You said it yourself, OG is a very good role player. He’s not a top 12 small forward in the league. In value terms, you simply cannot trade the #4 pick in the draft for a role player. I think maybe the disconnect (not specifically with you, but folks who want to trade #4 for an OG level player) isn’t overvaluing OG or Siakam, it’s *undervaluing* the #4 pick. Just historically, picks in the 3-5 range have a ~40% chance of becoming true stars on rookie contracts. In the last 24 picks in that range, these guys were picked: Jaylen, Tatum, Fox, Luka, Trae, Garland, LaMelo, Mobley, JJJ. Trading away 40% chance at getting a player like that under 8-9 years of team and cost control, and getting back a high level role player who we’ll have for 1 year of team control, and maybe 3-4 years of a very expensive extension? No thanks.
Yes you can, and you could win the trade by a landslide too. In 2006 the #4 pick was Tyrus Thomas, and it just so happened that an elite role player was being shopped for a pick that year - Shane Battier Tyrus completely busted at 4 (which winded up being traded to the Bulls in a complicated 3 team deal), and Shane was traded for #8 to Hou instead. Battier >>> Thomas and maybe OG >>> #4, it’s all dependent on who’s selected there and how their career turns out. Could be a complete fail of a trade or a slam dunk. If our FO isn’t confident with anybody at #4, I see OG (w/extension) + 13 as a trade worth consideration is all I’m saying. That isn’t an Iko proposal and y’all can’t gaslight me into believing it is
OK, let me correct myself. If you have a crystal ball that can tell the future so you know which draft picks will work out and which won’t, you can absolutely trade the #4 pick for a role player. Unfortunately our front office doesn’t have one, nobody does. Chicago didn’t either. The previous year #4 pick was Chris Paul, the next year’s #4 was Mike Conley. Should those teams have traded #4 for Shane Battier? Chicago got unlucky and got Tyrus Thomas. Running a sports team is a probabilistic endeavor. It happens. All a front office can do is estimate probabilities and value and maximize them, then see what happens. Straightforwardly: 40% chance of a true star under team and cost control for 8-9 years has much more expected value than a 100% chance of a good role player on an expensive contract for 3-4 years.
We're talking in circles at this point, I'm not saying crystal ball but I am saying IF our FO isn't confident in who's available at #4 Also from a 2020 article So 33%, but #13 is 13%, so is trading a 20% chance at an all-star for an elite 26 y/o 3&D role player (W/Extension in place!) then worthy of a LITTLE consideration for a team trying to enter "phase 2"??? Perhaps still not I don't know. Lasv8 also makes a good point about just trying to sign him next year which would be nice, but it assumes we don't make any large signings this off-season (James) that inhibit next years cap, and that OG isn't wanting to sign an extension for the security this off season, whether with raps or to a new team through trade that isn't us. I'm just saying something like this doesn't look too bad Green / Porter / Washington Harden / Christopher Anunoby / Martin Smith Jr / Eason / Garuba Sengun / Lively(#13) +#20 and whatever 15 mill in FA fetches.
and this dude actually wants a bigger offensive role if the Rockets ever traded the #4 pick for this guy, there needs to be a class action lawsuit and a FBI investigation can’t believe people would actually entertain such a thing…4th pick in the draft is nowhere close to what his value is
I like OG Anunoby. Great defensive player. Hits open threes. Age fits our timeline. I would consider consolidating some lower-end picks and lesser assets for him (Tate, KJ Martin) to be the long-term solution for us at the 3, as long as he agrees to an extension. But he is absolutely not worth the #4 pick, nor any of our core players. If that's what Masai asks for, you hang up the phone immediately. He can call back when he's ready to talk sense.
Lol, you do not even know who would fall to No. 4, it could be Amen Thompson or Brandon Miller, but the value cannot be established until then. Chill and see what is what. Also other teams are eyeing Jarace, Whitmore with it, likely not whom the Rockets would take. Anunoby does make a little sense but would be better suited to be on a contending team.
OG is extremely overrated on this board. I’d much rather draft Jarace Walker at #4 if Scoot or Amen is not available. Jarace and Jabari can play 3-5 on defense. Let Sengun run point in the half court and you don’t even have to sign Harden. I would still try to find a couple of reasonably priced vets, like Conley, Caruso, Vincent or the like, but with Sengun playing point you have KPJ, Jarace, Jabari, and Green that I believe will get much better at hitting open 3 pters than last year’s team. KPJ can bring up the ball and your vet PG would take over distribution duties when Sengun sits. It’s ok to take another baby step next year as long as we improve 10 games or so and are more competitive throughout the year. It sucks that we didn’t have a better development coach, but it is what it is.
Our very own Clutch was on Red Nation Hoops' latest episode talking about the 4th pick. Reacting to the 4th pick + more James Harden reporting with w/ Dave Hardisty (@clutchfans) (48 min)
Got a bad feeling Stone's going to $hit the bed this offseason. Bringing in Harden would be a mistake. Overpaying for "vets" not worth the price based on production would be a mistake. Our young guys, the guy's they picked, need their time with a real coach. In a real system not designed to tank. Play the draft right. Bring in some free agents that fit with our group and will continue to grow with them. All decisions should be made with Udoka's approval. Stone has not proved ish so far. Let the coach choose his team and let him coach. Period.
Stone hasn't drafted badly at all. I do agree with you, he should draft in consultation with Udoka. TF and PF shouldn't be making basketball decisions.
I agree the Fertitta's should have zero input. Jury's still out on Stone's decisions. Never should have drafted JC. Should have spent more time scouting Garuba. Should have traded Gordon to Philly when they were offering the 20th pick. He's about 50/50 in the decision making dept.
Some useful info regarding trades for players with 1 year remaining on their contract (e.g., Siakam, OG, Jaylen, Dejounte, DeRozan, Paul George): - CBA extend and trade rules restrict a player from signing a significant contract extension for 6 months before any trade. So if any of these players sign an extension with their teams this summer, they are no longer trade eligible - More importantly, the same rule also restricts a player from signing a significant contract extension for 6 months *after* any trade. So if we acquire a player on an expiring contract in this summer, he cannot sign an extension with us until 2024. (Yes, handshake agreements exist… but they are not binding, a player could decide he prefers a different situation and walk) - Players at the end of their second contract are eligible for a veteran supermax if they earn All-NBA honors in the most recent season. So a player like Siakam (and less likely, Dejounte), has the possibility of being eligible for a $50M larger contract if he waits until his contract expires in summer 2024 to sign an a new deal Long story short — just based on how the contract rules work, we’re not going to trade #4 for anybody with an expiring contract.
