Government showdown of 2023

I am for term limits on justices as well. And I think that's a pretty reasonable and conservative adjustment to make. Some folks (outside the bbs) seem to think its possible to pass a law that does so without a need for a constitutional amendment, so I was making the argument that even this reasonable and conservative adjustment is basically impossible given the Court's structural immunity.

Other, grander constitutional adjustments may or may not be wise, but given how impossible even modest term limits are, I really don't see the point in contemplating those.

So, basically I agree with you, but none of it speaks to my original point. If Biden invokes the 14th Amendment and takes the debt ceiling to a SCOTUS showdown, an adverse decision by the SCOTUS may cause public discontent but that discontent will not drive change in the SCOTUS' role unless we literally and figuratively want to burn the whole damn thing down (which I don't advise we do either).

 

We have a gov shutdown when Congress doesn't approve a federal budget for the upcoming fiscal year. That is about future spending. It is a much more proper tool Congress can use than risking default. A shutdown means there IS money appropriated for the current obligation, but the gov is not in operation. However, there are mandatory gov functions that cannot be shut down, including payment to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

We have never defaulted on any of our obligations before. Default happens when we RUN OUT of money (because we can't borrow pass the debt limit) and can no longer meet our obligations. Those obligations include Social Security and Medicare payments, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds, and so on, as mentioned in the 'debt limit letter to Congress' on 1/13/23.

Debt Limit Letter to Congress (treasury.gov)

 

Isn't confidence everything? After all, it's just a note. If you can't trust the note...

 

This whole thing is because of one fact.

GOP thinks Dems are so weak that they can bully them like this. If Dems stood up and said not going to happen, GOP would never try it again.

 

I don’t agree with this at all. They are doing this because they think their voters are stupid and will believe whatever propaganda they spin and they think MSM will both sides the argument which they already are.

If you think Liz Warren is voting to gut social security then you’re crazy. The fact that the MSM forgets to include the fact that Democrats have a vote here too is infuriating.

The Republicans made this a play to get legislative priorities passed by simply putting a gun to the global economy’s head. The debt ceiling and the government usually get funded for a million reasons but mostly it’s because neither side is going to agree on legislative priorities. Either leadership and the White House find a way to kick the can like they always do or the government defaults on its debt which is more likely because the GOP is run by political terrorists.

This has nothing to do with the strength of Democrats. Even if they yelled and cussed and screamed the MSM won’t cover it. And they probably are yelling and screaming and you don’t even know it.

 

Government shutdown and debt default are two totally different and unrelated things.

 

They are supposed to be but the GOP’s plan here is assuming the media will cover this as if they aren’t and that it’s Biden’s duty to acquiesce because they control the House. And in the minds of their viewers they know they will believe that means they have all the power in the world.

The GOP aren’t wrong about the intelligence of their viewers and voters. Or I guess ignorance is a better word to use. It’s a willfulness to try and hide facts from themselves that don’t align with their ideology.

The fact is this could have been a presidential Medal of Freedom. If the Republicans in the House knew their votes were needed to give out a medal to Dolly Parton, or Maya Angelo, they’d demand cutting social security by half if they could count on Fox News and CNN messaging for them that Biden has a duty to negotiate with them.

That’s how ridiculous this whole stunt is and shows how broken our media is in this country.

 

I guess come June 1 Janet Yellen will have to tell Congress the unfortunate news that US Treasury doesn't have the money to pay for Congressional salaries and benefits.

 

I disagree. The GOP doesn't care how their actions are viewed - we've seen that in the abortion fights and other things. They are scared to death of their base and will do anything, no matter how ridiculous, to avoid pissing them off. Whatever other effects it might have to their party or the country is pretty irrelevant. That's been going on for several years now.

 

I told you I may be misremembering it.

 

I’ll correct that a bit. I think the voters actually want to default because it’s an ideology of destruction at this point. The GOP is only hoping that the propaganda will help them spin the narrative that they are the heroes in this story fighting some bigger existential war. The base also wants the economy to suffer under Biden so they can say “look!!”. This is a base of extremist voters that routinely vote against their own interest and against the interest of the country in order to service the existential cultural war.

But they do need the media to help hand them talking points to feel good about what they support for sure.

 

I agree, the extreme views of people like MTG and Cruz are driving this, this is the deal Mccarthy made with certain clicks inside the gop, he has to keep them happy who will in turn lie to the base and keep them happy. If Mccarty gives in, he`s done as speaker...........I wonder if turtle will step in at the last minute and save this thing because I have no doubt the gop will drive this off the cliff to prove a point, they are in CONTROL. This whole thing is disgusting, I hope the calmer and moderate gop members step in and take control of this, but they wont. I have this horrible feeling the gop extremists are hoping this happens because they think the WH will cave and give in to these ridiculous demands

 

The author's basic argument is that the Supreme Court is run by extremists (activists, or whatever you want to call them) and that you can't trust them to rule in your favor, no matter how slam dunk you think your case is. Valid argument. These judges are known to rationalize any decisions, no matter how irrational or wrong they may be.

One liberal counter-argument to this basic argument is to dare the Court to destroy the US and world economy. The uproar will destroy them.

Of course, Biden, being a moderate, isn't going to risk a favorable court ruling in his favor. So the most sensible moderate thing to do is still to get Congress to raise the debt limit. But one thing Biden is assuming (at least on the surface) that could be wrong is that the GOP doesn't want a default. They might want one. If that is the case, Biden has no choice but to borrow above the debt limit to pay the debt, and the US and the world will have to face the consequences of the actions the GOP and the Court might take in response.

P.S. The author also thinks that the debt limit might be the stupidest law we ever had. He's probably right. Imagine if there were a law that said speech is limited to 1000 characters on any internet platform until Congress increases the limit. And yes, there could be an extremist rationlization for it. Your right to speech was constructed during a time without the internet, and thus it does not apply to the internet.

 

The Supreme Court doesn't have the power to order a default.

 

I think the media part is wrong. If Biden invokes the 14th, the world will go on. Dems will say they are saving the country. GOP will say they are destroying it; both sides will get coverage. No one in the public will change their minds as a result of that part of it.

The 2nd part of what you wrote is spot-on. I suspect the 14th Amendment argument would survive. But markets - and bondholders - want certainty. The damage that would be done while that question remains unanswered would be devastating and would send both the US and global economies into turmoil. Full faith and credit of the US government is different than probable faith and credit of the US government.

The proper way to handle this was probably a year ago to have the US start borrowing a ****-ton of money preemptively and going over the debt ceiling. Force the GOP to sue at that point (do they even have standing?) and try to get the question resolved in advance.