2023 Astros Minor League Thread

Whitcomb is starting to Whitcomb though. Starts out hot and you think he's turned a corner then he gets into a slump he never recovers from. Hopefully the drop in strikeouts is real but I need to see him put together a full consistent year otherwise he's going to be another AAAA player

 

Whitcomb has an 824 ops in May with a 9:5 k:bb ratio and that k rate is 27% for the month. He’s hit 2 HR this month as well. K rate is a little higher than you’d like but not a meltdown by any stretch. I’m getting pretty excited about him. 8 HR in 113 pa is awesome. A guy who pops 25 HR while playing middle infield is a very valuable player even if he posts a 30% k rate.

 

The reality is 95% of all players in the minors have a ceiling of AAAA player.

If the Astros currently have 2 future MLB regulars at AA (much less 6) they are above the curve.

 

I still think Gordon will play.

 

Whitcomb’s situation points to a bigger idea I have about guys who came into the system from 2019-2021 (and to a lesser degree, 2022): that covid year could have had a MAJOR impact on these prospects evaluation and development.

Guys from 2019 (Lee, Kessinger, Barber, Stubbs, Plumlee) were probably evaluated normally prior to being drafted, but losing an entire season could have completely thrown them off their development track and required a long time for them to get back on track. So their stats from this season should probably carry a more outsized weight when compared to prior seasons (but draft position/bonus should still be kept in mind as a meaningful metric).

Guys from 2020 (Daniels, Whitcomb, Santos, Brown, Dirden) lost the majority of one of the most crucial periods for evaluation, then lost half a season of development. So they might have been totally under or overdrafted, and they might also be behind in development given they didn’t start in pro ball until half a season later.

Guys from 2021 (and to a lesser degree 2022) could have been misevaluated given they missed what is likely the most important year in college/HS ball for pro teams to draw up their board.

All that is to say that once some of the position players get to 200+ pa this season, I will weigh those stats a LOT heavier than any other season and discount their draft status compared to their 2023 numbers. And especially for the guys in AA since it is typically a pretty accurate proving ground for hitters of appropriate age. Loperfido, Wagner, Whitcomb, Barber, Corona, and Gilbert all could be big time prospects to me despite entering the year with dramatically different rankings and pedigrees.

That concept also applies to international signees (Leon being the prime example, but also some of the other guys who probably were slow coming out of the complex leagues: Lorenzo, Balogh, Cruz, Espinosa).

 

If his k rate was 19% instead of 26%, he’d be getting massive hype. Even still, 26% is not a dealbreaker for a guy hitting the ball that hard, because he will likely sustain a high babip to go with his healthy walk rate. I would like to see him work his k rate to below 25% before moving up to AA. But once he gets to corpus if he posts anything close to the numbers he’s putting up in High A, he will be a big time prospect. Which is good considering how shallow the system is at 3B.

 

Trivia : he and Trey Mancini have the exact same given name: Joseph Anthony Mancini III.

 

The Deury Carrasco pitching experiment continues to be a pretty solid success. He hasn't walked a batter since his first appearance and is striking out 33% of hitters with a whopping 76% GB rate.

Joey Mancini had pretty pedestrian college numbers, the Astros might have found themselves a steal.

The Astros promoted Luis Perez to Fayetteville the other day. He's a 20 year old OF who has stolen 15+ bags and hit 3 HRs each of the last two years on the complex. Could be an interesting prospect.

 

Pedantic but you probably mean same exact full name.

Same given name means they're both named Joseph.

 

Thanks.

I was thinking "given name" instead of nickname but you are right.

 

Dirden is batting close to 1.000 OPS over the last month. Looks like he's back to his power hitting ways

 

Most fans make the mistake of treating these guys like robots, but think about it through Dirden's perspective, after battling injuries and setbacks for your entire collegate and professional career, you rake in every level of the minors and rocket your way to AAA from low-A in only two years, which you have to considering your age and all the setbacks if you ever want to become a viable major leaguer.

You break into the ST roster with the major league team, hit the **** out of the ball, then see you've been passed over for a dude who's years older, and never hit as well at any level of the minors as you did. A guy who arguably made the team out of ST because of his alma mater.

For all the talk about "Ignoring distractions", something like that has to be a gut punch for a dude on the cusp of potentially generational wealth, glad to see Dirden having an insane may (got his OPS up to .857 as of today, a number still higher than any season Julks managed at any level in the system),

 

I'm a big Dirden fan. Considering he's only had like 300 games of baseball as an adult, he's doing pretty well. I think the organization thinks highly of him also, but thinks he needs more seasoning around recognizing pitches and his approach. I see him being called up this season because of Brantley's inflammation.