No new Xbox in 2005

I don't know how much you guys care, but this is somewhat big news to me seeing as how I thought Microsoft REALLY wanted to have an early release in 2005, compared to Sony and Nintendo.

http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/6421/Xbox-2-Ballmer-Says-No-New-Xbox-in-2005


Not sure if this means much. Could mean that Microsoft is working harder on getting backwards compatibility as well as buying time to put in HD-DVD and other things, or it could mean something else. Or maybe they didn't really care about 2005 anyways. Either way, this seems to shorten the time span between the new Xbox and the new Nintendo and Playstation, which doesn't sound good for Microsoft IMO. I felt as though they were trying to focus on getting a big lead early and putting in ok hardware, but if they release not much sooner than the new Nintendo, which should be really innovative and I'd say at least as strong as the next Xbox, and the new Playstation, which will be a beast of a machine if they meet their expectations. I'm just rambling on now so I'll just let others discuss this, if they care.

 

Uh....you must not have not the much info on the next consoles. Mircrosoft seemed to have made a big deal about trying to beat the others out to the market, convinced that the big lead that the PS2 has today was lead by its early release. Since it seemed as though Nintendo and Sony were slated for around 2006, Mircrosoft would try to push their console out in late 2005. Sure, I didn't think it made since for the last console of one generation to be succeeded by a next console that would be the 1st console the next, but that's seemed to be what is planned.

I admit I don't know what Nintendo is really doing, (I don't think most people do) and they could try to come out in 2005, but I don't think they really care on being the 1st one out. Plus, Do you mean 2005 US release, or Japan release? If it means a US release, I would expect an earlier release in Japan that would take place at least a few months earlier. However, that would take place around the June-September range, around the same time as shows such as E3 and TGS that will help sell their product due to hype. Not sure whether they will want to release that early when they have only seemed to announce just showing off the next console at E3. (for ex: I think the PS2 was shown at an E3 like a year before it come out, or something like that) I think the two consoles, the next Xbox and Nintendo, actually use a lot of the same companies to produce certain parts of their system, so I could see them being a little similar, although not too similar. I'm kind of expecting something crazy out of Nintendo for playing games that will either be awesome or suck. Since they don't really care about online gaming, they NEED something that attract buyers even if it is not the most powerful of the three or the first to be releases.

If you think the PS3 will be out in 2005, that would be crazily optimistic. It should be using a lot of new technology that will not even be ready in some parts of '05. For example, the RAM it will use, which the fastest RAM in the world, with a BW in the area of 25-50 GB per sec at least. This RAM won't even be read until summer of next year, so it would be hard to mass product a PS3 that is still getting its final design during late summer/early fall and get it out in only a few months time, especially when Sony does not and should not really care on making too many deadlines and should focus on making the best machine possible. And this is with hoping the the Cell architecture and Blu-ray technology all are easy to manufacture at the time as well, which would be saying a lot since these are also new techs that have take a lot of time to research with a lot of money poured into them.

With this announcement, I still expect the next XBox to be released first, possible in the 1st quarter of 2006 with a Nintendo release not soon that far off. Sony may not release until mid to late '06, but by being smart and airing a few PS3 commercials, perhaps showing what a MGS 4 or new GTA would look like, while the other consoles are about to be released, people may try to just wait untill it releases.

BTW, man does Halo 2 get a lot of hype. I mean, the first one was pretty good, but far from the best FPS out there, including the PC IMO. And with games like Doom 3 and Half-life 2 coming out around the same time, it may not even be the best FPS on its system. I know the PS2 has two games coming up, one called Killzone that should be out later this year, and another called Black that will probably come out next year some time, that are suppose to be "Halo-killers." While I doubt they will kill it, they both look to be VERY good FPS, especially for the PS2. And this doesn't even include a game like GTA: SA. I'm thinking this game will probably sell a whole lot, and IMO, more than Halo 2. If anything, if one out of every 10 PS2 owner buys GTA while one out of every 2 XBox owners by Halo 2, it would still probably get outsold by GTA simply because their are so many PS2 owners. I read a list of games that had sold the most in NA during these the release of the consoles, and out of like maybe the 1st 52 or so games, only like 10-12 games were NOT PS2 games, which was leading with both GTAs. Also, there are more people playing SOCOM 2 than all of Xbox Live combined, which shows a little bit of the online difference. Also, by being the best selling game of all-time worldwide, it would have to sell well in Japan and not many Japanese like the Xbox or Xbox games, especially FPS's like us Americans do. (hehe...must be our desire to kill or something).

