What if Wemby unknowingly brings firearms to his friend which resulted in a murder, but based on investigation is not charged?
It's kind of a win win. If Amen falls, draft him. If Miller falls draft him. If Scoot falls to 3, trade up and grab him.
I don't think his mechanics look too bad in that recent video you're referring to. Before I would have said yeah, the shot is totally broken and may need to be rebuilt, now I'm thinking okay, maybe we have something where you can clean up some issues and it's workable. Remember, it's not like he needs to be a knockdown shooter. he just needs to keep defenders honest. Anyway, I don't have strong confidence he can fix his shot. I'd put it at 50% chance at best. What I believe is that philosophically we should not be taking safe, low-upside players right now. I think our approach should be "swing for the fences, take another shot at finding a franchise player". Whether we already have a guy (or guys) with that potential or not. We must find at least one superstar during this rebuild. We cannot settle for prospects with a near-zero chance at reaching that type of ceiling. Getting a player like that is the #1A, most important, highest-priority goal of any rebuild in my view. At #4, the guy with the highest chance to become a superstar is likely to be Amen Thompson. If we can get Scoot Henderson instead, great, do that. But I think there's a pretty high chance he won't be available to us by any reasonable means (short of a colossal overpay via trade).
If someone asks you to bring them their gun in code to a random spot ods re they know it's going to be used. Stay away from Miller.
Wemby is from France. He probably couldn't tell the difference between a firearm and a burnt baguette.
The narratives about Amen not being a good basketball player are not fair. Criticize his shooting all you want. Do keep in mind though that the OTE 3 point line IS the NBA line so there us that. Almost all of these good shooters in college come into the NBA and struggle. His struggles could look worse but he won’t necessarily be adjusting to the distance. and I think that being skeptical of his competition is absolutely fair but he played well and some of his skills were hip and abdomen above those folks. so I think there’s plenty to criticize and maybe trying to get a safe player or two this draft is the way to go BUT to say he has no skills is wrong. He is very skilled, he is an elite elite elite athlete but admittedly a poor shooter at this time. Id rather trade back and get Walker and Wallace or Black but I will be content with Amen and cheering for him.
Philosophically, we're not that far apart as in general, I agree with the idea that we need to find #1A and taking swings to make that happen. I think the difference is I don't want to take those hacks when I have very little confidence in them paying off. In that case you look at players who may not have the same upside but have better odds at being 1B or even #2 .... No, he doesn't have to be a knock down shooter, just good enough to keep defenses honest - but what percentage does he need to shoot to reach that? Westbrook at .311 isn't keeping them honest and that would be a ~8% improvement just getting from where he is currently to Westbrook level - which we know isn't enough. 8% is a pretty huge leap to make and to have to make that and at least half again .... that's expecting a miracle. I also think it's safe to say that he has known for at least 2 years that he needs to fix his shot and that he's been getting professional coaching for the last two years, yet it hasn't happened. This isn't Green / Sengun / Jabari who are 18 or 19 coming in wet behind the ears, he's 20 and been playing professionally for two years. Too much has to go right for this gamble to pay off, I'd rather take a guy with a little less upside but a much higher floor.
So in your mind Amen's inflated nos vs weakest competition ever just bumps him down from no 2 to no 4? That's not exactly a huge drop off since it's basically Wemby and everybody else. Ok so the other competitive teams do have Euro bigs....which you know the twins don't really go up against not to mention they are projected 2nd rounders next year? So who are the Twins matching up? Oh yeah random 16-17 nobodies, unless you count Jazian Gortman who is a 6'2 pg projected to go in the 2nd round or undrafted lol wtf. You say everybody knows the OTE is but your post just shows you really don't know. You even trying to argue they aren't 16 yr old but 19 yr olds...but the Twins are 20 right? So even in the best case Twins still had 1 more year over him. The Twins are the Luke Garza and Drew Timme of the OTE. You know these players lorded over the NCAA because they were seniors and had more training and development over everyone else. So the Twins are the same, not only are they the most athletically gifted they are also the most advanced and developed in the OTE. It makes going to rack a cinch since if you look at the highlights they tower over their defenders AND they're also insane athletically. That's not gonna happen in the NBA because even if their opponents are much less gifted than them, they have more experience and are more developed that's why their efficiency is so good. But in the NBA they go from most biggest bag to plastic bag, their opponents know all their moves and then some. I wouldn't be surprised if Amen has an abyssmal freshman year and gets called a bust, simply because he can't penetrate in the NBA ala Suggs. Everyone acting like Amen gonna be Ben SImmons outa the gate but Ben Simmons did his thing in the NCAA while Amen did his thing in the OTE. Big difference since Ben is one of the youngest players in NCAA while Amen is the oldest player in the entire OTE. My question is why do we need to take this rehab project on? It's crazy to me Amen is shooting so bad in OTE when he had 2 years to work on his shot. There's guys like Jarace Walker or Cam Whitmore available hell even Ausar is a better prospect cuz he needs less build up. Just limiting ourselves to pgs because we need a pg seems dumb to me, pgs are the most common commodity in the NBA how about we offer the max to Austin Reeves? Ok done, pg hole filled, and AR will do a better job playmaking the first couple of years than Amen Thompson.
