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D&D Coronavirus thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by NewRoxFan, Feb 23, 2020.

  1. SuraGotMadHops

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    LOL libs consumed the entirety of that cake back in 2020.
     
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  2. dmoneybangbang

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    Lol. They had piece but they weren’t injecting bleach or getting suckered into phony treatments by grifters. That was you
     
  3. SuraGotMadHops

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    Yeah...sure they were. Libs like to exaggerate all that in an effort to feel superior to cover up their own ignorance and low IQ. Believe me kid, smart people were chill, handled Covid without taking anything weird, knew the vax for what it was (a preemptive therapeutic), and were reasonable about masking and how it works vs how it does work.

    You have a long swim before you reach my island of intelligence son.
     
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  4. basso

    basso Member
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  5. dmoneybangbang

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    Lol…. You are in the kiddie pool son.

    You and your media coordinated to lie about the election, we should trust you why?
     
  6. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    < 0.01% is still something.



    Lab leak theory of pandemic resurfaces but evidence points to animal spillover : Goats and Soda : NPR

    Since the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic began three years ago, its origin has been a topic of much scientific — and political — debate. Two main theories exist: The virus spilled over from an animal into people, most likely in a market in Wuhan, China, or the virus came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology and spread due to some type of laboratory accident.

    The Wall Street Journal added to that debate this week when they reported that the U.S. Department of Energy has shifted its stance on the origin of COVID. It now concludes, with "low confidence," that the pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak in Wuhan, China.

    The agency based its conclusion on classified evidence that isn't available to the public. According to the federal government, "low confidence" means "the information used in the analysis is scant, questionable, fragmented, or that solid analytical conclusions cannot be inferred from the information."

    And at this point, the U.S. intelligence community still has no consensus about the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Four of the eight intelligence agencies lean toward a natural origin for the virus, with "low confidence," while two of them — the DOE and the Federal Bureau of Investigation — support a lab origin, with the latter having "moderate confidence" about its conclusion.

    But it's a theory that the agencies are definitely bringing into the public eye. On Tuesday, FBI director Christopher A. Wray reiterated his belief that COVID-19 "most likely" sprang from "a potential lab incident" in Wuhan, Chin

    But at the end of the day, the origin of the pandemic is also a scientific question. Virologists who study pandemic origins are much less divided than the U.S. intelligence community. They say there is "very convincing" data and "overwhelming evidence" pointing to an animal origin.

    In particular, scientists published two extensive, peer-reviewed papers in Science in July 2022, offering the strongest evidence to date that the COVID-19 pandemic originated in animals at a market in Wuhan, China. Specifically, they conclude that the coronavirus most likely jumped from a caged wild animal into people at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where a huge COVID-19 outbreak began in December 2019.

    Virologist Angela Rasmussen, who contributed to one of the Science papers, says the DOE's "low confident" conclusion doesn't "negate the affirmative evidence for zoonotic [or animal] origin nor do they add any new information in support of lab origin."

    "Many other [news] outlets are presenting this as new conclusive proof that the lab origin hypothesis is equally as plausible as the zoonotic origin hypothesis," Rasmussen wrote in an email to NPR, "and that is a misrepresentation of the evidence for either."

    So just what is the scientific evidence that the pandemic began at the seafood market?

    Neither of the Science papers provide the smoking gun — that is, an animal infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus at a market.

    But they come close. They provide photographic evidence of wild animals such as raccoon dogs and a red fox, which can be infected with and shed SARS-CoV-2, sitting in cages in the market in late 2019. What's more, the caged animals are shown in or near a stall where scientists found SARS-CoV-2 virus on a number of surfaces, including on cages, carts and machines that process animals after they are slaughtered at the market.

    The data in the 2022 studies paints an incredibly detailed picture of the early days of the pandemic. Photographic and genetic data pinpoint a specific stall at the market where the coronavirus likely was transmitted from an animal into people. And a genetic analysis estimates the time, within weeks, when not just one but two spillovers occurred. It calculates that the coronavirus jumped into people once in late November or early December and then again few weeks later.

    At this exact same time, a huge COVID outbreak occurred at the market. Hundreds of people, working and shopping at the market, were likely infected. That outbreak is the first documented one of the pandemic, and it then spilled over into the community, as one of the Science papers shows.

