Lance is a perfect 2023 starting pitcher. He needs fewer innings and on a strict routine. Start - no more than 18 hitters 2 days off Bullpen 2 days off Start - no more than 18 hitters. He would likely be very effective but it would be in fewer starts and innings than a full season and would require a 6 man rotation.
He forgot about our best weapon out of the pen! Abreu is undoubtedly the 8th inning guy in my mind. On a normal game, I'd go Neris/Abreu/Pressley. If Abreu and Pressley have the day off like they did on Monday night, it was nice to see us go Montero/Stanek/Neris to get the job done. It seems Dusty likes to use Maton in the 5th or 6th after our starter starts having some issues losing command and leaves a couple runners on base.
The question I have is do the Astros have a good enough rotation to win the World Series? My thoughts are that they need at least 1 SP that is a true ace and 2 more that are #2 level or better and a 4th that is #3 or better. To me a true ace is more than a #1 ( top 30 of 30 teams). His percentage stats are all star Cy Young contending level who gives over 6 innings consistently. That would be top 7-8 starters in the a league, or about top 15 in MLB. A #2 is a guy who is unquestionably top 60. He may not be Cy Young calibur but would likely be a #1 on a non contending team and frequently has great games and rarely has bad games. He can be counted on for 5+ innings 90% of the time including going through a lineup a 3rd time. A #3 guy will be top 90. He will rarely go over 6 innings and may occasionally not even make 5. He is a bit more inconsistent and the team decides if he is done after twice through the lineup. 75% of the time he will be quite good for 15-18 batters but 25% of the time he has high pitch high traffic high stress innings and ends up with short outings. I see Framber as an unquestioned ace and Javier as a true #2. Brown is a #3 with #2 or even ace potential but probably can't be expected to be that this post season. McCullers is probably a #3 if healthy. Urquidy is probably a #4- more consistent than a #3 but with less impact "stuff" needed in the playoffs and less likely to be effective 5 or more or even 4 innings. A good hitting team could feast on him a 2nd time through the lineup much less the 3rd. My eyes tell me a Verlander or Grienke type trade is needed to get this team to World Series favorite. The question is: Do they give up 3+ top prospects in a weak system to get that guy, or roll with what they have expecting to be even better in the future but maybe not win this year?
Considering he hurt himself again warming up for spring training… not sure a bullpen stint is the panacea either. He likely benefits more from a routine… set days off… set days to prepare for his next start, etc. Doesn’t work like that for the bullpen guys.
MLB hitters so far have put Hunter Brown in the Top 30 pitchers in the game by not hitting him. Steamer has him as the 38th best pitcher. ZiPS has him at 44th. FanGraphs using ZiPS and Steamer for rate stats along with manually predicting IP has him as 40th best pitcher. It really only took the projections to think he would be used as a starter mostly for his projections to rise (i.e., The Astros tandem system in the minors confused them on his role in the majors). He's currently 7th in GB% and 28th in K%. Health provided, it is really hard not to be a Top 60 pitcher when you are striking a lot of batters and when they do make contact, they hit it on the ground (88% of pitcher seasons that have K%>25% and GB>50% end up in the Top 60 of fWAR in their respective season from 2017-2022). I'm pretty confident in his GB% remaining above 50%. His K% will depend on him being able to get strikes with either his fastball or his slider without those pitches ended up as well stroke balls too often. Garcia missed the Top 60 in fWAR for SPs by a smidge last season. I think right now the data supports treating Brown as a Top 60 pitcher (i.e., better than Garcia in a down year). Edit: I typically think No. 2s are the ~12th-~30th best SPs. And No. 3 starters as ~30th-60th best SPs. I'd call Hunter Brown a No. 3 by those definitions.
I'm much, much, much more worried about the hitting with this team than the pitching, especially now with Brantley's setback. The team has an abysmal 89 wRC+, placing the team towards the bottom of the league for position player WAR. The position players have arguably performed worse than any other group in the division, including the hapless A's. A productive Altuve will help, but he's not going to solve that problem particularly when the guy he's replacing is 5th among position players in WAR. I don't know what the Astros can even do to fix this problem besides praying that the current group simply performs better. Maldy is not going anywhere. Abreu is not going anywhere. Maybe they can trade for a corner outfielder to replace Brantley but that's probably not going to help much either.
Yeah- I think that's fair when you are talking about a contending team and I think it makes sense. On a championship caliber team: Ace is a dude that gets Cy Young Votes #2 is a guy that's an all star or at least a "snub" that people talk about as deserving #3 is someone that throws decent amount of innings and has an era plus of 115 or 120 I think. #4 starter in the playoffs is a guy, to me, that you trust to see 18 hitters and make it 4 innings or so and give up 2 or less against a good lineup before turning the game over to the bullpen. I'm completely comfortable with Framber, Javier, Brown and LMJ if healthy filling these rolls in the playoffs just fine.
