What is your current Rockets Top 5 Draft Big board?

I have Ausar at 7 and Walker at 8. Wallace is a bit better than Black.

 

I read on here someone describing whitmore's game and that he doesn't really pass and has tunnel vision. If that's true I don't think that would be the best guy for the rockets. maybe i just have post season ptsd from eason and christopher though

 

My question to clutchfans is do you see anyone in this draft outside of Wemby and Scoot that you would bump into the starting lineup over anyone currently on the roster or even bump ahead of others currently in the rotation? Hypothetically if we land #3 - #6, is one of those guys better in your mind then the guys below?

Are there other points guards (other than Scoot) that are better than TyTy?
Are there Shooting Guards better than Green, Porter and Christopher?
Are there Small Forwards better than Martin and Eason?
Are there Power Forwards better than Jabari, Eason, Garuba?
Are there Centers (outside of Wemby) better than Sengun?

Essentially, you know you're getting a generational talent at Point Guard or Center with Scoot or Wemby. Can anyone else in this draft top our current talent anywhere?

 

Can someone explain to me why jarrace Walker is rated so high? I watched a couple of UH games this year and wasn’t impressed with him .. I have seen people rate him in the top 5

 

He can guard 1-5. Monster defensive player.
And, on the offense side has more than a little Julius Randle in him.

 

This is the real question we should be asking. Answer is No one knows. We don’t know what we really have on our current roster because they were oddly used and lack of detail and no true structure. How the players respond to the new coaching is an unknown, too. Also in know is what our new coach values. It is a fair but hard to answer question because we are in transition. Black, Walker, Hendricks and Wallace seem rotation worthy because of their defensive skills. The team as a whole is transitioning. With everything going on nothing is a given. Does Smith come back bigger maybe even 5 or quicker maybe a 3? Garuba is anyone to watch.

 

Yes he is tunnel vision but I believe away from the college game Whitmore
is going to take off and expand his game. With Ime who stresses passing
and making the extra pass.....he should do fine.

It's much like what I expected from Mathurin except ime would have Mathurin
passing more.

Another one who was held in check by the college game was Dereck
Lively.....NBA will be more open and he should do better than his
Duke numbers exhibited.

Whitmore needs to also become a more consistent shooter. But the power
he brings can somewhat match that of LeBron, who also needed to work
on his shooting coming into the league. Whitmore not the passer of LeBron
but has the potential to pass. Yes there is only one LeBron, but that one
LeBron might play until he is 44 like a Tom Brady. Still drive and spinning
off the defender.....LeBron cuts through Jabari, Tari like paper.....he will
also do that through Brandon Miller, Amen, Hendricks, and Wallace.etc.

 

Whitmore is interesting. I've dropped him a bit on my draft board because after watching more of his game he is seeming a bit too one-dimensional. I can easily see him being a Rudy Gay type of player who needs the ball in his hands to do anything but isn't efficient enough to justify it.

But it's worth remembering that he's one of the youngest players in this draft class. He will still be 18 on draft day. You could argue he has more room to grow his game than some other guys, and you might not be wrong. He also might have more room for physical growth for the same reason, in both height and (very likely) strength, which considering he's already stronger than most college players, is intriguing.

I wouldn't hate taking him if we land #6. He definitely has some upside.

 

Mostly skipped this thread, so catching up now.

My board isn't too different from others, though I put them more on tiers than a strict ordered ranking:

Wemby

Scoot

Amen - has elite skills (first step, "feel"', size), seemingly good work ethic, but huge concerns about shooting and ote competition. Might take time and commitment before he starts to shine, but arguably a higher ceiling than Scoot.
Whitmore - offers versatility and physicality on defense, seems competent on offense (shooting, cutting, finishing, etc), still pretty young, but yeah has bbiq/shot selection/passing/playmaking concerns. I do think he could essentially fill the KJ role and generally do a good job without much more improvement (though let's hope he does improve greatly)
Miller - I was feeling a bit low on him, but dug into more videos yesterday, and yeah he's.... really good. I'm still weary of using 3pt numbers for a college sharpshooter playing in Alabama, but assuming most of those things translate, he should be able to start at SF and provide an impact right away. I worry that he might not end up super elite, but otherwise don't see a lot of weaknesses (besides needing to get stronger, learn NBA defense, etc)
Hendricks - I don't think his ceiling is super high, but he seems to have all the skills the rockets really need (shooting, versatility, rim protection/running, etc). Unless I misjudged him, seems like he'd work very well with Sengun, though even if you move Sengun, his skills would still be very valuable.


