I think that first sentence is a pretty big false equivalence. Trout produces a number of wins as an individual that are counted toward the teams total; no one expects a single player to carry a team. In contrast, farm systems are judged by the total big league value they produce (or at least, that is how I contend they should be judged), and often that value is concentrated into just a few players. How many teams had farms that graduated rookies who combined to contribute ~5 fwar or more last season? In hindsight, it’s pretty clear that in the 2020-2022 rankings, Pena should have been a grade 55 or 60 prospect. How would that single change have affected their farm system ranking? Now review the same for Javier, Garcia, Brown, and maybe Abreu. Evaluators missing low on just a few guys (giving them 45s when they should really be 50s or 55s) makes a HUGE difference in overall farm rankings.
I agree with this, and it is why the Astros have largely been so successful. The Astros pitching is a perfect example. The Astros ENTIRE rotation is homegrown. Valdez/McCullers/Javier/Garcia/Urquidy That is likely to be a top 3-5 rotation in baseball and largely the same rotation that was the best in baseball last year. None of these guys were top 50 prospects. McCullers and Garcia got some play at the back of the top 100 but that is it. Urquidy, Javier and Valdez were viewed as back of the rotation or bullpen types. How much value does this group REALLY have compared to projections? When we look at the bullpen, we have Abreu and Brown. Abreu was one of the 5 best relievers in all of baseball last year, and I don't think he was ever in the top 100. Brown made the top 100, but it took years for him to get there and is still by many accounts viewed as towards the back of the top 100. The rest of the bullpen is made up of players other teams dumped, were traded for when their value was low or they were in a different role (Pressly). Maton was a throw in, in a trade. Montero was claimed off waivers Stanek was dealt to the Astros so the Rays didn't have to DFA him. Pressly was a dominant middle reliever that the Astros paid going rate for in trade. Neris was viewed as an overpay at the time in free agency. Brown will likely end up in the rotation in the next 18 months. Then if you look at offense........ Altuve is a borderline HOFer that was never a top 100 prospect. Jeremy Pena was a bottom of the top 100 prospects at the end of his tenure in the minors, but never a top prospect. Bregman and Tucker were top prospects, but even Tucker was never in the top 5. Alvarez was a top 100 guy but not a top 5 guy like he should have been. McCormick wasn't even viewed as a prospect. The alleged value of the Astros system over the last 10 years, compared to the ACTUAL value is so incredibly different that it has to be one of the largest gaps in baseball history. Oddly enough, some of the supposed top prospects that the industry loved; Frances Martes (top 10) and Forrest Whitley (top 5) and a pair of first basemen (Singleton and AJ Reed both were top 20)
BPro released their prospect list and have Brown at 60 FV, Gilbert, Dirden, and Barber at 55 FV, and Diaz, Lee, Melton, Leon, Murray, and Corona at 50 FV. Seems very optimistic but I don’t follow their ratings that closely so maybe they are more optimistic in general. Surprised by Dirden and Corona’s ratings. The Astros seem to have a lot of potential quality OF on their hands. Also, Melendez sounds like a mini-Javier with a fastball that plays above its velocity but with obvious command issues.
I think if you ranked all the farms systems evaluating only OF and C, Houston would have a Top 10 system. Even if you added pitching to that, they’d still likely be well above average. The infield is where Houston’s farm is very weak. They have only signed one infielder from the top 4 rounds in a draft in the last 4 years (2019 2nd rounder Grae Kessinger). Their complex league teams should now have good depth but they really lack good prospects at 2B and SS in the full season levels and don’t have any elite infield prospects going into this season. I’m hoping that some of their 2nd/3rd tier IF guys (Perez, Wagner, Santana, Nova, Gonzalez) can take a step forward to give more hope, but really the lack of guys who project as regulars on the dirt is a huge reason why Houston’s farm is ranked so low.
That's an interesting point. Obviously, you'd hope Pena is locked in for years, even Bregman, Altuve, and Abreu are locked in for 2-3 years. Best is to be BPA in the draft, but I wonder if they start pushing infield more in the draft.
Gotta do BPA at least early. Prospect prediction and development is really hard even taking BPA. Trying to focus on a position (not including late picks which can be used to balance minor league rosters) would just add a level of difficulty. I'd rather end up with too many of one type of position and then have trade than trying to balance the rosters in the draft.
I don’t think they should/will ever go against BPA in the top 3-5 rounds. And like I said there should be some good international infield prospects bubbling up over the next couple of years. But I do think we could see them lean toward selecting more infielders in the middle rounds (5-10). Fayettevilles “everyday” infield this season very well could be made up entirely of late round 2022 draft picks (McGowan, Sacco, Loftin, Borden, Dezenzo).
I wonder if they could take one of McCormick/Meyers and flip them for a Yainer Diaz type middle infield prospect.
The Astros have built their winning organization by zigging when the rest of baseball zags. ( then the rest of baseball starts zigging) They also have steadfastly refused to overpay or overreach for players. I wonder how much of the lack of middle infield prospects, shortstops in particular, are other teams taking them too early or signing them for more than the Astros value them?
