Don’t think they will be that bad . But will be tough to be too good too . I vote 15-20 but that might be too optimistic . I think the best range is like 9-18 but that’s cheating lol . the nets were due to get steamrolled by Philly . They made a huge move changing out Irving and Durant . Plus they seem to want to be a defensive oriented team . If bridges and Clayton and other strong defensive pieces have a training camp and full season together I think they can be more competitive . Time will also tell if philly is a contender. I don’t believe in Simmons . And he’s an albatross contract . Tough to see what they do there . 20-30% he becomes playable again ? idk if they keep cam Johnson . Depends on how big of an offer they get . It could put them in the tax but presumably they don’t have many other means of adding / retaining players . Could Ben Simmons plus picks get you Rudy gobert lol they at least have contracts to play with and they did recoup some picks in the Durant trade . Plus half of what they owe us is swaps . For a team trying to win , sometimes you can pick up vet min guys / undrafted / glueage guys that produce just as well as first rounders .
Very good chance Ben Simmons never plays another NBA game. Although the ideal thing for our picks would be for him to play but be terrible so they can't get a cap exception.
In exchange for what? Why would Portland make that trade? Only thing I can think of would be Claxton, but then the Nets lose their only rim protector and I don't see a Claxton-less Nets as being better than Portland's current roster.
Nets fans think they can get Dame for Ben Simmons, Cam T, and 3 firsts. lol. The truth is they *maybe* could get Dame via sheer volume of firsts, but since they have no meaningful young players to offer, and no near-term valuable firsts, it would have to be an unprecedented number. IMO if they wanted it to be based around Simmons and filler it would have be their 2 late firsts this year + the other 3 of the Phoenix picks + their own 29 + the Dallas pick. If I’m Portland I still would rather have a deal with real young pieces coming back. Like from the Pelicans or even from us in a 3 way with Boston for Jaylen.
Man, IDK. I guess if Portland can't find anything else, but picks in the 20s just have so little value, and Phoenix's roster is looking pretty good for awhile going forward. That Dallas pick could be something, but that's 2029, isn't it? That's so incredibly far out. Also, if I'm Dame and I have any say in this, I don't want to be on a Brooklyn team with no cap space and gutted of every single tradeable asset. Does a core with Lillard, Bridges, and Claxton win anything? Is that really better than his current situation? I'd try to get to a better team if I were him.
Yeah I mostly agree. NBA fandom has kind of lost its way thinking about far future picks — people so often forget to factor in time value. These picks 4-6 years away have to be majorly discounted in a trade made today. What do those picks do for Portland during their rebuild window? Nothing. Like, what if the Magic want Dame. They could give them two mid lottery picks this year + Suggs + Fultz. That beats any Brooklyn package by a lot, because they get to rebuild with legit pieces right now.
I think you're assuming the worst case scenario for everything. The way to test for that is: - Is there any way to stay static than to hold on to a high volume of mediocre picks rather than package them? Isn't that the worst decision possible? - Is it possible a two time All Star and two time All NBA player in Siakam makes no difference to their team? - If nothing else works out, is it possible they then turn down Jimmy Butler because of his age? - Can it be that ALL the players I mentioned are so flawed that they won't move a needle regardless of coaching, system, a full training camp, etc? These are really stark projections. I would love it to be the case, but I never bet on the worst possible outcome unfolding as it's the rarest thing that happens in the world. What you're saying is that the most likely outcome is they look at the roster and assets and decide there's nothing they can do and they just draft #15 picks over and over again. If tanking was an option (i.e. they own their own picks) then I can see a case for them blowing it up. But they don't, so they will neither tank nor sit on 4-5 mediocre picks. They'll package all their picks with their second or third worst rotation player and get back a new top 3 player on their roster (Dinwiddie or Harris' expiring contract for example). That will improve any team. We're not talking about championship here, we're just talking about finishing in the top 16 out of 30 i.e. they don't even have to be in the best 50% of teams to make the playoffs. I know I can describe a scenario and you can find a flaw in it where we subjectively disagree on the value of some element of it. What would be the point of that exercise. The point is that there are too many things you can do with a package of 4 mediocre first rounders for them to end up doing nothing but drafting mid first round players for 3 years. There are tons of players who improve significantly on new teams and/or under new coaches. There are scorers who are not needed on their teams but would make a major difference to a team desperate for scoring. If a GM told an owner they can not do anything to improve a roster overflowing with excellent 3&D wings and 4 tradeable mediocre first round picks, that person would not get hired or would get fired. That's such a decent situation to be in and Marks has gotten them out of a FAR worse situation. I can't imagine things would unfold as poorly as you're describing to be honest. I guess we wait and see.
