Agreed. China has an impossible choice. Biden really ****ed them. If they launch an unprovoked attack, the world will crush them with Economic sanctions which would fast track their economy collapsing. Best case is they destabilize the microprocessing industry, but I’m sure the US would love to swoop in and steal all those engineers and have them run newly built fabs in the US. Operation paper clip 2.0. Otherwise it is a slow death. Dwindling workforce, huge environmental issues, it will lead to huge protests. Neither outcome is a good one.
Thank you for the analysis seriously. You are very knowledgeable and I learned quite a bit from you. What do you think Japan and Australia does in a conflict? Australia by buying nuclear subs from us in the neat future ties their hands to us. How long do you think taiwan can survive without American help?
At that point, Taiwan is likely in a no-win scenario. It might even feel like the first few months of Ukraine where nations sit on the sidelines while waiting for the US to form a cogent response. Japan might be taking close notes, but their people wouldn't feel like they'd have a skin in the game until the carnage unfolds for everyone to see. Too late for the Taiwanese people though. There's some threads here with discussion about full on wargame scenarios. https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...inevitable-and-what-will-us-defend-it.315935/ https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/taiwan-invasion-wargame.315826/ CCP has been pretty crafty probing aggressive responses without provoking or starting an all out conflict. I mean, if they were to attack, I think the reasons could be more pragmatic such as strategic location (using Taiwan as a way to break outside US's naval chokehold) and resources (similar to the US dominating trade lanes, securing Taiwan would increase claims to maritime exclusive economic zones. I would think stoking plain old nationalistic grievances is a last resort where the economy weakens to the point that the people are fed up with the government and triggers an existential crisis of CCP legitimacy. They'd protest to the point where censors can't block everything out. Xi stokes nationalistic fervor to shore up their base and purge rabble rousers as cannon fodder. At that point, they wouldn't really care about sanctions or global trade concerns. These maneuverings by both US and China are still far away from the last response. Right now, it's still a friendly yet cold(er) competition...
Yeah, those are black people so no-one in the West or East gives a **** if over a half million people die. Between that at China trying to pick through the discarded bones left by the West last century, there isn't much attention given to Africa.
Has Ukraine stalled? Russia seems stalled. It feels like this has been a stalemate for a few months with tons of lost life on the Russian side and I assume high losses on the Ukrainian side as well but it's not published. Russians are just launching missiles and suicide drones at the Ukrainians without any repercussions.
Do we know it was a special ops though? Russia says it is, but I honestly have no clue what is most likely. Could be the woman arrested is an antiwar protester turned homegrown terrorist. Or it could be other Russian antiwar terrorists. She could have been used by Ukrainian special ops to deliver the bomb. It could have been Russian intelligence services that wanted to eliminate the blogger for his criticisms of their military performance (as they have assassinated other prominent Russians) while blaming Ukraine. It could even be third party provocateurs, like jihadis or Israelis, hoping to enlarge the war. Point taken its a shitty thing to do to (a) assassinate people and (b) do it in a cafe where others could end up as collateral damage. But, (c) whoever did it are bad people regardless and (d) they might have even been hoping -- depending on who they are and what their objectives are -- to hurt more people in that cafe.
Clinton was sooooooooo bad on foreign policy. I sincerely do not understand democrats who like Clinton.
