All of Amen Thompson’s makes and misses from 3 at OTE

I don't think the Rockets have enough high level talent, which is why I would take Thompson at #4, and I believe he fits the Rockets needs in a lot of ways.

There is some time left before the draft, it is possible Hendricks blows up and goes at #4 - but I suspect he is in the group of guys right below that.

If the Rockets decide that they don't want Thompson or Whitmore - then Hendricks is in play.

 

both whom stink in the modern era. One can't even play because he's too scared abut being exposed over and over and the other going from team to team telling themselves oh we can make it work and clearly end up with the same trash results

folks who like those two share the same loser qualities they do

 

Go back and compare Walker's one college season vs Adebayo. Bam might have 2 inches on him, but otherwise the same measurements (Walker's got bigger hands), plus he didn't match Walker's agility tests AND showed nowhere near the potential as a shooter.

People are sleeping on this kid.

 

Another duplicate.

 

Ben kept passing open layups. Russell kept shooting 30 shots a game. Both of them were uncoachable too.

Amen is none of that.

 

Watching Amen in OTE is like watching an athletic/raw HS Varsity player (who came off the bench) go up against against a bunch of 8th and 9th graders at the local gym. His physical tools look so ridiculous against them that you might be able to convince yourself he's a D1 prospect, even though his jumper looks worse than the kids'.

My main points are:

• His J is more broken than any top perimeter prospect I can remember. Those that point to his ability to breakdown a defense are glossing over how much harder it is to do that when your defender is playing 10 feet off of you, like with Ben Simmons or current Westbrook. There are far, far more examples of shaky shooters who never made it than those who "learned" how to shoot in the pros (i.e., Jaylen Brown), and Amen might have the most broken J of them all.
• He didn't dominate in OTE as a 20 year old playing against 16-17 year olds. His scoring largely came in transition, and struggled in the half-court. Guys like Dominick Barlow and Jean Montero did just as well/better in OTE, and didn't get drafted. Him and Ausar were ranked around #30 two years ago in their HS class, and have spent the last two seasons in a weak league with glossy highlight tapes. It feels fishy, like riding a wave of online hype before people can identify the lack of substance there.
• I worry about Whitmore's passing, but he's 1.5 years younger, was a top ranked prospect who dominated against other top guys, and seems to have a clear path to becoming a better pro than CBB player. He does need to play off an established playmaker (Harden? Haliburton in Indy?) to really flourish.

I'd try to trade up for Scoot, trade down for Black, or trade out of the pick altogether. I'd be okay with Cam but I don't know if he's the best fit with Bari/Tari already in place.

 

both can't shoot worth a lick. Amen is all of that including the free throw line.

 

We need shooters in the worst way. Not guys who people THINK will develop a shot. We were the worst shooting team in the NBA last year.

 

I'm not feeling it with Amen. The shooting problems and questionable competition at OTE...too risky.

 

What is the baseline or average for layup shooting in this OTE league? What is the OTE layup % relative to NCAA, G League, or NBA? Also, do we know how old those guys in the video are? What is the average age of the players in OTE? According to reports from Time and Forbes, the league is composed of 16-20 year olds. Their website features a few of their players on it including the Thompson twins and most of those guys were 18-19 with a handful of 20 year olds in there. And there were some guards and 3’s his size on there as well. Besides Amen isn’t a pro or has NCAA experience. He hasn’t been coached by elite NCAA coaches or been thru any NCAA program for that matter so the experience factor or savvy wouldn’t be that much of a factor. Besides, he joined OTE when he was 18 and played 2 years in OTE. I don’t know enough about the guy to make judgement on him. Just giving you the facts and whether you and others are fairly assessing or judging him.

 

Oh geez, this thread is going way too fast. I picked out a few things to respond to below, but I might have to check back in later.

Just to repeat what I shared earlier:

Does that not seem at least a little concerning? Again, especially since I don't know how you can practice this outside of team scrimmages and whatnot. Unlike shooting, which you can do anytime you have a ball and a basket.

Again, passing/"feel" is easy to develop, but shooting is impossible?

And to repeat, I have Cam right behind Amen, so obviously I love Cam as a prospect as well, but I think there's a lot of exaggeration of Amen's issues and handwaving away of Cam's issues.

