Expecting Spurs to pass us in second half due to their recent (tank) trades, so Rockets statistically are most likely to end up with the third or fourth pick in this year’s draft. May be controversial, but hoping we end up with Brandon Miller (assuming he’s cleared of murder related charges). He appears to be the best player available and is a “lights out” shooter similar to Reggie Miller back in his day.
We’re probably more likely, according to history, to have a better shot at getting 1 if we don’t have the worst record
That's not really how the draft lotto works. Our odds at a top two pick are the exact same whether the Spurs pass us or not, since all of the worst three teams have the exact same odds at top two, and the fourth worst team has almost the same odds. That said, it is true we only have a 28% chance at a top two pick, so the question of who to take after that is worth asking. My choice is Jarace Walker. I was pretty low on Miller even before the whole murder situation, and I'm very low on the Thompsons too. I love Jarace though. He has super high feel on both sides of the court, an awesome defensive motor, a lot of versatility. I think he's going to be a great NBA player.
I'll try to help instead of being mean to OP. So the bottom 3 teams have an equal chance at picks 1-3. Where they differ is in how far you can drop. If you have the worst record, you can fall to 5th. 2nd worst - 6th 3rd worst - 7th If you don't care about where you fall 4-7, then it doesn't matter if you finish with the worst, second to worst, or third to worst record. To answer the other part if we got 3rd and had our pick of the "others" in the draft, I'm not sure yet.
here's the thread OP meant to duplicate https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/the-sleeper-pick-if-no-wemby-or-scoot-anthony-black.318782/
Sometimes I get fourth, then I got second, rarely do I get third or first. I do get fifth tons of times in mock drafts.
IMO - if Rox are ‘picking the field’, i.e. not 1 or 2, I would take odds the pick is traded for talent. And that could be any of a dozen or so solids.
I'd be inclined to trade the pick as well, even for future draft picks to sort of kick the can down the road for a better class. Future draft picks are also really easy to trade anyways. I can't imagine which team would give away a solid player for anyone on the board past Wemby/Scoot though.
a team with a new philosophy, a team with an expensive miscast cog, a team needing a route to get someone else. Lotsa ways this works. Hypothetically, this pick for Simmons/Thomas/both Suns’ unprotected picks.
Who would have imagined the same loudmouth dope, who starts threads every game, about how bad the team is managed, doesn't even understand the basics of how the draft lottery works.
