We have got to get Diaz in the line up everyday before the deadline to see if he can produce. That will answer lots of questions about rather we need to get a dh/ extra player. I think coming into the season I thought the biggest need was lf/dh but I think junks and Diaz are answering the call. Ironically the one position we thought we took care of (1b) is the biggest position of need. Since we won't do anything there I think we try to get our hands on a ace to form a triplet with valdez, javier. I wish we had actually not signed either brantly or abreau
This is the problem you will face every year. Set back and let deals you should have made be made by other teams. Or Make the deals and go forward. If you don't try and get better you end up setting on someone you should have traded along time ago. Yes Chas is a known name wright now. But what about next year or two years from now. We don't know? Diaz should no longer be in a lower tier if he keeps hitting. He may be a Abreu back up and C back up. He needs more ABs. So I would trade for Verdugo as some would say. But not for Chas it would have to be for something else. But I would call the Phillies and see if we could ship Chas to them. Maybe as a starter for Aaron Nola? Js that kind of trade makes alot of since. And would then allow you to trade a McCullers or Urquidy down the road....
No idea about their defense or contract situation but would Phillies want another OF? Schwarber is LF, Marsh CF, and Castellanos RF and I assume Harper will be ready to play RF next season at some point.
They would want starting pitching prospects most likely. Nola is a free agent and the big contract they gave Taijuan Walker this offseason is looking pretty bad right now.
They also have Pache who is a former top prospect who had a .960 OPS start to the season before getting hurt, has no minor league options but another year before arbitration and 4 years if control. With he, Marshall, Harper, Castellanos, and Schwarber there is no need or room for Chas
Forgot about Pache. What about Tyler Glasnow? McCormick and a few prospects for Glasnow and hope and pray he can stay healthy? Or Bassitt and Merrifield. Not straight up but pur a package togather and make a trade
I think Chas needs to be traded, but not until the offseason. He is simply too valuable for a contending team as a 110 OPS+ guy who can back up all 3 OF positions. This team needs a run producing bat that mashes RHP that can play LF /DH or maybe even 1B. Whether that's Brantley or someone else. If they need to trade Chas to get that so be it, but keeping him along with acquiring that player would make this among the best and deepest teams the Astros have ever had. And it would allow the team to option Julks to AAA which would almost be a bigger improvement by itself. Playing Julks regularly is exactly like playing Dubon last year.
WAR is a cumulative stat. It is useless as a comparative tool unless both players get the same amount of playing time.
I would say it's unfair to assume that because a guy puts up certain number in a part time role you can just extrapolate that production as if he played full time and also extrapolate his value in the same manner. Full time players are more valuable than part time players. We also covered a bunch of stats beyond WAR.
Astros lineup needs a third LH Bat whether it’s Brantley returning or a trade. I’m counting on Abreu hitting .250/.260 by the All-Star break and rolling with Dubon, Brantley, Diaz, etc at 1B if not. But still not giving up on him completely. 1. ALTUVE 2. PENA 3. ALVAREZ 4. BREGMAN 5. TUCKER 6. ABREU OR DUBON 7. BRANTLEY OR LH BAT 8. DIAZ 9. MEYERS 10. MALDONADO 11. DUBON OR ABREU 12. MC CORMICK 13. JULKS Need a frontline starter, Need another late inning power arm. 1. VALDEZ 2. JAVIER 3. TRADE 4. BROWN 5. PRESSLY 6. ABREU 7. LATE INNING GUY 8. MATON 9. NERIS 10. STANEK 11. MONTERO 12. URQUIDY 13. MCCULLERS
I agree with this somewhat. The biggest reason extrapolation has weakness in baseball is rest and part time players can be used optimally. I don't think extrapolation is a big deal for a guy that is playing 2/3s of the time regarding rest and that isn't being used optimally. Projections are usually better than extrapolation, but are also limited on how a player was utilized. Projections have difficulty measuring how a player will perform in a role he hasn't filled. For the most part, I think extrapolation are fine because usually fulltime players perform much better anyway. When part time players perform better by an extrapolation, it generally means they should be playing more.
To support my previous post using Astros and Verdugo, here's the 3-year counting total for WAR (2021-2023), FGDC WAR Projection for ROS, 3-year WAR extrapolated to a fullseason, and the FGDC extrapolated to a fullseason. For the most part, the fulltime players at a position do better in the extrapolations than the part time players (Julks and Diaz have too small a sample for this really to be appropriate). I think the numbers for Verdugo, Chas, and Meyers are interesting. Chas and Verdugo provided about the same value over the last three years, but Chas has way outperformed on a per PA basis. Verdugo being a fulltime player (i.e., he's getting less regression) and having a great season leads to a better projection. As a fulltime CF, I'd put Chas's value closer to 3-year extrapolation and as a fulltime corner OF as closer to FGDC EXT WAR. Overall, I'd value Chas as a 2.5 WAR player in trades (personally, I think there is more value here but Astros aren't going to get it out of him with the way the team is currently constructed and utilized). Obviously, I think the Meyers production is impacted a lot due to injuries, but think his projection probably isn't that far off what it would be ignoring that season considering this season's data is weighted more (i.e., Chas is getting a ton more regression in his projections for time in LF than Meyers is being hurt by his injuries).
The physical grind everyday players deal with goes overlooked. You need to be a guy that can still be a solid performer when you are nicked up. A recent example of that is Pena getting hit on the hand/wrist by a 98 MPH fastball and then staying in the game. He was also in the lineup the next day and got 2 hits. Anyone that has been hit like that knows you feel that for a week or more.
Dubon is a great utility player who can be an important part of a winning team. But he is limited offensively which gets exposed over a large sample size. Pena is not a perfect player, obviously. He's not exactly an MVP candidate. But he is clearly an everyday player and will contend for All Star consideration year in and year out for the next decade.
That's kind of the point. Extrapolations are just data. Most of the time, decisions on who to play regularly is pretty easy, and extrapolations by themseleves work just fine. It is when they are close that other information (load management, how much will playing fulltime affect a player, platoon issues, etc.) should be used with extrapolations as part of the decision making process. For the current Astros, I don't think there are any close decisions based on extrapolating publicly available information with the exception of catcher in which the data is too small for Diaz. I think other information suggests Diaz should be playing a lot more than he is.
Dubon hits lefties well but doesn't hit righties. He could face tough lefties for Verdugo. I don't know - I actually kind of like the idea of Verdugo hitting lead off with Dubon subbing in against lefties. Verdugo has a 900 OPS with a 380 OBP against righties. Dubon has an 870 OPS and a 420 OBP against lefties. It doesn't really take up any additional roster spots because Dubon also can cover other spots. Verdugo/Dubon Pena Altuve Alvarez Bregman Tucker Abreu/(trade) Meyers Maldonado/Diaz That is pretty stout, especially if Abreu turns it around - if he doesn't, the Astros can likely get someone to play there are get a 750-800 OPS.... when Diaz starts, that is a 9 deep lineup
I would move Yainer Diaz into tier one. He is 24 years old as a rookie that is throwing out a high percentage of baserunners and has an OPS+ of 113 and an exit velocity close to star level, and he is a rookie. The Astros could get a lot for him. His only real wart is his OBP and his past reputation. A young catcher that can throw runners out, hit for average and power is very valuable. I don't think the Astros are going to walk away with the biggest couple of names in trade at the deadline, but they do have the pieces to make it happen. I expect the Astros to get the best of the rest to fill a couple holes.
