denver viewed both as Murray threats, sources said. The Bulls took Kris Dunn. Sacramento selected Buddy Hield.)

When I went to interview Murray, I found him shooting alone after practice, searching for his game. "Last year, I had Jameer out there with me, and I was coming off pindowns," he said then. "I'm trying to figure it all out."

(The Nuggets waived Nelson before that 2017-18 season, in part to clear playing time for Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay. They had chances to trade Nelson to at least one noncontender, but Connelly didn't think it was right to send Nelson somewhere he didn't want to be, sources told ESPN then.)

Those were the vibes when Booth polled the table. There was much hemming and hawing. Porzingis' rim protection was intriguing. Towns looked to be an all-time shooter. Everyone was still digesting Jokic's unusual passing: How real was this? How would it translate against elite competition?

Booth stopped the discussion: It was Jokic, he told the group, and it was not going to be close.

THE NUGGETS HAD picked Jokic 41st in 2014 after promising his camp they would do so -- their method of convincing Jokic to keep his name in the draft instead of staying longer in Europe. They liked several other players, including Jordan Clarkson, who went No. 46, but they were thrilled Jokic was still there when No. 41 came up. It was a group decision, but Connelly loved Jokic and had made scouting Europe a bigger priority immediately upon his arrival in Denver.

Even in that up-and-down 2016-17 season, it was clear Jokic's passing had a special catalytic effect. Internally, the Nuggets' win over the Indiana Pacers in London on Jan. 12 is considered something of a watershed. The Pacers entered the game on a five-game winning streak. Denver had lost five straight to drop to 14-23. Jokic piled up 22 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists on 7-of-11 shooting in an emphatic 140-112 Denver win. Murray looked good coming off the bench behind Mudiay.

Six-plus years later, that duo has led the Nuggets to the first title in franchise history after an utterly dominant 16-4 playoff run. Murray and Jokic combined to average almost 60 points per game. The Nuggets walloped opponents by 8.0 points per 100 possessions.

No team has had an answer for Jokic. He has beaten every scheme. He might be both the league's best passer and best low-post scorer. He is an elite midrange shooter, both off the catch and off the dribble. He has hit 41% on 3s in the playoffs. Run him off the arc, and Jokic is an expert on pump-and-go drives. Send a third defender flying at him, and Jokic makes the right pass every time. He is not simply good at these discrete skills. He is great at all of them. Basketball has never seen someone who is great at all those things and also almost 7-feet tall.

In every series, the Nuggets noticed opponents making major adjustments against Jokic -- and the Murray-Jokic two-man game -- by the second half of Game 1. They are playing their cards early became a refrain.

Jokic's problem-solving is the main reason the Nuggets never really quivered in this run. At 2-2 against the Phoenix Suns in the second round, they were calm and confident, according to several within the team. When Jokic picked up his fifth foul early in the 4th quarter in Game 4 of the Finals in Miami, there was no unusual rah-rah speech in the huddle -- no shouting about The Moment, The Stakes, anything. (One huddle moment coaches and staffers remember from that game came earlier, just after the slumping Michael Porter Jr. had missed an open transition 3. "Mikey," Jokic told Porter, according to several sources, "if you get another 3 like that, we need you to shoot it!" It was another example of Jokic embracing an understated leadership role.)

 

…

The Nuggets might have reached the Finals sooner had Murray not torn his ACL in April 2021. Malone has told the story about how Murray worried in the wake of that injury the Nuggets might trade him. That was never happening. If they were ever going to entertain trading Murray -- and they never really did -- it would have been in 2017 or 2018. Malone has said recently that Connelly approached him around that time indicating they could possibly trade Murray for a certain marquee veteran or veterans.

Among those players was Kyrie Irving after he requested a trade from the Cavaliers in the summer of 2017, sources have said. The Nuggets were adamantly against it. They never stopped believing Murray could develop into a star -- the perfect point guard next to Jokic. "We've had a lot of excellent players offered to us for our young talent," Connelly told me in the fall of 2017. "There's a fine line between overvaluing your own players and being too aggressive chasing short-term results."

He saw no dissonance between signing Millsap, then 32, and continuing to build around two potential cornerstones in their early 20s. "It doesn't have to be all one way, or all the other," Connelly said then.

…

Over Murray's two-postseason absence, the Nuggets tweaked the roster around their two stars. In perhaps their biggest team-building slip-up, Denver in the 2017 draft traded down from No. 13 -- the pick that became Donovan Mitchell -- in exchange for Trey Lyles and a late first-rounder it used on Tyler Lydon. In search of versatility, the Nuggets leaned toward big men who might be able to slide to the wing in spurts. They considered selecting O.G. Anunoby, sources said, but he seemed like a reach at No. 13 and was selected by the Raptors one spot ahead of Lydon.

The Nuggets took lessons from that draft. One was that if they were searching for wing versatility and defense, they might do better chasing big guards who could defend up one position instead of bigs who might be able to shift down. Watching the Suns' spread pick-and-roll lay waste to their defense in the second round in 2021 convinced the Nuggets they needed guards skilled at chasing ball handlers around screens. If they could stick closer to ball handlers on the pick-and-roll, Jokic would not be left on an island. Tighter point-of-attack defense might open up schematic versatility -- including at least dabbling in conservative drop-back defenses.

