I'm seeing.... Yao: 21.2 ppg 11.3 rbg 5.1 apg 2.2 bpg 0.7 spg TMac: 25.6 ppg 6.4 rpg 5.6 apg 1.1 bpg 2.1 spg
Mhmm.. So, its illogical or crazy, to assume that a 7'6" center with great court vision and good passing skills that has yet fully developed, can get 5apg on a line up that consists of an all star top 5 shooter/scorer, a shooting/scoring PF who's consistency has never floundered throughout his career, a shooting/scoring SF and a shooting PG? You're right, how can anyone take such an outlandish, ill based, ludicrous, and of course blatantly confuted assumption seriously? Silly me..
It is impossible for a C to average 5 assists unless he is the most dominant player in the league OR he plays in a Princeton-type offense, i.e., the Kings or Nets. There is absolutely no way in hell Yao will average 5 assists, and I will bet you on it. I will bet you on anything above 3.5 actually. In JVG's offense, its difficult for the PG to average 5 assists. I don't think any player has eclipsed 6 assists under JVG - any. This offense will simply not generate enough opportunities for Yao to gather 5 assists. He'd be capable of doing it in the right system, if he were playing for the Kings.... But no way on the Rockets.
All I know is that Yao needs to average atleast 20ppg 10rpg next season. Hopefully: 21.5ppg 10.5rpg 3.6apg 2bpg
Delete Nachbar and Spoon then you will have 91. This is more realistic. Van G will play a 8 man rotation in a close game. MoT, Spoon will play as the back up center especially when there is no offensive center on the other teams which means 25 plus team. Only a hand full of other big guys might kill MoT offensively. Shaq, Duncan, KG, O'Neil, Dirk and maybe Miller.
Impossible? That's going alittle too far. Improbable, MAYBE, but not impossible. And in JVG's offense, it IS difficult for the PG to average 5 assits simply because his offense is construed as in and out, be it a center on the low post or a gaurd with penetration such as T-mac. That being the case, I don't see how it's 'impossible', for a center with passing skills and who draws as much defensive attention as Yao, to average 5 assists surrounded with as many shooters as he is in this current line up. I really don't see how all that does not generate enough opportunities for a possible 5 assists from Yao. 5 assists is my edgy, hopeful yet reasonable prediction. But, I really don't think it's impossible for him to get atleast 4-4.5 assists in THIS offense. He has good court vision, good hands, good passing skills, and is in an in and out oriented offense, surrounded by good consistent jump shooters, something he's never had. And it'd be naive to think his apg numbers of his first two years, are going to be the expected and routine. His rookie year was all about getting accustomed to the NBA style of play, and his teammates. His second year, was to get accustomed to a new coach that instructed him to 'bang' in the low post and focus on nothing more that entire year. The only thing that could prevent Yao from producing assists is if JVG continues where he left off last year. Meaning maiming his diverse skills and talents, forcing him to be a one sided 'banger' that must not pass no matter what. And I don't think that'll be the case, unless JVG is a stupid man. I consider last year as JVG focusing on one side of Yao's game that lacked developement and strength. Now that that's been worked on, he should move on to other aspects of Yao's game this comming season. And let's not forget besides the shooters, T-mac's an excellent slasher. And if you recall those Yao passes to a penetrating Steve of last year as part of JVG's offense. You can't doubt T-mac's inclusion this year, being a better finisher, will provoke more of those plays being run. Like I said, improbable maybe, but not impossible.
i would like to see what r juugie n amed's prediction of yao's stats..... oh, btw where r both of them all summer????
Why are you predicting the 'improbable' then? Now you admit your prediction is unlikely, but that thought the point was to predict what was LIKELY to happen. ie 'probable'.
hey Hmm... I'll back you up on this. sure it'll probably not happen. but it's not out of the realm of possiblities. when i read your post the first time my first thought was I cannot remember a Center who was a low post threat and still had 5+ assists per game, not even Shaq, not hakeem, not kareem. but you know Vlade Divac did eclipse this feat last season playing 28 minutes a game. Sure we don't have shooters like the kings do... but Yao will have more touches than Divac, can become just as good if not a better passer, and has a truly great scorer to pass to. i agree that you need a more wide open offense to get the five assists... but in principle there's nothing keeping yao from getting there. will he get it next season? probably not. but will i be surprised out of my mind if he does? no i'll save that kind of surprise for a cards red sox worlds series.