Well, considering I have done bullpen work in my summer leagues and started games. I can tell you with over a decade of pitching experience that there is a huge difference between throwing in 15-20 pitch events in back to back days vs 80-100 in one sitting. It's not even remotely in the same league in regards to arm fatigue. There is a reason you can throw the next day with live bullets. Lance's arm is late and more late. He will always have arm issues. Its not something you can just change by the way. He is already wild with a habit hes formed since he was a kid. It is what it is.
A Maldy injury would be really helpful for the lineups performance- because he's not getting out of there any way other than that. Brantley should be considered done. Bregman has been unlucky and will get better just due to that. Tucker has been even more unlucky than anyone else. Chas being healthy turns what had been an offensive weakness into a strenght. This team- with Altuve healthy, should be above average at LF (yordan) CF (Chas) RF (Tucker) 3B, 2b. It should be average at SS It will be abysmal at Catcher (but could be average with a Maldy injury) 1b you'd hope Abreu could become "bad as Yuli in 2022" someday, but he's not even close to that. IF DH is basically whatever regular isn't playing while Dubon subs for him, or Dubon, you'd figure DH would be a league average-ish type position. I don't think there is a ton to worry about in the lineup other than how Dusty chooses to fill it out.
I'm pretty sure Bregman and Tucker will play better. Chas has gotten some BABIP luck this season, but he's starting to have more hard hit balls. His plate discipline looks a lot better (especially on identifying sliders out of the zone). Chas and Meyers should be able to make CF a plus as well as provide some value, even if not optimal, in a corner. I think Diaz has had some bad BABIP luck. Even with his plate discipline issues, once the balls start finding some grass and/or bleachers, he's going to play more (in my opinion, the underlying stats should be getting him more action already). Probably not much at catcher while Dusty is the manager. Abreu (if he doesn't get his **** together) and Brantley, if he gets healthy, would likely lose time to Diaz. I think the lineup should be fine if Altuve is hitting well and Diaz is playing somewhere (and his wOBA is simialr to his current xwOBA). Limiting the lineup to one really bad bat at most is crucial.
If Abreu, and the offense as a whole is still stumbling around as we near the trade deadline I can't imagine Crane and Brown will continue allowing Maldy and Abreu to run out there. As long as the rest of team is playing well enough I think they're content to let the starters have their limp bat warm blanky behind the plate just so as not to rock the boat. The boat will need rocking if the offense is still struggling and like a lot of others I think the pitchers will be just fine once they are forced to throw to a different guy. The question would become, if we do make a trade for a Salvador Perez (or Diaz starts lighting it up), will Dusty give him the starting job or will they have to remove Maldonado from the equation altogether to make it happen. Likewise, a LF/1B/DH option isn't terribly hard to add at the deadline if Abreu has to be removed from the everyday equation. We have a guy in Diaz who may be an option to upgrade both positions, but with his usage we're aren't gonna have any clue as to how good he actually is until we're really close to the deadline. Even then he probably won't have enough PA to really trust as a primary October option even if he has started to hit.
If nothing else I’d like them to move McCullers to the bullpen because it’s less devastating when he gets hurt. Replacing your closer or setup man is WAY easier than replacing your #3 starter. Brown is looking like the kind of pitcher you feel plenty confident can win you Game 3 of a playoff series. Combined with Framber and Javier, I don’t think adding a ToR SP is an imperative. And looking at France, McCullers, and Urquidy, I don’t think adding a depth starter is necessary unless there’s a new injury or France starts to look inept.
I agree, playing Diaz enough over the next 60 days to figure out how good he is seems like an imperative. The shortest/cheapest path to fixing the lineup is to play Diaz and fix Abreu. Either way I do think they will need to add either a catcher or a 1B/LF/DH type to supplement things.
I think if the Astros trade for a catcher, the other team is going to have to take Maldy even if the Astros have to throw in an extra prospect to move him.
I agree, and it would be a shame. Despite my frequent criticism of him, I think he has a lot of value on this team. He just doesn't hit enough to justify anything more than backup duty.
I agree regarding Brown. My thought process is mostly about his inexperience and potential innings reductions. He still has some command lapses ind inconsistency. Just trying to be realistic and not a homer, lol. I fully expect him to fill one of the top 3 spots starting next year. I just think the team is better this year with him as the #4
I don't know if Brown even has the stones for something like that. It seems like Click got cross with Dusty and look what happened to him.
I don't think projections think he's going to be great due to their homer nature. On innings limitations, he threw 130 innings last season. That should put him in the 160-170 inning range this season. The Astros going to a 6-man rotation at some point or giving him a short breather should be all he needs. On command issues, he's been hitting his spots. The ump just isn't calling him fairly. I'm much more worried about how his stuff plays over the plate than I am in walks.
Doesn't hurt that Dusty was right and they won a World Series with Maldy catching and leading the best pitching staff in the league. And that all of the best pitchers the Astros have had the past 5 years have wanted Maldy to catch them (Cole, Verlander, Framber).
He has started 8 games. 4 of those he pitched less than 5 innings and allows 9 or more baserunners. Like I said growing pains are causing inconsistency which is why he is a better #4 starter than #3 starter for the playoffs. Maybe he develops consistency and it becomes a non issue but it's a tough bet to count on it.
