OG is NOT under the Arenas Rule. That rule is strictly about players who come off of non-standard rookie contracts - they signed either a one or two year deal which has expired, and the team has no bird rights as a result. Leaving them unable to match. The Arenas provision allows the team to match with their MLE or early bird rights in the first year and an 8% raise in the second year with the remaining money tacked onto the final two seasons - the poison pill. The rule OG is dealing with is the veteran extension rule which under the current CBA allows for a 120% raise and the new CBA allows for a 140% raise on his last years salary on an extension. That would equate to $26,099,999 in the first year of the extension - that's the most Toronto is allowed to offer right now as an extension and that might be somewhat undervalued for a guy like OG who could make more in the FA market. It's not that the team can't extend him, they can if he would sign, it's that the numbers don't make sense for the player. He probably gets a 4 year deal for ~$30m or more as an unrestricted free agent. Simply put, the player is much better off waiting for free agency and taking a larger deal.
This is a great summary. Also important to point out that a player cannot sign any extension with a raise of greater than 105% until 6 months have passed before or after a trade. So even if there is some kind of "handshake" deal, the actual deal cannot be signed for 6 months, and handshake deals are fundamentally not binding. They are technically circumventions of the CBA, so you can't even get really get mad if one party breaks the deal. So the player has 6 months in which they can change their mind, be swayed by another team, outplay the agreed contract etc. And at that point it's only 2-3 months until the season ends, so the player has strong incentive to wait a few months to see what the FA offers look like.
So you agree OG will be getting $34-35M+, if Grant is getting $31-33M? theref Sure, you can have your opinion. It’s not really relevant to what will actually happen. Case in point, Jerami Grant literally already turned down 28M/yr for 4 years a few months ago. The market changes, the cap increases, guys make more money every year.[/QUOTE] Understood, as I said the deals I was looking at were done previously and free agents are resetting the market. I don't think he has an appeal to many teams. There are a lot of stretch 4s with ok vision and limited rebounding who contribute average or worse on defense. Cam Johnson for example might be a more comparable player though he is a better shooter. I'm just guessing, but I have a feeling Ryan Anderson was pretty close to what Grant is now. What you're doing comparing OG and Grant is like comparing Michael Jordan to Joe Dumars but you can't bring up scoring. Anunoby is an elite defensive player. That is 80% of the reason to pick him over Grant. The rest is age. Grant isn't an elite defender. That's half the game of basketball. Not saying Grant is a bad player, just saying he has a 3 or 4 year window. Most of the teams with cap space want guys they can resign over the cap because they will be capped out when his deal is up after extensions in places like Orlando and Detroit. I think he ends up on a veteran team ultimately for 20-25 range...
What if they agree to let him get to free agency and then max him instead of an extension? Sure, there's a risk he lies and walks in free agency. There's also a risk the team pulls it back after a bad year or injury. There's a middle ground too where the player says if you offer max i will for sure resign but anything less I shop your deal. Then a team effectively has an option and the player a hedge against signing too cheaply via extension rules.
I think that would take some cooperation with OG. They would getter better offers. Nets turned down 4 #1 picks for Bridges. OG is probably worth 3 such picks if Bridges worth 4. Depends who is offering them too. What if it was #4 for OG and #13? You can then use 20 to get into top 10 for a point guard or rim protecting 5. There are guys I like late in this draft I would like as backups that aren't going higher than 15. I would be thrilled with turning 4 and 20 into OG Anunoby, Dereck Lively, and Amari Bailey. Then all you're missing is a veteran point guard and you have 40 million left in cap space to fill... Derrick White and the promise not to match Grant Williams would look good to me in that scenario.
You say this as if it's not commonplace in the nba to have such deals worked out in advance. You only see that from the perspective of the negative. What if he reneged on the deal and hit the market? What if he tears an Achilles or flashes some guns at a kid? Protects the team to back out...