Out of curiosity, what are the list of players that doubled/tripled their AST% as they matured (presumably with similar usage)? I do see some guys that were maybe around 12-15% (either from rookie year or college numbers), and they got up to 20-30%, which is impressive. But seems to be guys that went from role players (at best) to being "the guy" for their team. Which great, good for them. But I'm also not sure Cam will end up being "the guy" like those others. I'd probably put similar odds that Amen can shoot 30% or better from 3.

For Joel, his AST% numbers have been pretty consistent (and high) throughout his career, except for a decent jump these last few years. I'm looking up guys like Kawhi, Booker, etc., and it seems like they all had pretty good AST% either in their rookie year or in college (or both). And like I mentioned above, their AST% seemed to jump as their usage increased. Obviously if you have a 10-15% usage, your AST% might not be that great.

I agree it is hard to come up with a stat for "feel," but I think the combination of AST% and usage (along with TOs and maybe some other numbers) can give you an idea of how a player processes their reads. And yeah...Cam doesn't shine very brightly in these numbers (i.e., high usage but low AST%). Of course, you can see this when you watch his play too (which is what Nook and others are addressing). I'm just throwing in some stats for reference to go with it.

Also, I'm a little confused by your list of guys who didn't improve...because most of them did I think? Ben Simmons is a no (and he's broken because he won't even shoot them). MKG is a no (he also...didn't seem to like shooting 3s). Fultz...kinda had a good year IMO (31% isn't great, but it is good enough to not be a huge liability IMO). The rest seemed to get a least a little better IMO? (at least good enough to not be a huge liability IMO)

If Amen goes from a 25% 3pt shooter to a 30%-33% 3pt shooter (with a 15-20% 3pr), I'd put him above Scoot as 2nd best prospect. And if Cam can get to 10%+ AST%, you can probably throw his name into that conversation too.

 

I thought Shaedon Sharpe was too risky because of the unknowns and I admit I need to eat some crow.

 

Hell, PJ Tucker was able to get two assists per game in 28 minutes last season in Miami.

 

I look at it like this - we have shooters already (Smith/Green/Sengun) that haven't shot well.

If those guys don't become good outside shooters - there is no point in bringing in shooters, because we won't be good enough.

Amen Thompson is a very good passer that can help those guys shoot better.

Time will tell what ends up happening.... maybe the Rockets trade up and end up with Henderson or maybe they take Amen and he becomes a 35% shooter outside of 10 feet and a star - or maybe the Rockets trade #4 to the Magic for their two picks and end up with Hendricks and another guy like Black....

 

The Rockets need everything. They have no established players at any position. If they are going to make the pick at 4 they should be choosing BPA.

 

If he at least goes to those shots as part of his game then teams can work with that. If he doesn’t attempt those shots usually or that its not a part of his natural game then to me that’s a concern and would require a lot more development and time and it may not even be part of his go to arsenal after the development and experience.

 

Yup - all of that is true... if he can become a 33-36% shooter outside of 10 feet, he will likely be a many time all-star.

Dwayne Wade shot about that %.... Ja Morant overall early on shot that %, but developed a solid 10-12 foot shot........ Fox developed that and more..... and many more players.

IF he does that, athletically and as a ball handler, passer, defender - he can hang with anyone.

It comes down to whether the Rockets or other teams think he will do it or not. Does he have the work ethic? Does he have enough ability as a shooter?

 

On the topic of this team needing shooting, I 100% agree.

But I'm also not sure I'd try to tackle that with the draft, especially if we're talking about shooting likely coming from role players. We can just throw money at Cam Johnson, Grant Williams, Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, Seth Curry, Joe Ingles, Brook Lopez, etc., and BAM now we have shooting (at least in theory).

Can we throw money at someone who can pretty much get you a paint touch at will? Well outside of Kyrie and maybe a small handful of others...no? (correct me if I'm wrong)

That's actually another reason I prefer getting a playmaker/PG in the draft vs a wing (though I really like Cam and Miller is probably alright too).

 

He goes to them, just not with enough success yet.

I agree with you, there is risk involved.

He really is a player that is going to 100% depend on if he can raise his shooting percentage from outside of 10 feet enough.

I will say this - if he does become an okay mid range shooter, I think he will be a genuine star in the NBA.