I don't get the low band of outcomes for a guy that is averaging over 3.5 fWAR per 600 PAs while not being used in his most valuable position half the time. Sure, I expect regression, but the biggest reason Chas probably will not get to 3.5 fWAR in a season is that he's unlikely to get 600 PAs in a full season.
I could be lowballing him; there’s really not much in his underlying past that points to him having been overly lucky. But the projections don’t really show him continuing to be that good.
Yep, projections take a lot of things into account and regression can be brutal for a young player. Usually, regression primarily slams to offensive value. Chas is getting hammered because he played LF last season a lot. FanGraphs has him as a 2-fWAR CF if prorating his CF projection to 600 PAs. This is with the projections regressing his defense by about a win for which half of it is likely solely due to him being used in LF (i.e., half his defensive regression is based on average defensive LF instead of a CF). He's on pace to crush his 2023 Preseason Projections.
It is very encouraging to see not just Altuve but also the other Hooks players appear to really embrace Gilbert and be excited for him. He may seem cocky but the way his teammates treat him makes me think his confidence is justified and he is still a good teammate.
Corpus is pretty crowded for now. Plus Dezenzo isn’t at 200 pa yet so there’s still a chance he’s not had to adjust yet or run into any luck regression. I think he’ll be promoted next month, or after the deadline at the latest.
35 games into Asheville's season and Zach Dezenzo is hitting over 400 (.404/.478/.606). Alright, I am impressed.
Do we really care? Poor defensive 3B become decent defensive 1B and his timeline shouldn’t be taking over for Bregman as a best case it should be taking over for Abreu. Or is the suspicion that he’s not even good enough to own a mitt and will have to completely bat his way on as a DH type?
It's not nothing. Bat first 1B/DH types really aren't that valuable. JD Davis's 2019 Mets season is a prime example. 137 wRC+ but only 2.5 fWAR cuz his value was dragged down by negative defensive value. Flip side, this year with the Giants he's got a 129 wRC+ but positive defensive numbers at 3B and he's on pace for a 4.5-5 fWAR season.
We know he can hit the ball hard as hell when he makes contact. And we know he can make adequate contact against lower level pitching. But there’s a decent chance his k rate will go way up when he moves up to AA. If he keeps his k rate <25% against AA pitching he will be a big time prospect. He will be an average defender at 3B, below average at 2B, well below average but still playable in an emergency at SS. He is big so in a few years he may need to move to 1B where he would probably be solid defensively. He could also handle LF if that’s where the need was. He’s made 5 errors in 50 games in the field in his pro career. His value will be determined by how well he can maintain his k/bb rates over his first 200 pa in Corpus later this year. He will definitely not be a DH only type.
Ideally he’s brooks Robinson, but ecstatic if he can give 120+ production at 1B. I guess I am just a chick that digs the longball.
I prefer OBP and the doubles train. But I'm not a chick. Perhaps that is why I was always more of a fan of Biggio than Bagwell.
History shows monster seasons in High A, especially by dudes in their 20s, aren’t necessarily great predictors of MLB success. Filter for the types of numbers Dezenzo is putting up, and you get a lot of names like Kody Hinze, Drew Ferguson, and Conrad Gregor. It is great that Dezenzo is having a breakout season, and he is definitely a prospect who should be on the radar, but we will have to wait until he gets to AA before we can really start to get excited about him and talking about him as a future core piece for the Astros.
Agree 100%. AA has always been the first real test for college bats. That's the level they're finally close to average league/prospect age. And the A+ leagues are usually slightly to very hitter friendly (e.g. Lancaster in the Cali league or Asheville in the Sally league). And this is just my theory, but I bet the reorganization of the minor leagues a few years ago (which eliminated the advanced rookie and short season A leagues) pushed even more raw players into A/A+ than ever before. Now prospects go from complex directly to A ball.
From last year: Like what’s been said already, if the dude can keep putting the ball in play he’s going to be good.
