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Grade the tank job's success based on getting each of the following prospects

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by OremLK, Mar 26, 2023.

  1. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Here are the top 7 prospects on this consensus draft big board. Going 7 deep because #7 is the lowest we could realistically pick, and ain't nobody got time for doing more than that anyway.

    1. Wemby. 10/10. Generational talent. If he stays healthy, this is better than we could ever have hoped.

    2. Scoot. 9/10. #1 pick in most drafts. Solid A grade for Stone & co.

    3. Brandon Miller. 6.5/10. Not a big fan of Miller and his hot garbage tournament made it worse. Chandler Parsons 2.0? Do not see him as a #1 option at all, maybe not even #2. Very meh rebuild if this is the pick.

    4. Amen Thompson. 7.5/10. More basketball skills than people give him credit for. Not just an athlete. At least there's a chance at saving the rebuild with a franchise-changing superstar with his upside. Very risky way to end the rebuild though.

    5. Ausar Thompson. 7/10. I could see him having a Jimmy Butler type of career, but he's by no means a sure thing to get there; at least he's safer than Amen, though.

    6. Jarace Walker. 7.5/10. Love this kid's game, near-superstar value without superstar scoring. Potential DPOY candidate. Incredible connective guy who makes everyone better instantly. Who is our #1 option on offense if we end up with Walker, though?

    7. Cam Whitmore. 6.5/10. Absolute bull when he drives, hits open threes, excellent athlete, but it's possible to see an outcome where he's "just" KJ Martin again. If, god forbid, we end up at #7, I think he's a good pick there, but wow, this is not the outcome we want with our last great draft pick of the rebuild.
     
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  2. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    But aren’t you grading them on luck here? There’s no effort going into which pick we get, it’s literally a lottery. All they can do is guarantee we get the odds.

    I won’t change the grade for the front office based on pick. Wemby or not they’re a 7 out of 10 for the decisions they’ve made since Harden asked out. A great 23-24 season could give them bonus points. I did not like how they amateurishly tanked by hollowing out the PG position, it affected everyone else and didn’t have to.

    Is that great? Not really but good enough to have a stack of amazing talent, picks and cap space to forge a championship core moving forward.

    Basically no one has f’ed up bad enough to postpone a title. As long as they don’t sign a dead huge contract or trade picks for declining players, we are in a dream position.

    Anyone would love to be our GM right now. Blank canvas, no tanking anymore, nice young core, double max cap space and future assets. Could it be better? Yes but in the grand scheme of things we have everything we need right now.
     
  3. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Okay, sure. Take it as "grade the results of the rebuild in terms of prospects acquired", if you prefer. Obviously, yes, luck plays/played a big role in it and will continue to do so moving forward as we see how players develop and everything pans out.

    Mainly curious how people will feel about all the young guys we'll have in the organization in aggregate after the draft, depending on where we land and who we pick.
     
  4. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    For me this core plus cap space plus a top 5 pick plus all future picks = certainly enough to win a title.

    I think all 3 of Sengun, Green and Jabari will show major improvement next season. Existing core is highly underrated due to (1) fan politics and (2) enduring the worst floor general and offensive execution in the NBA.
     
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  5. DreamR

    DreamR Member

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    Wemby and Scoot are the only ones that really excite me.

    Miller seems too streaky with his shot to be considered a sharpshooter and too limited to be considered a shot creator.

    The Thompson twins are too unknown kind of like Sharpe last year. I'm not so sure about their level of competition at Overtime Elite. And we desperately need someone who can shoot which is possibly their greatest weakness.

    I do like Walker since we desperately need strong defense but I don't think he can be a star in the league. Cam gives me a similar non-star vibe.

    Trading the pick if it falls outside of 1&2 seems more exciting at this point.
     
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  6. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    My view is that it might be depending on who the pick is and how development of all the prospects turns out. You'll notice none of my grades were below 6.5. I think there's a real chance we have a breakout superstar from the current squad, but I'm nowhere near 100% confident of that. I'd feel a lot better if we got a surefire prospect (or as close as it gets) like Wemby or Scoot.
     
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  7. Gimmmethemike

    Gimmmethemike Member

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    Wemby or Scoot or Bust after that
     
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  8. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Double post
     
    #8 Mathloom, Mar 26, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2023
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  9. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    To my subjective eyes, it feels as though you’re assuming the absolute worst possible outcome to be as likely as the median outcome. That we end up with 0 players worth the max after drafting 3 in the top 5 slots and 9 in the top 30 spots is so incredibly unlikely.

    I don’t believe anyone would bet a dollar on that happening. However people would bet on one of our 3 guys becoming a star.

    Overall my methodology is different too. I don’t think it depends much at all on how a bunch of high potential 20 yr olds did. I think our championship aspirations now are firmly based on how each dollar is invested. If we pay the wrong guy the max, it won’t even matter if one young guy breaks out because we will spend years and draft capital remedying that situation.

    IMO it’s 90% about GM, scouts and coaches now. If our prospects are at least good NBA players then even if they don’t reach max potential, we still have the assets to build a championship squad by packaging them.

    Right now out of 7 we drafted none look like they can’t be in a rotation next season. That’s a staggering rate of success and you usually have to draft juniors and seniors to achieve that level of consistency in prospects. We did it with an ultra young core.

    I’m terrified at the prospect of our future mostly being in the hands of Stone and Silas because they’ve never in their entire careers been asked to win. So I’m expecting anything, including maybe they surprise us by being better at winning than they are at building. Exciting times ahead, fingers crossed.
     
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  10. fattz

    fattz Member

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    Could not disagree more. I would trade either Wembanyama or Scoot (the first 2 picks) to Orlando for 5 & 9. Walker & Black.
    Combination of Walker & Black > Wembanyama OR Scoot.

    I would move Smith to center to make room for Walker. That moves Sengun to 6th man. Black is very thing Green needs to be successful. No more career highs against us.
     
  11. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    the players we have, plus the players we might be able to draft, give us a ton of depth and potential. it will be up to stone and Silas to get these kids to reach their potential.

    so if you ask me to grade the roster based on their potential, 9/10.excellent.

    if you ask me to grade the likelihood that stone/Silas can get them there, 3/10 for Silas, and 6/10 for Stone.
     
  12. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    After our last two overhyped draft picks, I think I'll wait to see how they actually perform before I get too excited.
     
  13. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    Something tells me this post won't age well.
     
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  14. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Sorry to be pedantic, but I don't understand the relation between the question and the grades?

    Is it: How satisfied are you (out of 10) at the process of tanking all season? Give this rating out of 10 for various particular player being picked at a specific draft position, with that player and position being the result of the tanking.

    It's hard enough to figure out how to effectively link it (not sure I did!!)
     
  15. kingkingston

    kingkingston Member

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    What tank job? rebuilding is not tanking......they are completely different.
     
  16. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Member

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    I would have liked to see more improvement year 3 into the rebuild. This year was a complete disaster. While I am happy that we won’t fall out of the bottom 3 for the tank, you don’t have to be as bad as we were this season to tank.

    The coaching was pretty terrible. Also I wanted to see more growth from Jalen as the franchise guy. That was disappointing. But I liked the growth from Sengun. Think we found something great in Tari. If Jabari continues to play well to finish out the season, you’ll have to put him on the growth list. KJ took a big step. Garuba took a good step.

    we didn’t get it right this year with Jalen. We are gonna get a chance to correct course with a new coach and potentially a new back-court mate. It’s too important. Jalen has to make that leap in year 3. They need to put him in the best situation to do that.
     
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  17. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member

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    No way. We don't have that many roster spots and I would rather roll the dice with a potential superstar.
     

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