What's the bar for success for the Rockets 2023-24 Season (Start of Phase 2)

No way we win 40 unless Green goes supernova or Sengun really does become Baby Jokic overnight

35+ would be a good, solid success that slightly outpaces expectations IMO. I'm expecting to bring in a couple of veterans and win 30-33.

 

What is your expectation if Harden comes here?

 

35-37 wins would be my guess. Harden is approximately an 8 win player at this point in his career. Maybe add a couple more if we also pick up a veteran roleplayer, that gets us to 32. Four or five more wins from better coaching & natural improvement of the young core.

 

Success to me does not depend on the number of wins, but on clearing up at the end of the year whether Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are worthy of rookie extensions, and at what number. That is the make-or-break question, and it is a failure to me if they are unable to agree to an extensiom.

Ideally, one or both of them are max-level players, and you're getting a bargain by maxing them out. Alternatively, extenuating circumstances (season ending injury), results in them showing out and fulfilling potential, but allows you to sign them at less than a max (the Steph Curry, the bargain contract that the Warriors' dynasty was built on), and gives you a real chance to add a piece you normally shouldn't be able to.

No extensions means that either you don't know if they're worth it (which is a failure in terms of coaching development and front office strategy), or you've determined they're not worth it or part of the future (which means they're effectively a bust, or need to be used as a trade asset).

This is the risk with bringing in a heliocentric player like Harden; immediate team improvement which muddies the water for these key question. There's a good chance you self-select for the players that fit the best with Harden, rather than determine which of the young players can feasibly take over the leading role as Harden is no longer able to be they guy.

I will gladly take 30 wins next year (the 2021-2022 Sacramento Kings) over making the play-in and getting run out of the gym, if at the end of the year I was confident in having Green/Sengun being a Fox/Sabonis-level talent pair going forward.

 

I think you need to look at the strength of the league and most notably the West first.

First we need to see:

-What happens in Dallas re Kyrie, and what can they do in free agency with exceptions, etc.
-How quickly is Wemby going to be great, and will he draw free agents this year?
-Will Zion finally be healthy?
-What kind of suspension is Ja Morant going to have?
-Is Dame staying in Portland?
-etc.
-etc.

If all of these teams are playoff worthy to contenders, it'll be hard to expect the Rockets to get over the 40's and be a play-in team. Regardless if we sign Harden or not.

If there are shakeups with 2 to 3 key teams in the West that leads them to a rebuilding then I think it's reasonable to expect the Rockets to push 40 wins IF the Rockets are truly signing at least two veterans, and the youngster improve where they should.

If the West has multiple teams bottoming out, the Rockets use their cap space for real players, everyone is healthy-ish, and the Rockets end up with between 25 and 33 wins, I think Stone will need to be let go or moved into another position.

 

Doesn’t matter. Stone sold Tilman on a competitive team next season when he sold him the massive tank job. Stone’s job is now on the hot seat.

 

Sticking to OP's topic. It's more about expectation than projection.

My expectation is > 30+ wins, by hook or by crook, after 3 bad years, it's supposed to be a better team. Be it with different vets or whomever else.

Less to do with how realistic can next season's team will achieve, more to do with what's a passing grade for Stone. It's pivot year, standard is at least 30 wins. By the look of the poll, majority voters here feel the same.


Projection could be higher (or lower), depending on how the roster is actually filled.

 

Beautiful post

 

Which of you crazies is the one who voted 50 wins? Out yourself!

 

Heavily depends on who we sign. If we don't sign anyone major then 30+ wins is good for me. That means you can get to the playoffs the following season with internal growth and minor changes.

 

With Ime, our talented core, a top 4 pick, and 65 million cash….

We better flirt with the play in or someone needs to traded. I’d like at least a season before we really start trading the core though

 

would wait 'til after draft, trades and signings -if there are significant needle movers

 

a healthy Tate is worth 5 wins

 

That was with Tate and Ego.

 

72 wins or the GM and HC are both gone.

 

Last year we were a potential 38-41 wins team. Silas+Nix+KPJ destroyed the franchise.

If we consider 1 more year experienced JGreen/Alp/Bari/Tari/TyTy plus #4 pick plus 2 vet signing plus Ime -at least a mediocre HC- we should win 45+ games.

As expected I ticked 50 wins instead of 40 wins. If there was 45 wins option, I would choose that one.

 

adding Harden by himself doing what he wants, when he wants....
39 games (Play In)

adding Harden by himself with Harden and KPj conforming to
Udoka's system of everyone sharing the ball and everyone eating....
44 games

adding Harden and a few vets (such as Jevon Carter, Cam Johnson,
Brook Lopez, Siakim, Jerami Grant, Naz Reid, Beverly, OG, etc) depending....
50 games

adding a few vets (such as Jevon Carter, Cam Johnson, Brook Lopez,
Siakim, Jerami Grant, Naz Reid, Beverley, OG, etc) depending.......No Harden
46 games

 

100% agree.

 

It does depend a bit based on who we bring in , but this is year 2 and 3 for stones draft crop AND he is on his second coach. We also have massive capspace . To not take a significant step forward is definitely grounds for dismissal.

If we use the capspace on good players we think will help us Id like 41 + wins . Getting close might be OK. But if 3 years of top 5 picks and 60 mil in capspace doesnt get you near .500 , i think you are doing something wrong.

If we push the capspace more in the direction of taking on contracts for assets or looking to the future then i think 33 ish wins has stone safe.

If we are under 30 , id say almost no matter what the injury luck he deserves to be canned.

Furthermore, its like other people said too. If green , smith , sengun , tari etc dont look like theyve improved that much ... even if FA lead us to 35 + wins then he should be let go... granted if they are playing significant minutes and we have that many wins then they prolly got better ( even if it doesnt show on the stat sheet )

Stone's in a tough spot , but i feel no pity. If he picks a player that is high upside but a year or two away and we cant get over the hump .. then too bad muchacho . Maybe we will look back if the player breaks out in 24-25 , but someone else should be in the captains seat to bear the benefit of the foundation.

You cant be at the bottom of the league for 3 years and not take a big step.

 

I think the usual expectation for a substantial leap in Year 3 applies for rookies who are 21 or so when they enter the league. For players who enter at 19 and 20, it's probably more realistic to expect a clear jump in Year 4. So, that gives Green, Smith, and Sengun a little more leeway in my book.

For the upcoming season, I'm hoping that the Rockets make some good roster moves. They need to bring in veteran role players whom the new coach can trust to play his system. They should also be guys who can provide Green, Smith, Sengun, etc. the support and experience of playing as a team.

And unless he's a young player who can develop with the other core players, I don't think the Rockets need to break the bank to bring in an established star, such as Harden.

And even if they miss making the play-in tournament, as long as they remain competitive until the end of the regular season and show real progress, I'm good.