What is your current Rockets Top 5 Draft Big board?

Why does floor matter even a little bit with our pick?

We have 5-6 young guys on our roster who I think we can confidently project to land somewhere between the 20th - 200th best players in the league in their prime years. I.e., somewhere from solid rotation player to high-end starter/low-end all-star.

If anything, we have a surplus of that level of prospects to the point where adding more to the mix generates diminishing returns -- the 5th, 6th, 7th of those guys can't get developmental prioritization or enough shine to maximize trade value.

Adding another one by drafting a high-floor, mid-ceiling player in a Jarace (or Black or Cason etc.) just feeds into that issue.

As a thought exercise, if you knew for certain Amen had a 10% chance of developing into a top 10 player, and a 90% chance of being out of the league in 3 years, would you take him over a Jarace who you knew 100% would be a Jarred Vanderbilt level player immediately and for 10-12 years? or a bigger Lu Dort / Josh Hart?

IMO, the 10% chance at a superstar is the slam dunk choice. I think many on this board disagree and want the sure thing.

 

I'm pretty much with you, like I said. I like the upside play here. Swing for the fences. Increases the odds that we get a true franchise-changing superstar out of our collection of draft picks.

However, I can at least see the argument for taking a safe, great defensive player if you are particularly high on our current crop of prospects and feel like we already have a star or two who is close to having a huge breakout season. Which I don't think is totally unreasonable--Green and Sengun in particular have shown flashes of that kind of potential. I'm just not certain about them as of yet, so yeah, I want to keep taking shots.

 

Yeah, I'm still high on our guys having all-star potential if some things break right.

But I'm not particularly high that we have anyone with superstar / top 20 player potential though. I think we have to be ruthless about that to avoid building a first- or second-round exit team.

IMO, a championship level version of the future Rockets has fully developed Jalen, Sengun, and Jabari as complementary stars or starters. The most valuable thing in the world to us is finding someone who can be a #1 guy. There's none in free agency this year, none next year, none in the draft next year, and none likely available via trade anytime soon. The only players available to us in the near future with nonzero #1 guy equity are Wemby, Scoot, and Amen.

 

Amen is hard to judge because he played in that awful league and apparently is a poor shooter. Choosing between he and Walker at 4 is a difficult call imo. I’m a UH guy but also would understand swinging for the fences with Amen, so just hoping we get top two so it’s a moot point

 

I agree, it’s Bridges and I think we get can get him before the deadline for the Nets picks plus some combo of KJM, Tate and the other bench fodder, maybe even Tari. Nets will ask for the world at first, but when its apparent they are lottery bound the pressure to tank will become real.

 

Contrary to popular belief, teams do not have to spend up to the salary floor. There's a penalty for not doing so and that's paying out the difference between your salary and the salary floor among the players on your roster.

 

But if you are going to have to fork over the money anyway, why not give it to a player that can help you win? Any team that just gives that money to the league is mismanaging their cap. Even if you are tanking, take salary from another team along with a pick.

 

Taylor Hendricks guys. He’s a perfect Udoka guy. 6’9” with a 7’2” wingspan. Outstanding defender, natural instinct for shot blocking, impeccable defensive timing u can’t teach, and super switchy. He’s also an excellent long range shooter. This guy will be a top 5 pick. With Jabari, Tari and Hendricks you have the 4/3 locked up for a long time without having to spend big money on Cam Johnson (restricted) or Grant Williams (restricted, and not playing much so far in the playoffs btw).

you heard it here first (well I think MedicineN’Music also likes him). Hendricks will be a top 5 pick.

 

Nahhh no one in this draft is worth even considering unless it’s Victor. Because they will not help next season. Even though the Rockets could consolidate assets on the team and package with other assets (ya know to actually create playing time for a free agent…), trade the Clippers pick, have all of the nets assets to trade until 2027, have the most cap space in the league. That’s not enough because next season a 2023 pick will likely not be a net positive, every season after that be damned.

heyo!! @DaDakota

 

Celtics after swapping Cowens for Fitch: 29-53 to 61-21.
Celtics from Carr to Pitino: 15-67 to 36-46.
Bulls from Motta to Badger: 24-58 to 44-38.
Nets from Loughery/MacKinnon to Brown: 24-58 to 44-38.
Cavs from Lucas/Smart to Silas the Elder: 17-65 to 35-47.
Mavs from Buckner to Motta: 13-69 to 36-46.
Warriors from Karl to Nelson: 20-62 to 43-39.
Rockets from Harris to Fitch: 14-68 to 29-53.
Lakers from Harris/Rambis to Jackson: 31-19 to 67-15.
Heat from Riley to Spoelstra: 15-67 to 43-39.
Bucks from Drew to Kidd: 15-67 to 41-41.
76ers from Loughery to Shue: 9-73 to 25-57.
Wizards from Hamilton to Collins: 19-63 to 37-45.