    At the same time, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention found two variants of the coronavirus inside the market. And an independent study, led by virologists at the University of California, San Diego, suggests these two variants didn't evolve in people, because throughout the entire pandemic, scientists have never detected a variant linking the two together. Altogether, the new studies suggest that, most likely, the two variants evolved inside animals.

    Evolutionary biologist Michael Worobey helped lead two of the studies and has been at the forefront of the search for the origins of the pandemic. He has spent his career tracking down the origins of pandemics, including the origin of HIV and the 1918 flu.

    Back in May 2021, Worobey signed a letter calling for an investigation into the lab-leak theory. But then, through his own investigation, he quickly found data supporting an animal origin.

    When the studies were first published online, NPR spoke to Worobey, who's at the University of Arizona, to understand what the data tells us about the origin of SARS-CoV-2; how, he believes, the data may shift the debate about the lab-leak theory; and the significance of photos taken five years before the pandemic. Here are key points from the conversation, which has been edited for clarity and length.

    ...

    NPR: So what is the likelihood of that coincidence happening — that the first cluster of cases occurs at a market that sells animals known to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, but the virus didn't actually come from the market?

    I would put the odds at 1 in 10,000. But it's interesting. We do have one analysis where we show essentially that the chance of having this pattern of cases [clustered around the market] is 1 in 10 million [if the market isn't a source of the virus]. We consider that strong evidence in science.

    The analyses that we've done are telling a very strong story.

    The evidence is amongst the best we have for any emerging virus.
     
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  7. AroundTheWorld

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  8. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Member
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    “The law”
     
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  9. dmoneybangbang

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    No twitter posts from randoms who are selectively retweeting someone else? Shocked.
     
  10. AroundTheWorld

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  11. tinman

    tinman 999999999
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    People have stopped getting the Wuhan virus
    But the woke mind virus is spreading through the non contributing fans like homeless people in California
     
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  12. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    This is an intriguing account of how the UN and US tried to conceal the truth, but with time, it was revealed by journalists and epidemiologists. After six years, the UN finally admitted their responsibility in the fatal cholera epidemic that occurred in Haiti in 2010. The author shares his story and provides his opinion on the 'lab leak theory'. See link for more.

    There is no lab leak theory - by Jonathan M. Katz (theracket.news)

    It's still just vibes in search of a hypothesis

    A decade ago, I traced a deadly epidemic back to a politically explosive source. It was the fall of 2010, and Haiti was reeling from a massive cholera epidemic. Rumors flew that the outbreak was caused by United Nations peacekeepers. Some variations on these rumors were extremely far-fetched.
    Many were politically motivated. But within the rumors was a testable hypothesis: that a specific group of U.N. soldiers at a specific base had introduced the disease in a specific way—by dumping infected sewage into the country’s main river system..

    Now I could have written a story based on the rumors alone. I could have done a meta-analysis over whether we were “allowed” to have the debate over cholera’s origins at all. But I was a journalist living in Port-au-Prince. So I went to the base — a riverside outpost of recently arrived soldiers from Nepal — and found the first hard evidence implicating the U.N. That first story kicked off years of research by myself, epidemiologists, and others. It was not easy: The U.N. and its partners in the U.S. government covered up and fought us every inch of the way. But in the end, we established an evidentiary timeline showing when, where, and as close as we could get to how the U.N. introduced cholera to Haiti. Six years later, I extracted a grudging admission from the U.N. Secretary-General.

    Given that experience, you might think I’d have been among the first to buy into the allegations of the “lab leak” origin of COVID-19. Indeed, I’ve heard through the grapevine that some of my old Haiti cholera crew are buying the hype. But I’m not. At least not yet. That is because the lab leak is still missing the key element of the U.N. cholera story that made it more than just a bunch of rumors: an actual, coherent theory of the case that could be refuted or confirmed.

    When you peel back the label, it seems “lab leak” is a jaunty alliteration that papers over a variety of wildly different, often mutually exclusive, ideas. It isn’t a theory but a bundle of loose hypotheses that contradict each another on basic facts: the nature of the virus in question, the timeline of introduction — even the identity of the lab at which the alleged leak occurred.

    Now, even those contradictions in and of themselves are not necessarily disqualifying. Science famously evolves, and multiple competing ideas can exist at once. But I can’t help but notice that whenever one of these myriad “theories” gains cultural currency, even proponents of directly contradicted hypotheses claim vindication. It is as if they don’t actually care what happened, so long as it affirms their notions of who was wrong and whom the guilty party should be. It’s maddening to watch—especially as someone who thinks that finding the origins of an epidemic is important.