I don't know though. Maybe DaDakota is right and Balmer is just telling stories. After all, he also said he'd bet anyone that the next Xbox would out sell the next Sony Playstation.

I also think that Mircrosoft has the key in that they seem to be able to put out a console that is easier to program with, although the PS3 looks like it will run on a kind of OpenGL instead of a hardware based program. It kind of sucks to be seeing games like MGS 3, FF 12, GTA:SA and then see another game that looks like crap because the developers couldn't really program the PS2 correctly.

 

Yeah, I also think that the next-gen systems will make remarkable strides as far as gaming goes. IIRC, before the PS2 got released, people thought that console graphics were already at a level that could be hard to improve, although certainly isn't true. I remember looking at the 1st Madden on the PS2 and being blown away. Now, compared to even just the newer PS2 games, the 1st gen of console games for the PS2 kind of look like crap. (bit of a stretch, but works for my point). With an update in hardware, games will just look amazing.

Also, there is a TON of money invested in these new systems. I think Sony has spent at least a couple billion dollars on R&D IIRC, and with IBM, tried to design the Cell back it like 2000. If they could meet their expectations, like I mentioned earlier, games would be awesome. They claim to be confident in making gameplay graphics look photo-realistic, although I'm not sure if I would to expect games looking like Final Fantasy: Spirits Within in real-time. Probably more like early to mid console CG will be similar to how the next gens' real time graphics will look, or at least I hope.

Also, along with graphics, other things will be vastly improved. Imagine playing NBA Live/ESPN basketball on the new consoles, getting scores like 91-88 on 12 minute quarters. The AI would be great and not be faked out by stupid pump fakes. It would adjust to your constand driving to the right, and occasionaly throw some complicate zones at you. Also, no Lebron James for two future 1st rd picks in the franchise/dynasty mode, although with you adjusting the price of parking and being Tim-like by making interesting mini-plans for your team to increase attendance. So even if the graphics don't look that much better, other aspects of gameplay would be great to improve on.

With new forms of media such as Blu-ray and HD-DVD, games will have much more space available for games. I wonder who would be the first developer that would actually try to use two of either one. And with more RAM and better game engines and middleware, games will be easier to make and look just that much better.

It also seems as though Microsoft and Sony want to focus a lot of online gaming as well, wanting to creat huge communities for games. It is already starting to seem as though a game MUST have some type of multiplayer today unless the game is just awesome in single play action, such as a GTA, MGS, or FF 12. But with the next-gen, it would seem as though many, if not all games, no matter what type, would have some sort of online capabilities. This is why I think it is a huge mistake by Nintendo to not really focus on online gaming, and why I think their next console must be really intriguing to attract customers and stay in the race, especially if Sony's PSP makes an impact in the handheld world, hurting Nintendo's dominance in the market and cutting off a huge source of profit.

As for the article I posted, I've read in some places that they don't know whether he meant the fiscal year or calendar year. I didn't see much of a difference until I learned that they were meaning the fiscal year ending this next July, not the following one. If he meant that no new XBox by July of next year, that would still make it possible to come out later in the calendar year. But that just seems like a stupid comment to make since it is pretty much obvious that it wouldn't come out then. That's like saying, "Well, Yao won't be putting up 20 and 10 his first game, but we're working with him to get him there eventually." Um...yeah, I wouldn't think that Yao would be putting up 20 and 10 in the 1st games of his NBA career, although that would have been nice.

 

Actually, I could see backwards compatability delaying the next Xbox rather than allowing it to be released sooner. IMO, Microsoft kind of screwed up in having the original Xbox's GPU being made by nVidia and now have their next console's GPU being made by ATI. By having two different GPU companies, two RIVAL companies at that, makes it difficult for the new Xbox to play the regular Xbox games since nVidia surely wouldn't tell ATI their secrets and ways of playing the originals. Now, they can and seem to be trying to create some kind of emulation system for the new Xbox that would play Xbox games, but that would take a lot of money and time to perfect, which I'm not sure they want to do.