First two tiers are obvious (I think Scoot is in his own tier). The 3rd tier is where things get interesting. I've essentially ordered them from most potential/least ready (based on my opinion). I don't really have a strong preference as it just depends on how Rockets want to do things. Miller is arguably the most ready and most skilled, though you could also get a Cam Johnson/Grant Williams/etc in free agency, so maybe he's not as valuable (or maybe you flip that argument so you don't have to pursue those free agents). I'd be fine with any of them at 3, though realistically someone like Hendricks might be a reach there. Probably not realistic, but trading down to get those Orlando picks and using one for Hendricks would be nice. Though rockets would probably prefer to get their Shane Battier if they trade this pick.

I could see an argument to throw Ausar in that same group, but I'm not quite there. I'm not big on Jarace Walker (at least for the Rockets). Still looking at some other guys, but not sure it changes things much.

I haven't done of research on Cason Wallace due to his likely draft range. This might have been done already (just link to it and call me a dummy if so), but can someone compare TyTy and Cason? The latter does seem better, but I'm worried the difference isn't significant. I know TyTy was highly rated by some last year and kinda fell to the Rockets.

I should point out I'm a terrible scout and evaluator of talent. So take this all with a grain of salt.

 

It’s Wemby
Scoot
Amen
Jarace
Miller for me

 

It's based on potential. He's flashed a lot of skills in different areas, but currently he's not elite (or even really good) at any single thing.

He's a big body but he's not a real high twitch athlete. He's certainly not a bad athlete either, he's just not one of the uber athletic guys. Hendricks from rival UCF is a better athlete. Definitely an NBA athlete though.

Walker's biggest advantage is mentally. He sees the floor and processes the plays very quickly. Defensively, he doesn't have the foot speed to stay in front of smaller quick players. What he does really well is anticipate plays and gets to the right spot. He's very good on closing out on shooters because he understands where to be and let's face it, UH puts a very high priority on defense so he practices it a lot. Most of his shot blocks come from the weakside because he anticipates and makes the correct rotation to be in position to help. He gets steals by anticipating where the ball is going to go.

To me, the best skill that he's shown is his passing. The top 3 or 4 passes made by UH last season were likely all throw by Walker. He sees the floor very well. Some of his passes were truly special - for instance he was thrown an off target alley-oop and he had the awareness to tip it out to an open 3 point shooter. I'd never seen that before. That being said, he still only averaged 1.8 assists per game. For most of his skills, he'd make some high level plays and then other times he'd disappear.

Shooting wise, he was up and down. He had games where he was money from behind the arc and he showed a little drop step turnaround from midrange. Other games he couldn't hit shots. He does handle the ball well for a big body guy. He can put it on the floor and drive but he doesn't finish well at the rim. Not sure his final numbers but towards the end of the season he was below 50% on finishing at the rim on non-dunks. Right now, he tends to rely on his floater when driving rather than getting all the way to the hoop. He usually tried to avoid contact but really he should be initiating contact, drawing fouls and taking advantage of his strength. Same story here, he showed potential on offense but bottom line is that he shot 46.5% from the floor, 34.7 from behind the arc and he had an inefficient 53.4 TS%.

Similar story with rebounding. He had some really good rebounding games and other games not so good. If he starts using his strength to bang inside a little more then I'd think that his rebounding would improve. He averaged 6.8 rebounds which is less than a player of his skill level and size should average in the AAC.

To be fair to Walker, offensively, UH played him on the perimeter (behind the arc) way more than then should have. That took away some of his effectiveness. He was most effective in the high post, but he just didn't spend that much time there.