Now sure, you can pick some of these apart--for instance, not everyone gets to coach a rookie named Larry Joe Bird. However, there are enough examples of large win jumps that double or almost double previous wins that aren't directly attributable to the arrival of a HOF talent--which makes it more than none.

I think with good coaching, a coherent system, rational substitution patterns, a legit point guard, and better defense, the Rockets could double the win number. Add a vet piece or two and a contributing rookie and I think we'll do a little better than that.

 

As you noted most of these involve some major player add or major roster turnover. I mean, the Washington Wizards example includes the demotion of Team GM to Power Forward. Or Ralph Sampson and Rodney McCray joining a 14 win team. That was the result of a 50% chance instead of a 15% one. I can't say this for certain, but im pretty sure it wasn't Del Harris that was holding the 1982 Rockets down by neglecting Terry Teagle

Unfortunately for the current Rockets they have more Teagles than Sampsons or Birds or Jordans. Like you said, they have nobody to operate the offense. Hence, it is the worst

You could take all the Ime Udokas and Vogels and Atkinson's in the world but if you hand them this roster plus a few non star role players and a 19 year old not named Victor (arguably Scoot) and no Harden level talent , you're looking at another tank brigade season.

 

Here is my TOP 5

Wembanyama
Trade down
Trade down
Trade down
Trade down

the value in this draft is 6-14
Black, Wallace, Walker, Hendricks, Hood-Schifino, Lively, Dick & Whitmore

if we don’t get the Wembanyama trade back and collect additional assets.
-Both the Orlando pick
- the Hornets pick plus a future lightly protected FRP & Kai Jones. (Worth a flyer —> on rookie deal team controlled annually) They are set a center with Williams & Richard. Helps clean up their roster.
-Wizards pick and a lightly protected future FRP & Corey Kispert.

 

I've been saying this all along, but I'm really solidifying on Ausar Thompson being my guy if we're unlucky enough to land at #6, or maybe even at #5 depending on who's left on the board. I think he's ready to help in the NBA right now as a plus perimeter defensive player off the bench and a good cutter & willing passer. He can immediately grab 20-25 minutes as a rookie and make us better.

He's going to be one of the best perimeter defenders of this class and I think his athleticism gives him a little more upside than guys like Taylor Hendricks, Anthony Black, or Cason Wallace. I think Ausar has obvious all-star upside whereas it's a little harder to see it with those players.

As he gets a little better at shooting and at his all-around game, which I think he will do (great work ethic and drive), I see him as an Andre Iguodala type of talent, with an outside chance at turning himself into something closer to Jimmy Butler if everything hits perfectly.

There's really nothing about his game that you can project as bad moving forward. His shooting is a work-in-progress but I have little doubt that he will be able to develop it into at least a passable NBA skill given the improvement he's shown this year.

There's a real chance he'll end up being the best player taken after Wemby and Scoot, so I think he'd be a great pick at #6.

 

My new top 6 are

1. VW 2. SH 3. BM. 4.Amen T. 5. TH. 6. CW.

 

May I ask why you rate TH ahead of Whitmore?

 

I like his height, length and quickness. I like Whitmore a lot too.

 

Good answer.

I'm going with Whitmore because of toughness and
bringing muscle and power to the team.

Rockets have a lot of slight of build players that are pushovers

 

That makes sense.

 

I like that he's almost as athletic as amen, 2 years younger, and can shoot. to me there's a case to be made that he should be in the discussion at 4/5 with amen (assuming wemby, scoot, miller go 1-3). and since those are my top 5 I'm happy drafting wherever we land. 6 becomes trickier, but I lean Wallace over Hendricks, walker, black, etc...