That would hopefully be a possibility. They have a large group of potential MLB outfielders. Even just this season, Dirden, Leon, Julks, and Meyers could represent trade chips. Beyond that, there are 3-5 OF at every level who are legit prospects. Guys like Corona and Cerny could be very underrated.
My current Most Valuable Prospects list has 15 pitchers and 18 position players on it. 4 catchers competing for 1 starting and 1 bench positions. 9 outfielders competing for 3 starting and 1 bench positions. 5 infielders competing for 4 starting and 1 bench positions. The infield is obviously the thinnest area in the minors but it is actually much worse than it appears. The most versatile and valuable position players should be up the middle players. That includes all the catchers, 6 of the 9 outfielders, and 1 rookie league short stop. All the other infielders are 3rd or 1st baseman.
That is exactly what it is, but it isn't unique to the Astros. Gross last year said that the college outfield market was stronger than usual, and the Astros did take several good ones. With the Braves, Brown made the comment that the high school pitching market was very strong, and if I remember right, they took several of them high. It is very likely the same thing happens this year. I know there is concern about middle infield depth, but they are likely set at SS for a number of years and some of the kids in the system can probably move to the middle infield if necessary. The issue I see, is that most of the Astros best bats in the system are outfielders....... Gilbert, Barber, Leon, Melton, Dirden, Clifford, Baez, Cerney and their lower-level jewel, Kenni Gomez. A lot of these guys can play centerfield, so perhaps they can move them around the diamond.
Not sure why but I have seen several sites label Leon as a 2B. I think Melton, Clifford, and Baez could end up at 1B. I don’t know how Tyler Whitaker looked in the infield but maybe they will move him to SS/3B to give them another lottery ticket there. But given they have 6 years to find a SS and they are extremely likely to extend Altuve, they have time to fix the issue.
I have a little different balance than you do. I have fewer pitchers. There are a few I think have legitimate ability (Jaime Melendez) but overall I have a lot outfielders. The Astros are excellent from a depth perspective at CF and C. However, some of those outfielders can likely transition up the middle if needed. Corona or Cerney for example, and Leon has played some short. I am not concerned personally.
Melendez is underrated. I was bummed he didn’t have more success last year. But if you filter thru the pitchers who reached AA before 20, it is an impressive list with a very high success rate. He is definitely a sleeper and my top pick for next in line on the Valdez>Urquidy>Javier>Garcia>Abreu train.
Leon played some second in Cuba if I remember correctly, and I had a chance to see some of him at SS. He could probably be an MLB SS if he had to be, a lot of rust but the arm and reflexes and fluidity is there.... I wouldn't be surprised if he could be an excellent defensive second baseman. He is someone that can at worst be a super utility guy if injuries and contact remain an issue. I think you and I are on the same page as far as the need going forward. Hell, if they need a utility guy, those cost almost nothing on the open market.
Sorry, just saws this. Farm systems are comprised by multiple teams worth of players. The Angels best player made up 32% of the WAR for the Angels. The ROY for the AL made up 28% of the FV for the Mariners. Pena made up 39% of the perceived value for the Astros Farm last year. He was rated like a ROY candidate, but the Astros farm was still viewed poorly. I may be wrong and the Astros may have a great farm which allows them to make lots of trades this trade deadline, and still have plenty of talent in 3 years once the Astros need some help. I may be wrong that the Astros having depth. Maybe all the pitchers bounce back. On thinking farm systems rated highly need more than just one great player or even 2-3 three that can get ROY votes with little depth, I am not.
I am a huge believer in Melendez. I think he may see some time with the Astros this year. The list of guys that struck out 13 per 9 as a 20 year old in AA must be a short one.
Farm Rankings, at least fangraphs, is a snap shot forward looking prediction solely of the guys currently in a system. You are talking more about something that is measured over time. The Astros are great at developing prospects. They just don't keep them long in the minors (draft college players, fast rising pitchers get called up) such that what the Astros perform worse at the current rankings than what you are talking about. I am judging them on what they are trying to do, I'm not denying that FanGraphs has underrated the Astros the past couple of years, but it isn't that big a change over what the FanGraphs prospect lists said about the Astros. In 2020, the Astros were rated the 3rd best farm for pitching. They weren't sure which of the guys were good, but that the Astros had a lot of pitching. 2021 and 2022 lists basically said Pena and Brown are good to great prospects, but the Astros lack depth. FanGraphs overvalue more guys than they undervalue, typically. Guys go up and down based on performance. When it was clear Pena was a great prospect, he was rated with a FV55. Other guys sucked and lost all their value. Pena should have been rated a FV55 when it wasn't clear if he was going to flame out or not. If the rankings for Pena and Brown were changed to the No. 1 and No. 2 propsects for last year, the Astros would still rank middle of the pack as it takes a lot of guys to rise a lot. 2020, while the Astros were just in the bottom third, it would not have taken much to get them to the upper third. I will say Garcia was a miss big enough to raise the Astros to about average in 2020.