Someone has to wisen up to the bullcrap that is OTE. Rockets might have to take the bullet so that all other teams can learn. So much crap being shuffled of a rank 30+ prospect becoming top 5 pick while playing high school basketball as 20 year olds against 15-17 year olds. It's straight up disgraceful how much crap you guys slurp up, whatever the media feed you. Remember the Jabari the savior (aka #1 pick) last year? Being forced to convince yourself that Paolo wasn't a bad consolation prize to be completely bamboozled by Orlando's masterful smokescreen.
Fair enough. I think we probably just have different assessments of Amen's likelihood of becoming a star. I'm really sold on the tools, just never seen a player like this since I started following the draft. I could be wrong, it's just a gamble I'm good with the Rockets taking. Let's be clear, OTE does not turn a player into a bad prospect. There is no causative effect there. It's possible that it may set back his development a little, but if a guy is going to be a good player, he will figure it out even if it takes a bit longer. And I don't think it's even totally clear that it will be a developmental setback. There are things about OTE that are more NBA-like (3-point line, spacing, exclusive focus on basketball) and things about it that are clearly worse than college (level of competition, less serious and competitive atmosphere, average age of players). Personally, I wish the Thompson twins had just gone to college or the G-League so we wouldn't be having this discussion. I think they would have performed well there and would probably still be in about the same draft position, perhaps even jumping ahead of Scoot and Miller. But I think all the arguments against them basically boil down to "they played in OTE and they are bad shooters". The former is kind of a weak take in my view. Teams primarily evaluate prospects based on scouting them in person and via tape. You can do that against any level of competition, you just have to be careful to mentally adjust for the level of play and think about how what you're seeing might translate against higher levels of play. Remember, some of the best players of all time were drafted straight out of high school.
Raw talent, athletic freak. If he can be like a Giannis, sure, but he’s undersized for not having the shooting ability. if he had a good defensive setup, he can be good but no all-star caliber player. I can’t fathom that this is really the 4th best prospect in the draft. I would really rather take chances at some shooters with real handles.
I am generally also hesitant to expect that shooting can be significantly improved when the underlying form is broken, but Lonzo Ball definitely proved me wrong before, and conversely, Jabari Smith this year showed that great mechanics and work ethic don't guarantee success either. There is absolutely a point where sheer athleticism and physicality can make up for a broken jumpshot. While current day Westbrook is definitely a liability, prime Westbrook is everything you can hope for out of a top 5 lottery pick. Even during his one year in Houston, they managed to make it work while he was shooting 26% from 3, simply through scheme and fitting personnel around the skillset. Ja Morant was even worse than Westbrook this year from 3, and the Grizzlies did just fine. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was down at 30% last year before dramatically cutting back his attempts. De'Aaron Fox has exactly one year of shooting better than 32% from 3, and John Wall in his prime was right around 32% as well. Even Ben Simmons before his injuries piled up and his mental health overtook his career was extremely effective without any semblance of an outside game. Is this a recipe for career longevity? Probably not, and perhaps Amen Thompson falls off a cliff as soon as he is less than one of the 5 or 10 best athletes in the league. But the Rockets should not be worried what he looks like after 30, they should be concerned about what he can give them in the first 9 years of his career during his rookie contract and his first extension. I think the last point on Amen Thompson is how much you buy into the idea that the Rockets already have the pieces in place, and can settle for floor over ceiling. I personally think that the Rockets are going to be much closer to keeping their 2024 pick via top-4 protection than they are going to be competing for a play-in spot, and if they lose that pick to the Thunder, will very likely be tanking in 2025 to keep their pick in the top-10. The Mavericks had both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, and still couldn't make the play-in. The Rockets don't even have a single player who has shown that potential yet, and need to keep swinging until they at least get one.
some of the best players of all time were drafted straight out of high school, but Amen will be 21 in January of his rookie year and was playing against a bunch of high school aged kids…it was man amongst boys
it’s not just the lack of 3 point shooting with Amen, he has zero midrange game and sucks at the free throw line as well prime Russ used to be able to hit a midrange jumper and shoot over 80% from the line…the Rockets had to go to extremes to make it work with him in Houston, and he was ultimately a huge liability in the playoffs because he wasn’t being guarded and is useless without the ball in his hands Ja at least has a floater De’Arron Fox has a great floater and midrange game Shai is excellent from midrange and is more than capable of knocking down threes
Amen needs to work on his floaters and set shot. He will need a year to work with a shooting coach. He has played against professional oversea teams and did very well.
