All of Amen Thompson’s makes and misses from 3 at OTE

As an 18 year old all of those aren't exactly impossible. being a serviceable passer as well as processing the game comes with time in the league. a lot of that comes with actual experience and learning from mistakes and what works and what doesn't

 

Walker's skill set along with his agility testing is enough to take him at 4. Easy to envision him in many lineups with the current squad. He's a solid, low fat 240 at 19 yrs old. Can move like a guard. Will be a good 4 or small ball 5. Has crazy lateral movement and defensive awareness. Him, Bari and Tari would project as an upcoming defensive nightmare for the league.

 

So I've seen Ja thrown out as an example of someone with a good floater/mid-range game...and I guess I don't really agree? At least based on numbers.

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong data. But depending on how you slice it, it seems like Ja fluctuates from 34% to 48% depending on the season and distance (basically looking at groupings in the 5-19 feet range). I'd guess generally around high 30s to low 40s in most cases is his conversion rate though.

And I guess that's...alright? But we're still probably talking about 0.7-0.9 PPS. Which is probably comparable to Amen taking a 3 with 25%-30% 3pt shooting. If guys are just going to sag off him from there anyway, I'd probably just tell him to take 3s than floaters/mid range shots, even if he was as good (or bad) as Ja/others. If he actually had a decent 3pt shot (ala Harden and maybe JG), then that's where the mid-range could be more useful from a PPS perspective, but yeah I'm not sure I'm that concerned. Especially if he can get to the rim with ease and generally convert at ~60% or so.

I admit to being an Morey Acolyte though, and I know others value the mid-range more than me (even with IMO poor mid-range shooting splits).

 

A lot of people on here focus on his three point shooting. My question is does he have a mid range 15-19 ft game or a 10 ft floater game? You don’t need to shoot threes to be a successful player in the NBA if you have other skills. Take Morant and Fox for instance who can’t shoot anything beyond 20 ft. They are both poor long range/3 pt shooters but they both have a mid range game and 10 ft floater game and they both shoot high percentages from these areas. If Amen has at least a mid range shot in his arsenal teams can work with that since he is a superb passer with great awareness and explosive player. I haven’t seen it but does anyone know if he has a midrange?

 

This is a pure project player.

not interested

 

I’m also a bit confused on why ball movement isn’t a trait that can’t be coached/learned for an 18 year old

We routinely see players double and triple their assists rates as they mature. Not saying Cam will ever be a PG but a good off ball wing?

Just feels like forcing someone to pass is easier then trying to force them to make 3PT shots

 

Dwayne Wade shot 29% from the floor outside of 10 feet as a rookie in the league - for his career he shot 36% outside of 10 feet.

Ja Morant does have a passable jumper out to 16 feet... after that he is around 32%.

Rusell Westbrook for his career is a 35% shooter outside of 3 feet from the basket.

 

Most players improve their feel for the game over time, but very few get credit for improving as passers. Kawhi, Jimmy Butler, and Booker didn't come into the league being able to initiate an offense, but are able to do so now. How do you quantify that? There is no stat for "feel" and no one is looking something like pure point rating.

It's easy to analyze a shooting percentage. Shooting 30% from deep is terrible, shooting 35% is respectable, 40% is elite. It's easy to measure improvement. It is much harder to analyze passing ability. Someone like Joel Embiid "only" went from 2.1 assists as a rookie to 4.2 now on roughly the same usage rate, but his assist rate increased by 43% and his turnover rate decreased by 33%. Is he a good passer now?

Also, it's easier to remember who improved their shooting than it is to remember those that didn't, so there is a selection bias. Those that didn't improve their shot are either out of the league or it didn't matter. Everyone remembers Jason Kidd learning how to shoot. No one cares that Giannis, Wade, Westbrook, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Ben Simmons, MKG, Fultz and like 90% of centers never did.

 

Thoughts on Taylor Hendricks and his fit on this Rocket team?

 

Good question.

The short answer is that Amen shot solid from the mid-range in transition but did not shoot well from mid-range in half court sets.

He really hasn't been a good shooter overall outside of about 8 feet from the basket.

As for DeÁaron Fox - he has a good middle game now but he didn't when he was the same age as Thompson. As a rookie, DeÁaron Fox shot 32% on shots more than 3 feet from the basket. Fox slowly improved from there and now is very good at everything within 16 feet.

Ja Morant struggled from outside as a rookie, but did have a pet shot in the 12 foot range that he did well with.

Amen Thompson's shooting concerns are genuine - he will have to improve like Fox and others did....... but I don't think he has to improve as much as most others do to be effective because of his athleticism.

 

A player can improve their ball handling and passing with experience, just like they can improve their shooting - it happens, most players improve both once they are in the league a few years - it comes down to a question of how much they can improve it..... there are certain players that are so good athletically that they don't have to improve as much to still make a big impact in the league.

 

Hendricks would be a good fit on the Rockets but I wouldn't take him at #4. He will likely never be a dynamic offensive player, but he will be good for a long time. If the Rockets were picking at #6-7, he would likely be the player I would want.

 

the most basic simple swing passes playing rotational minutes already gets a player a couple assists a game without even having to be a true playmaker.

 

I think its time the team stopped throwing darts and took a more calculated approach. Fit should be important with this pick and taking Hendricks at 4 wouldnt be that much of a surprise - everyone loves Brandon Miller and I view Hendricks in the same light minus the accomplice to murder thing.

 

Whitmore averaged about half an assist a game last season - but I agree with you that he can improve with work and more experience.

I also believe that Amen Thompson will improve as a shooter with work and more experience as well.

It all comes down to how much you think they need to improve and how likely they are to improve.

I don't ever expert Amen Thompson to shoot 38% from 3 - but I do expect him to get to where he can shoot in the 30% from outside of 8-10 feet and that is a recipe a number of elite athletes have used to success.

 

The haters are calling him Ben Simmons and Russell westbrook. I'll take it, generational athleticism with bbiq.

With Ime, I trust the development of the rooks.