    ...

    OK, so then, what are we even arguing here? Is the “lab leak theory” that an engineered supervirus was released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in November 2019? (Or October?) Or it is that a natural virus emerged from a totally different lab on the other side of the city in December?

    Is the theory that the reported three sick WIV workers carried the virus to a nearby hospital? Or are they irrelevant, which is why they don’t even bear mentioning in the Republican House Intelligence report? How can Chan and Ridley — who wrote an entire book implicating the Wuhan Institute of Virology — shift seamlessly to offering evidence that a totally different facility was at fault? Does Carlson think the FBI and DOE are lying deep staters when they say COVID wasn’t a bioweapon, but telling the truth when they say — for apparently different reasons! — that they think it is most likely that it came from … some lab? Somewhere?

    Contrast all of that to the parsimony of the market hypothesis: In a city of 11 million people, bigger than all five boroughs of New York City combined, the first known cases were clustered around a single market. That market housed caged mammals capable of contracting and spreading SARS-CoV-2: animals farmed in areas suspected of being a source of the virus. The samples taken from the surfaces on the area where the animals were housed tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Vendors and customers at the market got infected, they brought the virus home and to jobs elsewhere, and soon it spread across Wuhan, and then the world.

    That story is not without holes: most notably, researchers haven’t yet produced the intermediary species needed for it to work. But it is coherent, clear, and more importantly, testable. (It also happens to be a story that resembles the way nearly every other viral epidemic in human history began, including the original SARS-CoV-1 in 2003.)

    Maybe someday — even someday soon — someone will come up with a coherent story of which lab COVID emerged from, when, and how. When they do, we can all consider it, test it, and come to our own conclusions. But until that happens, I don’t even understand what theory we’re talking about. It just seems like a lot of talk.
     
    #14472 Amiga, Mar 2, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2023
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  13. Commodore

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  14. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"
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    suggest you throw out your laptop and phone. Turn off your lights. Don't fly in jets anymore.
    It's all based on that same shady stuff you like to malign.
     
  15. AroundTheWorld

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    That's a dumb post.
     
  16. gifford1967

    gifford1967 Member
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    No. It's not.
     
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  17. AroundTheWorld

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    It is.

    I am in no way maligning science. I am criticizing the apparent idea by some that there must be no dissenting opinions in science (going as far as trying to silence and ostracize dissenting voices), when dissent is actually crucial for the advancement of science.

    Laptops, phones, jets would not exist had scientists not challenged the status quo (and prevailing opinions about what constitutes "the science"), again and again.

    And btw, thanks to @B-Bob for inventing the cell phone!
     
    #14477 AroundTheWorld, Mar 2, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2023
  18. pahiyas

    pahiyas Member

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    "We do have one analysis where we show essentially that the chance of having this pattern of cases [clustered around the market] is 1 in 10 million [if the market isn't a source of the virus]."

    No way in hell I am an expert on this. But, what if patient zero was a technician from the lab who went to the market and infected a seller? That seller will come to the market every day till he gets very sick. That will create the clustering. IIRC, there was also clustering in the lab, though not as big as the market. This is assuming a lab accidental infection of some sort. 1 in 10 million seems whimsical. Not an expert, so...:D
     
  19. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Member
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    I have speculated that’s what happened from the beginning. The only reason you don’t see me waving my dock about it is because I can’t prove it and it doesn’t matter.
     
  20. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    The findings indicate that there are likely two distinct "jumps" to humans, which would require there to be two patient zeros, weeks apart. While not impossible, it is highly unlikely that both jumps originated from the lab.

    "The data in the 2022 studies paints an incredibly detailed picture of the early days of the pandemic. Photographic and genetic data pinpoint a specific stall at the market where the coronavirus likely was transmitted from an animal into people. And a genetic analysis estimates the time, within weeks, when not just one but two spillovers occurred. It calculates that the coronavirus jumped into people once in late November or early December and then again few weeks later."

    "At the same time, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention found two variants of the coronavirus inside the market. And an independent study, led by virologists at the University of California, San Diego, suggests these two variants didn't evolve in people, because throughout the entire pandemic, scientists have never detected a variant linking the two together. Altogether, the new studies suggest that, most likely, the two variants evolved inside animals."
     
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