All reports are that Walker is a great kid, hard worker and extremely coachable. Sampson said that he was the most coachable player that he's ever had. He also came to Houston knowing that he would get coached hard by Sampson. Many high rated recruits wouldn't want to subject themselves to that but he was all about getting better.

The guy that Walker reminds me of is Karl Malone. Similar body type at that age and he's a smart player just like Malone. Malone wasn't an elite athlete but he was a great defender because of his strength, great hands and his understanding of the game. Walker has all of those traits (he even shoots the same little turnaround as Malone). I don't think Walker will turn into a body builder as Malone did but he's a really strong kid, he just needs to start using that strength to push some people around.

Because he was so up and down, it's not hard to understand why you weren't impressed if you only saw him a couple of times. You likely happened to see the games where he wasn't a factor. There were other games though where he was the best player on the floor - most notably the Virginia game.

The difference between Walker and some of the other top picks is most of those guys already have a skill where they're elite or really good. Walker doesn't have that. Amen Thompson has amazing athleticism and he's got great court vision, the question with him is simple - "Will he learn to shoot"? With Walker, you don't know if he'll ever become elite at any single skill but he's got the potential to be really good in most all areas of the game.

 

With those possibilities looming, we look at the players most likely to be selected with the picks the Rockets could claim on lottery night. (Scouts were given anonymity to speak freely with their assessments of players.)

No. 6: Jarace Walker
Position: Forward
Height: 6-8
College: Houston
Age: 19
Comp: Paul Millsap, Larry Johnson

Overview
Predictions about the player chosen sixth will vary greatly and likely change often prior to the draft. More than with the top picks, it could also be influenced by the needs of the team that will pick sixth. A wide variety of players (including Anthony Black, Cam Whitmore, Taylor Hendricks, Gradey Dick, and others who could move up or down) could be worthy of the sixth pick.

Walker is an especially intriguing prospect with plenty of room to grow and a strong foundation from his lone season playing for Kelvin Sampson at UH. He is not a good fit for the Rockets, who drafted players at his position — Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason — last season.

If the Rockets get the sixth pick and view Walker as the best player available, it will be an interesting test of whether they will draft for need or choose another power forward. In those circumstances, they also could look to move the pick, regardless of their evaluation of Walker or the other players available for the team choosing sixth.

Walker has the tools to be an elite defensive player if he develops the switching ability that seems possible for him. He could also be more productive offensively in the NBA than with the Cougars. He is such a deft finisher that Walker could benefit from NBA spacing. But he is also expected to expand his shooting range to be a threat on corner 3s or even in pick-and-pop situations.

Defensively, he fits the mold of current big men, potentially able to switch on the perimeter, disrupt in passing lanes, and be physical inside.

Scout’s eye view
“NBA ready body and still looks really young. He’s a 19-year-old kid in a man’s body, so he doesn’t really realize the advantage with his size yet. He’ll be able to use his strength advantage much better than he has so far.

“He is very coachable, and when Kelvin Sampson says something like that, it says a lot. He can put it on the floor a little bit and drive, attack a close-out. He has good shot mechanics. He can make corner 3s. I think his shooting will hit. But he can also attack the close-out and drive from the 3-point line. He can drive to the mid-post and get a shot, or he can get all the way to the rim. He has a little jump hook as well.

“I think he’s going to be a little bit better offensively in the NBA than he showed (in college).

“On the defensive end, he’s going to need his foot speed and his lateral movement in order to be switchable, but I think that will come. As he gets older, that’ll improve. I think he’ll be able to hold his own with that strength that he has.”

 

I don't necessarily agree with the assessment that Walker is a bad fit. Kind of a surface-level analysis from Feigen (which is nothing new from him). In today's positionless NBA, it's clear to me that Tari and Jabari are both combo forwards. Walker, for me, is a PF/C with his big body and 7'2" wingspan. He would float between the 4 and backup 5, perhaps backing up both those positions, while Tari would get minutes primarily at the 3 for now. He does fill a big need for us, in any case: We could really use a switchable, rim-protecting defensive player.