Caldwell-Pope fit that bill. Ditto for Bruce Brown. In the 2022 draft, Booth -- now the top decision-maker and holding the No. 22 pick -- thought about trading up with Washington for No. 10 with an eye on Jalen Williams. (No such deal emerged.) Braun, meanwhile, was projected in the late first round and perhaps even the second. In Braun, Booth saw a 6-7 guard who defended and made activity plays. "We just needed guys that do stuff -- 50-50 balls, offensive rebounds, transition defense," he said.

At the pre-draft combine, Booth watched to see if someone might expose Braun on defense. "He just never got beat," Booth said. As the draft approached, Booth asked his staff: If the Nuggets could land a backend lottery pick and thought Braun was the best guy available, why shouldn't they take him there? "That may have startled the room," Booth said. "But I don't really care where guys are mocked."'

In the end, the Nuggets could not move up and selected Braun at No. 21. Holding No. 30, Booth targeted Peyton Watson -- a 6-8 wing who averaged 3 points in one season at UCLA. But Watson had size and elite defensive instincts. In his private workout for Denver, Watson lost the ball on a dribble move, fell down, got up and sprinted back for a chase-down block. Booth turned to Malone: "That's why he didn't play at UCLA, and that's why he's a first-rounder -- all in one play," Booth told his coach.

He feared the Warriors might take Watson at No. 28; Booth envisioned Watson and Jonathan Kuminga hounding Murray on defense for years. He wondered if the Nuggets should perhaps trade up for Watson. He felt disagreement from corners of the Nuggets leadership. "There was," Booth said, "some trepidation." Watson fell to Denver at No. 30. He didn't play much this year, but coaches, players and staff are optimistic he could seize a big role next season -- especially if Brown leaves in free agency.

…

 

Agree. Maybe I misconstrued what you were saying. I want us to keep our core and add vets in a logical fashion to maximize our chances over the next 2-3 to be competitive for the championship. I don’t want it to take 9 years, like it did Denver. I also don’t want us to go all in on over the hill guys like Harden or pay max for players not worthy of the max. We should be able to add key vet contributors and still save on to enough cap flexibility and draft assets to make a move when the time is right.

 

Yall let me know when Joker got the rebound, Murray wanted the rock, didn't get it, and doesn't even get in the frame of the TV?

 

You don't have to look that far back to see another. Golden State did the same thing. Home grown talent with two elite shooters around a pass first guy in the middle (Draymond in his prime was basically bizarro Jokic. Defensive wizard.) We already have the pieces in place with Jabari/Green/Sengun. Amen would give the Rockets a dimension the Nuggets currently don't have. The movement off of Sengun with Amen/Green and Jabari/another shooter would be ridiculous. I wonder if Hendricks drops to 8-10 could the Rockets trade 20 and a Brooklyn pick to get him.

 

You're forgetting that offense is only 50% of the possessions. There's another 50% that has nothing to do with these stats.

To be an offense-only superstar, you have to be generationally elite. Like Harden for example. Jokic was an efficient offensive player in his second season, but he was not putting up anywhere near the volume of efficient offense needed to make up for his bad defense at the time. His efficiency was a huge function of him only taking 12 shots per game and in the following 3 seasons his efficiency dropped significantly while increasing his FGA.

You can't call that a superstar. An offense-first superstar needs to give you volume AND efficiency. He was more like an All Star in his second season.

 

As long as it means no more ball dominant players, sign me up.

 

Looking at their roster, I don't see a traditional PG in the rotation. The stats show a superstar center with clear 2nd (Murray), 3rd (Gordon), and 2 X-factors (KCP & Brown).

Most of their team statistics are nothing home to write about. They don't steal or block many shots. They turnover the ball quite a bit. They aren't a good rebounding team.

What makes them elite is their high FG% and offensive discipline. They don't take a lot of 3s (25th in attempts per game), but they shoot them at a high enough percentage.

Looking at our roster right now, we can play through Sengun like they do Jokic. Obviously, we need to improve our 3 point shooting, but Green and Jabari are money from mid-range. Would like to see more emphasis on getting back on D than chasing offensive rebounds. With that said, Eason, Jabari, and Sengun tend to get a lot of put back buckets. Rather than dribbling so much, we can use ball movement with Green and KPJ to help them beat their man and get to the rim.

 

We have to stick to the plan and treat our young core like we believe they can reach their highest potential. This Nuggets championship was a great omen.

We drafted guys who are designed to be lead scorers and lead defenders. Surround them with elite role players. Don't bring in some other guy who is obsessed with being the star. The #4 pick makes our core so promising, there's absolutely no way two stars don't emerge out of it.

Green/Sengun/Jabari should be taking all the shots next season. I'm really glad Stone/Udoka got to watch this and Sengun is a real lucky b*stard because the Nuggets made the case for him.