I really feel like people need to stop mentioning Brooklyn turning down four crappy first round picks from Memphis. Some team would probably give us 6 crappy first rounders for #4. if Brooklyn thinks they can build around what they have more power to them but I don’t think turning down #3 for Bridges is smart. Yeah, you may increase the value of the assets that you give Houston, but you also come away with a legitimate building block.
The difference with Bridges is that he was already signed long term. There are definitely some teams ahead of us that could trump our offer. But some would also have to send back awful contracts that may not be too appealing. The teams I would worry about would be Dallas at #10, Atlanta at #15 or even the Lakers at #17.
Commonplace? When? When has a team traded as much value as a top 5 pick for a non-superstar on an expiring contract? It has never happened. It has never even happened for a *superstar* on an expiring contract, except for AD, whose unique circumstances have already been discussed. Top 10 players on expiring contracts have been traded for significantly less (Harden, Paul George, CP3, Dwight). OG is not top 50. Why do you think that is? Giving up your franchise’s best asset for a non-binding handshake is potential career suicide. No competent GM would ever do it.
You are entitled to your opinion that a 15% chance at a star is more valuable than a 100% chance at a quality nba starter. I disagree. Your examples are interesting. I don't think you checked your trades. Harden went for an unprotected Raptors pick expected to be very high AND a quality player in Martin AND their most recent 1st round pick. George got traded for Oladipo and Sabonis. The Thunder lost that trade. Your examples are all over the place. Give me someone like OG of similar age who was traded for less with 1 year left. Ultimately it doesn't matter because the Rpators will get a lot for him if they trade him and you will be nowhere to be found. But i agree with you if you erased the concept of defense from my brain and I could ignore it like you.
Nope. The first Harden trade was on a rookie contract, obviously not what I’m talking about. When he was traded from Brooklyn to Philly it was an expiring contract trade, with a top 10 player. He returned the #28 pick, a heavily protected 2027 first, and Ben Simmons’ bad contract. Paul George as a top 10 player on an expiring contract was traded for 4th year Victor Oladipo, who was perceived as a bust at that point (he was averaging 15 ppg on 53% TS) and Sabonis who was a 2nd year 11th pick coming off a miserable rookie year averaging 6 ppg on 39% FG. Not even close to 4th pick value. This is like if we traded KPJ and the 20th pick for prime Paul George. OG is like 5 tiers below the level of player of prime Harden, Paul George, CP3, Dwight Howard. Like these are some all time greats in their prime on expiring contracts… and you want to give more for OG on an expiring contract? Come on. This is tiresome. We’re not trading #4 for a non-superstar on an expiring contract. It just isn’t gonna happen.
Here is a close example... Jerami Grant was traded by OKC for a top 10 protected first to Denver when he had 1 year left. He was far less accomplished at the time than OG now. That's why it wasn't a top 10 pick. A role player going 13/5 a night flipped for a possible lottery pick with 1 year left.
You just love to ignore what I said... show me a similar player to OG going for less in his last year... Harden went for a possible top 5 pick and a 20 pt scorer and a recent pick. Comparing OG to the wrong Harden trade after he has become a superstar is silly. I find it amusing you think so little of OG but compare him to hall of famers. I'm well aware how quickly OKC gave up on Sabonis. One bad rookie year doesn't harm your value a ton. Apparently 2 bad years enhances your value if you're Jalen Green...
Probably because it disproves what you were claiming. Harden had 1 year left and his age was only a couple years younger than OG. He was a 6th man award winner, OG was all defense award winner. Makes more sense than comparing to Chris Paul who had an opt out and was only getting traded to help make it to Houston instead of somewhere else for more money. OG doesn't have an opt out right now. Clearly he would go for a lot less with that leverage...
Thank you for the correction. I’m sorry for the mis-information I passed along several times. I do think the outcome is the same. What are the rules for the Rockets? Could they offer more than the 26M which they couldn’t match?