 

This is exactly the right way to be looking at this, and I think the answer is yes in a lot of cases. I'll go through them position by position:

I'm very high on Cason Wallace, and think he is a better prospect than Tyty. I'd definitely target him for a trade up. There's some other good prospects too that might be able to beat out Tyty, but Cason is the only one I'm confident would.

Probably not better than Green and probably not more talented than KPJ, but I do like Hawkins over Christopher. Great movement shooter and an underrated athlete.

I'm super high on Eason and lower than most on Brandon Miller, so I'll say probably not.

There are several really promising power forwards in this draft. I'm huge Jarace Walker guy, and I think Taylor Hendricks looks very promising. Either of those guys would be better than Garuba and might give Jabari and Eason a run for their money as well. But I'm not confident they would, so I wouldn't make going after them a priority. However, I'd happily take Jarace if we don't get a top two pick and a good trade isn't able to be found. Jarace is versatile enough to play the 3, 4, or 5, so he'd be able to get his minutes along side our other young front court players.

Side note, I think Wemby is going to come into the league as more of a PF, and probably take at least 4 or 5 years before he transitions to center. That aside, I don't see any centers better than Sengun, but there are some interesting prospects in the draft that could be good backups for Sengun. The ones I am most interested in are Lively and Adem Bona.

 

I think he went with the obvious assessment of the team having starting PF/C. With Jabari being the assumed 4. With your assessment, are you saying that Walker wouldn't start and be a bench contributor or are you saying put Jabari at the 3? Or something like getting rid of Sengun/him coming off the bench?

 

If we didn't acquire anybody in free agency/trade and just ran it back with Walker as the draft pick, I would start Tari at the 3, Jabari at the 4, and Sengun at the 5. Walker would back up both the 4 and the 5 and would get about 28-30 minutes a game with Jabari and Sengun playing full starter's minutes.

 

I see. I believe outside of Amen, any of the other top 5 picks would start immediately because they have the talent needed and fit a positional need. Jarace doesn't exactly have the positional need part covered. It could be argued that Scoot wouldn't start because we have our own Scoot, but that's crazy talk. Wemby obviously. Miller would start at the 3 as long as he can play defense. Amen? Blah. I'm not sure using a top 6 pick on a bench guy (unless you think he could potentially be the starter at some point) is a great use of a pick. However, we are in a position where we've had so many high picks, that I'm not sure if we could draft a starter at the 6th pick. Who knows. Good discussion though.

 

I mean, if it's a bench guy playing around 30 minutes a game you're still getting plenty of value right? Doesn't mean he's not a starting caliber player, just means you've got slightly too much of a good thing. Anyway, that's more minutes than Sengun played this season. Almost as many as Jabari. For a rookie, you don't usually like to run them out there too much anyway, their conditioning isn't ready for the grind of a full NBA season playing 36 minutes a game.

In any case, I'm just thinking in terms of next season, not saying Walker could never start for us. If it turns out that Walker is head and shoulders above our other guys, we can always figure something out a year down the road to get him a starting role, whether that's a trade, moving Jabari to the 3, whatever makes sense.

 

I understand your point, but I'm not sure using a top 6 pick on a guy that can't play end of games for us because Jabari can't effectively play the 3 (hypothetically) is a good idea. Creates playing time issues. Who finishes games, etc. Honestly, if you're going to go this route, you have to have an idea that you're going to trade Sengun at some point in the next few years. However, if he's the best guy left on the board and you can't find great value for your pick, then you take him and let Udoka figure it out.

 

I think people talk about Walker in such rosy terms. Reminds me of Garuba in that way, except obviously Jarace is a better prospect. Assuming his upside case is his base case.

Like, you say Jarace is a rim protecting switchable big — yeah, the best version he could develop into is. But he’s not that yet, and doesn’t have any standout NBA skills today. He was not great at switching onto quick players this year, and gets some help side blocks but is definitely not a primary rim protector in an NBA lineup. Hendricks is a much better rim defender prospect for example.

Jarace has an ok shot, ok passing, ok handle, ok athlete. Not great anywhere except his archetype being appealing.

My upside comp for him is a smaller Bam Adebayo with less switchability. Is that player great? Or is he just a functional starter? I think the latter.