Actually, Kareem, Walton, and Wilt all averaged 5+ assists at least once in their careers. But I agree with you. I see Yao as topping off at about 3-3.5apg in his career. Someone who can make flashy passes, but looks to score first. Sabonis never averaged more than 3 assists per game in the NBA.
I'm not predicting the improbable. I was pointing out that if you had to chose between improbable and impossible, towards Yao achieving 5apg, impossible would be extreme and down right unreasonable taking in consideration the possibilities that leave room for this to actually happen. I myself, didn't call my prediction outright improbable, the exact quote is "Improbable, maybe". Yipengzhao, thank you for making those fine points that do backup my argument here. It is indeed, not out of the realm of possibility. He could very well achieve this in his 3rd season, his 4th or his 5th, depending the supporting cast set around him is capable of consistent shooting/offense. As the one provided so far and yet finished shows promise to be. I agree with dharocks as well on Yao's possible/most likely career apg stat. But, like I said, with the shooters we have placed around him this season, not to mentoin one of whom is a top 5 all star SG, and Yao's passing ability and court vision, it's not impossible for him to average 5apg this comming season.
My predictions for Yao's stats next year are.. 22pts/11rebs/4apg/3bpg I know they seem kind of high but im hoping JVG opens the offense for Yao and TMac. Yao was forced into the low post all the time last year and the only people that received his passes were usually players camping at the 3pt line. I think having JHoward in the lineup will help immensly as a mid range player who can stop and pop the 10 - 15 ft jumpers. I know MoT can do that too but everyone else seems to take a few dribbles first instead of just catching and shooting (which leads to way more assists). J
in the prime of his prime, hakeem got the ball more than yao will this year (actually he pretty much got the ball on every possession), he was doubled more than yao after getting the ball, and he was better at handling double teams (he didn't panic against anyone except seattle whereas yao panics against a lot of double teams), we averaged more points than we will under van gundy, and he had quite an array of shooters around him and he got about 3.5 assists a game. shaq, who is at least an average passer out of the post, which when combined with the fact he doesn't have to worry about anyone getting to the ball while he holds it over his head makes him a very effective post passer, in his prime while surrounded by great shooters and an amazing 2 guard, topped out at about 3.5 apg also IIRC. now we're supposed to believe yao will not only top them, but do it after averaging 1.5 apg the season before while playing in what will essentially be the same offense (expect JVG to continue to maim his diverse skills Hmm, JVG has shown in his career that he is not only a poor offensive coach, but a stubborn coach). plus, whatever yao's actual court vision and passing ability, he is far overrated in this aspect because he does not yet know how to use his court vision and execute his passing ability. sure, he shows us glimpses, then the rest of the time he gets flustered by double teams or forces passes to cutters. so unless we become the kings next year, don't expect 5 apg.
If Yao averages 5 assists, he will average too many TO's with it and it will be at the cost of an easier basket from himself. There is no way a JVG-offense will generate ample opportunities for Yao Ming to sensibly assist on 5 plays per game. Yao averaging 5 assists is as likely as him averaging 26ppg. It's possible, yes, but it will be detrimental to the team. Basically, Yao will have to NOT take advantage of easy scoring opportunities for him to average 5 assists. This offense is not built for Yao to average 5 assists. It's more geared towards him averaging 26ppg. If it's happening, halfway through the season JVG will force Yao to pass less and it will drop his average. I will take any bets. Yao will not average 5 assists per game under JVG. Any amount, any terms. You may like it to happen. It may have a snowball's chance in hell. But to say that you PREDICT Yao will average 5 assists for us next season is lying to us and yourself - you know it won't happen. If this prediction "contest" had any consequences, you would not predict the 5 assists.