Russia's military leadership, and Putin, has to read this with their blood turning cold: From The Drive - link below: On a day when Ukrainian officials say the Black Sea port city of Odesa was hit by a wave of Iranian-made Shahed drones, the Pentagon announced a $2.6 billion arms package that includes new drone defenses. (14 of 17 were reported to have been shot down) The latest package, which includes $500 million in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) funding and $2.1 billion under DoD’s Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funding, "includes important capabilities for air defense and to counter Russian unmanned aerial systems," a senior U.S. defense official told reporters, including from The War Zone, Tuesday. "This includes additional interceptors for both Patriots and [National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missiles Systems] NASAMS air defense systems. And it also includes new counter-UAS capabilities, like a 30mm gun track to detect and intercept drones, such as the Iranian-built Shaheds." In addition, the package includes 10 mobile counter-UAS laser-guided rocket systems that "will enable Ukraine to fire precision rockets from mobile positions." Those systems will be new to Ukraine, but "they will use the APKWS advanced precision kill weapon system, laser-guided munitions, to counter the drone threat" that the U.S. has previously provided, the official said. The aid package also comes as both sides are locked in a bloody stalemate in the east ahead of a looming Ukrainian counteroffensive. "The war is at an important stage," the senior U.S. defense official said. "Fighting continuing in the east, but there have not been significant recent shifts in territorial control. The front lines are relatively static, with significant exchanges of artillery, but without significant maneuver gains by either side. As we have said previously, our focus is on supporting the Ukrainians to change the dynamics on the ground. We want to help Ukraine advance and hold this position in what we expect will be a Ukrainian counteroffensive." In addition to helping Ukraine bolster its drone defenses, the aid package was designed around two other lines of effort, the official said. "In the category of fires, the package includes a range of items to help Ukraine sustain its fight. This includes additional Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems [munitions] or as we call them GMLRS as well as 155-millimeter artillery rounds, including Excalibur precision-guided rounds. It also includes additional mortar rounds, which continue to help ensure Ukraine has a layered indirect fire capability, including to support that close fight as its forces maneuver to push back the Russian line." The package also "includes several capabilities to support U.S. provided armor," the official said. "That includes 120mm ammunition, which will support Ukraine's newly formed armored tank battalions as well as the Abrams tanks that the United States has committed; 25mm ammunition which can be used on the Bradley Fighting Vehicles that the United States previously committed, and also recovery vehicles and refuelers to keep the armor in the fight." The Pentagon is not concerned about whether Ukraine using any of the donated weapons in its seven-month defense of Bakhmut will affect the much-anticipated counteroffensive, the official told The War Zone. "As you know, we are in very close communication with the Ukrainian leadership team, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian political leadership, and we understand the strategies that they have decided to pursue," the official said. "We absolutely are seeing the devastating loss of life that Russia is experiencing, with Wagner forces essentially being thrown into a meat grinder and Russian forces being fixed into position because of the robust Ukrainian defenses. And so certainly, we understand Ukraine's strategy, and we are very confident that they do have the equipment that they need and that we are helping them to field these newly trained forces, so they do have the capabilities to be able to pursue whatever this next phase looks like on the battlefield." “In terms of the challenge of maintaining a sufficient supply of ammunition of whatever caliber, I think we're at this really helpful inflection point right now,” the official said. “Previously, the U.S. and most of the allies were just drawing down from their own stock when it came to Western calibers” like those used with the M777 howitzers the U.S. has provided Ukraine in the past, the official said. “Obviously, there's a finite supply in our own stock. But now we're at this point where we are also doing a healthy amount of procurement because of increased production of the ammunition. And the U.S was really at the front end of this wave, increasing production and procurement of 155mm ammunition.” Capabilities in the $500 million PDA package, the 35th such drawdown, include: Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems; Additional ammunition for M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; 120mm mortar rounds; 120mm and 105mm tank ammunition; 25mm ammunition; Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; Approximately 400 grenade launchers and 200,000 rounds of ammunition; 11 tactical vehicles to recover equipment; 61 heavy fuel tankers; 10 trucks and 10 trailers to transport heavy equipment; Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair; Spare parts and other field equipment. The new aid package includes an undisclosed number of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) munitions for use with the U.S.-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). (U.S. Army photo) U.S. Army photo Under USAI, the DoD will provide Ukraine with: Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS); Nine counter-Unmanned Aerial System 30mm gun trucks; 10 mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems; Three air surveillance radars; 30mm and 23mm anti-aircraft ammunition; 130mm and 122mm artillery rounds; 122mm GRAD rockets; Rocket launchers and ammunition; 120mm and 81mm mortar systems; 120mm, 81mm, and 60mm mortar rounds; 120mm tank ammunition; Javelin anti-armor systems; Anti-armor rockets; Precision aerial munitions; Approximately 3,600 small arms and more than 23,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition; Seven tactical vehicles to recover equipment; Eight heavy fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers; Armored bridging systems; Four logistics support vehicles; Trucks and ten trailers to transport heavy equipment; Secure communications equipment; SATCOM terminals and services; Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment. Before we dive into the latest updates from Ukraine, The War Zone readers can get caught up on our previous rolling coverage here The Latest During his opening address at the special teleconference with the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces, Russian Defense Minister and General of the Army Sergei Shoigu made some more wild claims about the destruction of donated arms to Ukraine. Russia "is purposefully destroying weapons and military equipment sent by the West, both in combat positions and during transportation," he claimed. "Since the beginning of this year alone, 59 M-777 artillery systems, 13 Paladin self-propelled artillery systems, 14 American-made HIMARS launchers, as well as 30 self-propelled artillery systems from Poland, Germany, France, and the Czech Republic have been hit," Shoigu claimed without offering proof. If you add up previous Russian claims about HIMARS, they have now taken out about 40, which is at least two more than the 38 the U.S. has promised Ukraine. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...st-us-aid-package-includes-new-drone-defenses