The problem is I don't know if they even have any picks you could characterize as "mediocre". All of their first-round picks until 2028 are from Phoenix or Philly. Those could easily be 25-30 and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. Those are bad picks. Somewhat rare to find a solid rotation player that late, let alone a player with serious value. Other teams know this too. Nothing is certain in basketball... one of their young players could take a surprisingly big step forward, or Phoenix could suddenly blow up overnight like the Nets themselves just did and those picks could suddenly start looking pretty good. But in the context of this offseason, they are in one of the worst spots in the NBA in terms of flexibility and future potential. Personally, if I'm Stone, I'm looking to cash in on that, especially with my job on the line. I wouldn't just sit on those picks--strike while the iron is hot.
Yeah but again, that's the worst case scenario. That's not the median likely outcome. That Phx and Philly - two teams heavily reliant on players in their 30's - will both be top 5 teams for 4 years is the absolutely worst case scenario. It literally couldn't be any worse than all picks from Philly and Phoenix ending up 25-30. If it's the worst case scenario, it's highly unlikely that's what will unfold. We would literally have to characterize it is a lucky outcome for us. I really don't believe they're in the worst situation. They have Bridges, O'Neal, DFS and Cam Johnson >> two of these guys are not necessary and would fetch great trade value at the guard position. Dinwiddie and Harris are great sized expiring contract for attaching to picks. Cam Johnson is restricted and teams would have to overpay him to steal him. They have those picks from PHX and PHI. Seth Curry is the only rotation player they're at risk of losing and he has been insignificant as anything but a part time shooter. They went 11-12 after the break with no training camp and a major roster overhaul. They were caught off guard by Irving/Durant trade requests and had no time to supplement the team with signings and other trades. Do you really think it's a good bet that they won't be better than .500?
The only team who would "Want Simmons" is the team that's selling its cap space for a few more assets while tanking and that team might give him the John Wall treatment - go away. Other than that, no one would want him.
There's a difference between getting him for cap space and sending out multiple first round picks and cap space. Yes, he has some trade value but you aren't trading him and picks 21 & 22 and two future random picks for a needle moving player who lifts you out of the lottery.
I can't reconcile the idea that he's worth $20m+ on the court at age 27 on a secure long term contract and he won't get them 2 picks. They can just re-sign him and trade him before the deadline. They won't get 2 picks? No offense at all Corrosion in fact I agree with you a lot on what you say, but to be just completely honest I'm tired of this discussion as it's at a very minutely subjective stage of what we think Johnson might net. I feel like I've spent 6 posts just saying: what you're saying is possible, but it is the worst case scenario and that summarizes my thoughts on the subject. In reality I hope the worse case scenario unfolds and it is a long shot but possible I guess. I just don't plan things in my mind based on the luckiest outcome I can achieve so maybe it's just a personality thing.
I guess I joined the discussion at the tail end .... don't mean to beat a dead horse. I just don't see their assets as more desirable than many other options to a team in a trade and I don't see them as a team a star on the move would agree to join.
Yeah, Brooklyn needs to somehow make something happen this offseason if they don't want to hand us a mid-lottery pick. And they don't have a lot of assets to do it. We'll see if they can pull a squirrel out of their hats.
They have combinations of their own, the Suns' picks, and the 76'ers' picks. It's not like they don't have picks. The only year they may be screwed I think was 2024.
